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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures rose only into the 80s across much of the region. Parts of Long Island and the Connecticut shore remained in the 70s. Tomorrow will likely be somewhat warmer. Late in the week, parts of the region could be impacted by some tropical moisture. At that time parts of the area could see some rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

With a high temperature of 90°, Washington, DC registered its 12th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 11-22, 2019 when the temperature also reached 90° or above on 12 consecutive days.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change as July progresses, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was -3.08.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.084.

On July 6, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.607 (RMM). That was the fourth highest amplitude on record for July when the MJO was in Phase 1. The July 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.496.

That was the 17th consecutive day the MJO was in Phase 1. The last time the MJO had a longer stretch in Phase 1 occurred during September 21-October 8, 2019 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for 18 consecutive days. In addition, the MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 37 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0°.

 

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7 hours ago, FPizz said:

Yup, super dry here.  Rained here yesterday for about 4 minutes.  

Had a friend over today and she lives 1 mile from here and said they got a downpour yesterday afternoon...I said it looked like we were surrounded by storms and could hear the thunder, but over my house was bright sunshine...not a drop...

That storm a couple hours ago developed right over us it looked like on radar...nothing again

It's really really dry now...

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The next 8 days are averaging 84degs., or 6degs. AN.

Target July 17 to be 100.     2 of 3 models are in the hundreds.      Earlier I mentioned the GFS had July 16 zeroed in as the hottest day in NYC history at >>>> 88/108----a double record.

The next 17 days on the GFS are >>>>> 78/95 = 86.5 = +9.5.      This would put July at  about +7.7[84.3] by the 25th.    Not likely.

GFS is 2.5" with 35mph winds on Friday AM.

75* here at 6am, (93%RH) thin overcast.

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77/73 Florida Feel.   Low clouds burning off but already storms into EPA (mostly NE PA) right now.  Yesterday anyone north i-195 was low / mid 80s with ares just south (TTN) near or at 90.  Warm and wet (Florida-like) pattern continues the next 4 days.  Today steamy but clouds should hinder widespread 90s but also may inhibit a Monday replay.  Thursday is a beach day much like Tuesday perhaps a tinge warmer as 850 temps are near 20C.  By Friday  lat morning / early afternoon, as had been well modeled,  the low should ride the coast from DE/MD into LI and provide a swath of rains to make up the May - Jun deficit 2 - 4 inches of rain (locally more) this is in addition to the 2 - 3 we have had the last 7 days. Storm pulls out by Sat afternoon.

Beyond that warm and less wet as we get to Sunday 7/12 through Tue 7/14 with mainly upper 80s - near 90.  Park needs some time to dry out.  By 7/15 very strong ridge building into the GL, Mid West and Northeast.  Western Atlantic ridge building west to o in the period will enhance heights perhaps ner 600 Dm over the Mid west. Between 7/15 and at least 7/20 could be hottest air- mass of the season.  Perhaps EWR and others may see the return of triple digits in this period.  Hve to watch anything undercutting the ridge but that would likely be towards the southeast.  Tropical acitivity may also become more active.

 

July precip totals

TEB: 3.02
New Brnswk: 2.12
EWR: 1.92
NYC: 0.73
TTN: 0.53
JFK: 0.51
LGA: 0.41

 

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56 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Its been around although this seems to be and having staying power.  A

 

54 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Can only keep it at bay for so long. Was just a question of when and for how long once it arrives.

Yep, you will have the heat in the Midwest coming east along with the war to are East.

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20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Could easily stay east and affect mostly coastal locations 

Precip looks to pivot N&W west even if it stays east. We'd likely get some tropical enhancement due to its close proximity. 

Also if it stays broad and/or subtropical which is more likely then the location of the CoC won't matter much in terms of impact. 

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