Euripides Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Well that was a nice deluge. Keep them coming as lawn nice and green. Had two other rounds on Monday with heavy rains around 7:45pm and then around 4am on Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Looks like there will be a surge of +20 C 850s nearby next week. So we are probably looking at 95° to 100° heat to close out the month. this looks drier than previous heat surges. maybe ewr can pull off 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Just had a nice storm move through. Plenty of thunder and lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 tornado warning near red bank. the cell looks legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Sure why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Yeah, I got the top end of the cell and it had a lot of lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Sure why not Ok so a day ago it was suppose to be mostly sunny today and now there is a tornado warning. Yea I think this time the forcast was way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Got TOR warned here in Red Bank. So close, that hook echo passed right overhead Lightning was hitting everywhere. Lost power temp. What a sick storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Got TOR warned here in Red Bank. So close, that hook echo passed right overhead Lightning was hitting everywhere. Lost power temp. What a sick storm. There was likely a tornado on the ground just south of Red Bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: There was likely a tornado on the ground just south of Red Bank I was just going to type if someone south of me saw a funnel I would not be shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, lee59 said: Ok so a day ago it was suppose to be mostly sunny today and now there is a tornado warning. Yea I think this time the forcast was way off. The Euro had chances for convection across the area with the 12z run yesterday. But people often don’t pay attention when the NAM is dry. 12z Tue run 0z Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Hang on down there. It has been an absolutely beautiful morning up here (so far) but I can see the storm just slightly to my SSW sliding by to the east. That's not going to help me ease the precip deficit I've got going but this has been the typical setup for the last 10 weeks or so, I'm pretty much used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Yes...I agree on EC one my go-to's for convection is the KI, very very well modeled by the EC for several cycles and the reasoning for the recent posts about a band of showers this morning NJ-LI. Through this afternoon-eve: Think there is a continued risk of isolated hail/svr LI, maybe coastal CT, into mid afternoon, with the more favored area for severe seemingly over the ocean s of LI. A new southeastward moving line of heavy showers is possible late this afternoon-eve nw NJ into NYC at sunset but that should have less chance of being strong, tho not out of the question briefly a torrent. Fri night-Sunday: More heavy showers and thunderstorms. Fri night-early Saturday is chancey and associated with WAA + moisture transport from the MS-TN low aloft leaking northeastward into the confluence zone. That moisture increase I think sets the stage for slow moving 2-3" pockets of big convection near NYC Sunday afternoon, ahead of the weakening shortwave, in an axis of high CAPE (2000+J), and KI looks fairly large as well along with 90 degree heat. This may become a topic eventually, but not for severe...more so intense rainfall. Right now PWAT is forecast near 1.8"...a little lower than I'd like for Thunderstorm production of 4". Next week: interesting in it's variety of options, including eventual infusion of tropical event moisture and an approaching cold front from the northwest, developing a swath of rather high KI ahead of it and temps-heat index ahead of the front well up in the 90s with near 100 not impossible on both, for one of those days. Forecasting 100 in late August is not smart several days in advance so will favor near 100HI eventually next week, but mid 90s temps (non sea breeze coastal plain locations ), in part due to wind direction and recent wetness. Should become interesting for convection. On eventual Laura/Marco: for now prior to the 29th, the greater moisture contribution seems locked mostly south of 35 N latitude by westerly flow at our latitude but should there be any slow downs of northward advance (northward advance track in the Gulf States has to be west of 70 degrees longitude in order of for a moisture contribution in this projected flow pattern), it then becomes a little more interesting toward the 30th. Below, added an update to yesterdays severe reports, Mid-2AM Monday 8/18. 1108A/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro had chances for convection across the area with the 12z run yesterday. But people often don’t pay attention when the NAM is dry. 12z Tue run 0z Wed Well congrats to the euro for at least giving some showers to the area. So far today here, rainy and cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, wdrag said: Yes...I agree on EC one my go-to's for convection is the KI, very very well modeled by the EC for several cycles and the reasoning for the recent posts about a band of showers this morning NJ-LI. Through this afternoon-eve: Think there is a continued risk of isolated hail/svr LI, maybe coastal CT, into mid afternoon, with the more favored area for severe seemingly over the ocean s of LI. A new southeastward moving line of heavy showers is possible late this afternoon-eve nw NJ into NYC at sunset but that should have less chance of being strong, tho not out of the question briefly a torrent. Fri night-Sunday: More heavy showers and thunderstorms. Fri night-early Saturday is chancey and associated with WAA + moisture transport from the MS-TN low aloft leaking northeastward into the confluence zone. That moisture increase I think sets the stage for slow