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July Discobs 2020

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22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

1.10" in the last 24 hours, and right about 5" for the month now. Hopefully more to come tomorrow.

Tomorrow night could be one of those rare nights where there's storms basically all night long. 

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Tomorrow night could be one of those rare nights where there's storms basically all night long. 

Yeah looks like a legit front(for July) with an upper level perturbation, and a set up that supports slow movers/training/back building. Should be juicy, and some places are likely going to see some heavy rain.

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We got raked with this line in the Oakton/Vienna area.  Easily the strongest TS event this year with gusts ivo 60? (a guess).  Lots of trees down and power outages throughout our area and FFCO as a whole.  Our power has been out ever since the outflow rushed through and still is - large tree took out the high-voltage lines on Lawyers Road that services our entire area.  

Thankful things cooled off when the line went through and it rained long enough to cool down the house.  Temp has been steady in the low 70's ever since.  Have a generator but not big enough to run the AC.  Still no prognosis from Dominion on when power will be restored.  

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Crazy storm last night here in Harford County. I haven't seen winds like that in a while. Large branches down all over my neighborhood. Heard a crazy woosh noise...possible microburst? 3.25" of rain and a fully flooded basement :/

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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Set a new daily rainfall record with 2.05 inches, all falling in two separate Tstorms about 2 hours apart yesterday evening. Old mark was 1.29 from 1980. So, for the month I am now at 3.92 inches, BUT 1.72 fell on 6th and 2.05 on 23rd. Rest of the month has been dry, dry, dry. 

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Excessive rainfall discussion from WPC-

South/Central Appalachians/OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Ahead of this boundary, very moist and unstable air will be in place. Some weak impulses moving atop this environment should support scattered to widespread convection. Precipitable water values will climb to around 2 inches aided by light southwesterly flow. This is around 1.5-2 standard deviations above the mean. Instability will be modest with MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. While convection is expected to move at a decent pace eastward, multiple rounds moving over pockets of lower FFG could result in isolated flash flooding across this region. Not to mention, as the front starts to sag south across southern New England, the propagation vectors will align with the mean wind parallel to the front. This will result in training of convection in some locations. Given this and the convection observed from yesterdays activity, a Marginal Risk was expanded across a large portion of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic southward into southern Appalachians and north into the OH Valley. Worked with the local offices and coordinated an upgrade to a Slight Risk across much of the central/southern Appalachians where HREF probabilities were fairly decent and FFG values were fairly low.

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31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Excessive rainfall discussion from WPC-

South/Central Appalachians/OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Ahead of this boundary, very moist and unstable air will be in place. Some weak impulses moving atop this environment should support scattered to widespread convection. Precipitable water values will climb to around 2 inches aided by light southwesterly flow. This is around 1.5-2 standard deviations above the mean. Instability will be modest with MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. While convection is expected to move at a decent pace eastward, multiple rounds moving over pockets of lower FFG could result in isolated flash flooding across this region. Not to mention, as the front starts to sag south across southern New England, the propagation vectors will align with the mean wind parallel to the front. This will result in training of convection in some locations. Given this and the convection observed from yesterdays activity, a Marginal Risk was expanded across a large portion of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic southward into southern Appalachians and north into the OH Valley. Worked with the local offices and coordinated an upgrade to a Slight Risk across much of the central/southern Appalachians where HREF probabilities were fairly decent and FFG values were fairly low.

yassss more rain please! 

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Disturbance heading over WV should fire some storms up in the region later this afternoon. Satellite shows clouds burning off over the DC-Balt region which should aid in destabilization

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In classic DC fashion the monthly 90-degree record of 25 no longer looks like a simple victory. 

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19 minutes ago, Ian said:

In classic DC fashion the monthly 90-degree record of 25 no longer looks like a simple victory. 

Still tracking for 3rd hottest all-time, even with the cool down at the end of the month.

  Day of Month Max Min Cumulative Average  
July 1-20   1860 1498 3358 84.0 Actuals
Tuesday, July 21, 2020 21 97 76 3531 84.1 Actuals
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 22 94 74 3699 84.1 Actuals
Thursday, July 23, 2020 23 93 75 3867 84.1 NWS Forecast
Friday, July 24, 2020 24 89 74 4030 84.0 NWS Forecast
Saturday, July 25, 2020 25 91 73 4194 83.9 NWS Forecast
Sunday, July 26, 2020 26 95 74 4363 83.9 NWS Forecast
Monday, July 27, 2020 27 96 76 4535 84.0 NWS Forecast
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 28 94 78 4707 84.1 NWS Forecast
Wednesday, July 29, 2020 29 90 75 4872 84.0 GFS/Euro blend
Thursday, July 30, 2020 30 82.5 73.5 5028 83.8 GFS/Euro blend
Friday, July 31, 2020 31 81 70.5 5179.5 83.5 GFS/Euro blend
             
90 degree days - current   21   July 2011 84.5  
90 degree days - forecast   27   July 2012 84.0  
90 degree day - record   25   July 2010 83.1  
        July 1993 83.1  
        July 1999 83.0  
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54 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Still tracking for 3rd hottest all-time, even with the cool down at the end of the month.