moving 2-3" pockets of big convection near NYC Sunday afternoon, ahead of the weakening shortwave, in an axis of high CAPE (2000+J), and KI looks fairly large as well along with 90 degree heat. This may become a topic eventually, but not for severe...more so intense rainfall. Right now PWAT is forecast near 1.8"...a little lower than I'd like for Thunderstorm production of 4". Next week: interesting in it's variety of options, including eventual infusion of tropical event moisture and an approaching cold front from the northwest, developing a swath of rather high KI ahead of it and temps-heat index ahead of the front well up in the 90s with near 100 not impossible on both, for one of those days. Forecasting 100 in late August is not smart several days in advance so will favor near 100HI eventually next week, but mid 90s temps (non sea breeze coastal plain locations ), in part due to wind direction and recent wetness. Should become interesting for convection. On eventual Laura/Marco: for now prior to the 29th, the greater moisture contribution seems locked mostly south of 35 N latitude by westerly flow at our latitude but should there be any slow downs of northward advance (northward advance track in the Gulf States has to be west of 70 degrees longitude in order of for a moisture contribution in this projected flow pattern), it then becomes a little more interesting toward the 30th. Below, added an update to yesterdays severe reports, Mid-2AM Monday 8/18. 1108A/19 I think your call of not forecasting near 100 degree temperatures this far out, is smart. Climatology really makes 100 hard this time of year, even at the hot spots like LaGuardia and Newark. Average temperatures are already on the way down and by the end of August will be down some 3-4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 1 minute ago, lee59 said: I think your call of not forecasting near 100 degree temperatures this far out, is smart. Climatology really makes 100 hard this time of year, even at the hot spots like LaGuardia and Newark. Average temperatures are already on the way down and by the end of August will be down some 3-4 degrees. But who would've thought we could reach the mid 90s in early October last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: But who would've thought we could reach the mid 90s in early October last year? climo is dead these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: climo is dead these days I see a METS FAN is watching a Braves fan. On climo... it's biased down. I did go to ACIS and check EWR last 100. Sept 3, 1993. This might need to be rechecked. Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 I'm sure @bluewave @SACRUSor @donsutherland1 has the stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, wdrag said: I see a METS FAN is watching a Braves fan. On climo... it's biased down. I did go to ACIS and check EWR last 100. Sept 3, 1993. This might need to be rechecked. Walt You meant latest 100, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: But who would've thought we could reach the mid 90s in early October last year? It was an interesting first week of Oct here in 2019... 10/2/19: High of 87 10/5/19: First Frost of the Season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 850's weren't even above 20c in sept 1993. ewr couldn't break 100 with higher 850's this july Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Pic from Red Bank sent from my sister. Not her picture but sent from a friend who is a Police officer in Red bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: It was an interesting first week of Oct here in 2019... 10/2/19: High of 87 10/5/19: First Frost of the Season Lets see what we can do to move that first frost out to early or even mid November. Thanx. Well, I did get wet but just barely. All of the local stations are down but I don't think it was any more than .1". I guess that keeping the soil in the garden beds moist for days is all I can ask for, the cool temps are a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, Rjay said: You meant latest 100, right? Yes... I'll check again. Let's check last 100 at EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Just checked LGA was 95 on Sep 3, 1993. So until someone says I have it wrong, I'll go w EWR last 100 on Sep 3. Probably moot to discuss much more than what we have, except we all know...it's warmer these recent decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 off the top of my head there were two summers that had its hottest temprature of the summer on 9/22...1895 hit 97 and 1914 hit 95...1970 tied its hottest day on 9/22 with a 94... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Newark max temps from treaded extremes... http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/ 9/1 98 in 2010 96 in 1953 95 in 1980+ 9/2 105 in 1953 98 in 1980 97 in 1944 9/3 100 in 1993 95 in 2018 95 in 2015 9/4 95 in 2018 95 in 1973 95 in 1964 9/5 94 in 1985 94 in 1961 92 in 1973 9/6 98 in 2018 97 in 1983 95 in 2014 9/7 95 in 2015 93 in 2010 92 in 1945 9/8 98 in 2015 94 in 1939 93 in 2010+ 9/9 94 in 1964 93 in 2016 92 in 1971+ 9/10 98 in 1983 97 in 1989 95 in 1931 9/11 99 in 1983 96 in 2013 96 in 1964+ 9/12 95 in 1961 93 in 2005 90 in 1952+ 9/13 94 in 2005 94 in 1952 93 in 1957+ 9/14 94 in 2016 92 in 2008 92 in 1931 9/15 94 in 1993 91 in 1942 89 in 1947 9/16 95 in 1991 92 in 1970 91 in 1958+ 9/17 95 in 1991 93 in 1972 91 in 1994 9/18 90 in 1992 90 in 1948 89 in 1965 9/19 93 in 1983 89 in 1946 88 in 2005+ 9/20 92 in 1983 88 in 1946 87 in 1985 9/21 90 in 1940 88 in 1998 88 in 1980 9/22 94 in 1970 93 in 1931 92 in 1980 9/23 94 in 1970 93 in 2019 93 in 1959 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, wdrag said: Just checked LGA was 95 on Sep 3, 1993. So until someone says I have it wrong, I'll go w EWR last 100 on Sep 3. Probably moot to discuss much more than what we have, except we all know...it's warmer these recent decades. That is Newark’s latest 100 degree reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.