  Day of Month Max Min Cumulative Average  
July 1-20   1860 1498 3358 84.0 Actuals
Tuesday, July 21, 2020 21 97 76 3531 84.1 Actuals
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 22 94 74 3699 84.1 Actuals
Thursday, July 23, 2020 23 93 75 3867 84.1 NWS Forecast
Friday, July 24, 2020 24 89 74 4030 84.0 NWS Forecast
Saturday, July 25, 2020 25 91 73 4194 83.9 NWS Forecast
Sunday, July 26, 2020 26 95 74 4363 83.9 NWS Forecast
Monday, July 27, 2020 27 96 76 4535 84.0 NWS Forecast
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 28 94 78 4707 84.1 NWS Forecast
Wednesday, July 29, 2020 29 90 75 4872 84.0 GFS/Euro blend
Thursday, July 30, 2020 30 82.5 73.5 5028 83.8 GFS/Euro blend
Friday, July 31, 2020 31 81 70.5 5179.5 83.5 GFS/Euro blend
             
90 degree days - current   21   July 2011 84.5  
90 degree days - forecast   27   July 2012 84.0  
90 degree day - record   25   July 2010 83.1  
        July 1993 83.1  
        July 1999 83.0  

July 2011 was a beast.

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

NAM and HRRR looked unimpressed with potential for today.

Those both had nothing for me Monday and tuesday and I got rain.  It also screwed up the DC split too.  

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Still tracking for 3rd hottest all-time, even with the cool down at the end of the month.

  Day of Month Max Min Cumulative Average  
July 1-20   1860 1498 3358 84.0 Actuals
Tuesday, July 21, 2020 21 97 76 3531 84.1 Actuals
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 22 94 74 3699 84.1 Actuals
Thursday, July 23, 2020 23 93 75 3867 84.1 NWS Forecast
Friday, July 24, 2020 24 89 74 4030 84.0 NWS Forecast
Saturday, July 25, 2020 25 91 73 4194 83.9 NWS Forecast
Sunday, July 26, 2020 26 95 74 4363 83.9 NWS Forecast
Monday, July 27, 2020 27 96 76 4535 84.0 NWS Forecast
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 28 94 78 4707 84.1 NWS Forecast
Wednesday, July 29, 2020 29 90 75 4872 84.0 GFS/Euro blend
Thursday, July 30, 2020 30 82.5 73.5 5028 83.8 GFS/Euro blend
Friday, July 31, 2020 31 81 70.5 5179.5 83.5 GFS/Euro blend
             
90 degree days - current   21   July 2011 84.5  
90 degree days - forecast   27   July 2012 84.0  
90 degree day - record   25   July 2010 83.1  
        July 1993 83.1  
        July 1999 83.0  

We do have some room although have not tested what would bring it below 2010. NBM is 83.6, which is down 0.2 from last night. 90 deg today would make me more comfortable on the count win. My gut says we will get it. 

nbm-conus-KDCA-daily_tmin_tmax-5512800.thumb.png.d10d67eae4087f6c3339b5eee00794de.png

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1 hour ago, H2O said:

Those both had nothing for me Monday and tuesday and I got rain.  It also screwed up the DC split too.  

The CAMs have sucked the past few days. Must be something about this type of pattern/ air mass, with generally hard to pinpoint regions of forcing.

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The CAMs have sucked the past few days. Must be something about this type of pattern/ air mass, with generally hard to pinpoint regions of forcing.

Dare I say the GFS has done pretty well?

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dare I say the GFS has done pretty well?

Yeah reasonably well, considering its not able to capture the fine details at a localized scale, like the CAMs are supposed to do lol.

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Hrrr has the party going through the overnight as well.  Looking at Nam  h5 vorticity it looks to support some extra forcing overnight . I'm rooting for 4 convective rounds imby totalling 2-3" :raining:

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4 hours ago, Ian said:

In classic DC fashion the monthly 90-degree record of 25 no longer looks like a simple victory. 

We did it. We're a heat town.

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