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ORH_wxman

Winter 2020-2021

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41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like there’s still a lot of sentiment for anything but a huge winter. Some are going decent and others going below average and others going full-on ratter. 

 

What are you going?

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On 11/5/2020 at 1:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/11/winter-outlook-2020-2021-mixed-type-la.html

 

Here is my winter outlook, if you are looking for something to pass the time, while a team of molasses molecules counts the NV ballots.

The abridged version is linked....there are also options for more technical discussion of the telconnections if so desired.

Most wintery period looks to be December, and potentially another bout in March, but it may very well just result in a cold spring...as last season did.

 

2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I'll take a good end of December and good January, my hopes for an epic year are fading. You coming out with your forecast soon Ray?

 

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2 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

don’t really care to read an NYC forecast seeing as I live in New England and am posting in a New England thread

It might be NYC centric but it shows New England as well

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Has anyone looked at 85-86 as a possible analog?  The La Niña was much weaker but the QBO looks similar, November was very mild and there was an active Atlantic tropical period that month as well like this year 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Judas Priest 

 

He bases his thoughts for the entire winter on the PV, which is a flawed methodology. PV is strong.....yes. No one expects much blocking this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean winter cancel. He also gets too carried away when guidance wanes on PV intensity because it's not the only factor.

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23 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Lol just trying to reel in a few snow weenies on the edge.

For the informed S W’s that are well versed on terms, content and concepts you may be successful. For some of us ignorance is still bliss. We should stay happy, at least, until the first sun angle post shows up around December 22nd. As always ....

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On 11/14/2020 at 6:56 PM, PhineasC said:

SSW is always the Hail Mary play of the desperate snow weenie. 

X 100 

Haven’t been in this thread a while . 

looks Fugly , thankfully seasonal forecasting has big holes . Isotherm forecast looks good for Gradient winters  in New England  , seems to me many will have their hopes up higher than they should bc they are in northern SNE, when you want to me north of Winny .

Ill take a lockdown, 20 K in stimulus payments and a three month rental in Jay or Somewhere elevated N of Jackson with people .
 

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This may have been mentioned before but didn't the epic late December to early Feb run in 2010-11 not show up on the long range models until Mid December? I know technology in general has advanced in 9 years but I'd like to wait until we get in December before getting to concerned about this winter sucking.  

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27 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

This may have been mentioned before but didn't the epic late December to early Feb run in 2010-11 not show up on the long range models until Mid December? I know technology in general has advanced in 9 years but I'd like to wait until we get in December before getting to concerned about this winter sucking.  

2010-2011 was weird in that the pattern actually got pretty damned good in early December, but we got skunked for like 2 weeks straight. Huge -NAO and active PJ, but we still found a way to get a massive cutter in there and then everything else got shredded in poorly-timed meat grinders.

We finally got a storm to retrograde underneath the massive block in the Dec 20-21 timeframe that hammered Cape Cod (and parts of Maine?) and gave 2-4" to the rest of us in New England, and then of course the Boxing Day model bust.

Then we relaxed the pattern a bit around New Years before going into the epic January 2011 stretch. The model guidance didn't really "see" an epic stretch per say. It showed a persistently favorable pattern though without any warmups. We had the big -NAO until the 1/12/11 storm and then we actually went into a bit of a +PNA pattern for a time before another weak NAO block formed and then was erased in the 1/27/11 storm. We had loaded dice and they kept coming up 7s for us is essentially what happened.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We also had the Boxing day event surprise, too.

I mentioned boxing day in the part you bolded. :lol:

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

2010-2011 was weird in that the pattern actually got pretty damned good in early December, but we got skunked for like 2 weeks straight. Huge -NAO and active PJ, but we still found a way to get a massive cutter in there and then everything else got shredded in poorly-timed meat grinders.

We finally got a storm to retrograde underneath the massive block in the Dec 20-21 timeframe that hammered Cape Cod (and parts of Maine?) and gave 2-4" to the rest of us in New England, and then of course the Boxing Day model bust.

Then we relaxed the pattern a bit around New Years before going into the epic January 2011 stretch. The model guidance didn't really "see" an epic stretch per say. It showed a persistently favorable pattern though without any warmups. We had the big -NAO until the 1/12/11 storm and then we actually went into a bit of a +PNA pattern for a time before another weak NAO block formed and then was erased in the 1/27/11 storm. We had loaded dice and they kept coming up 7s for us is essentially what happened.

I don't know if a January will ever top that one for SVT and WMASS.  Savoy reported 48 inches from the 1/12/11 storm.  I'll have to post the pictures if I can find them.  Crazy the amount of huge storms we had in that 18 month stretch.  "Snowicane" storm of late Jan 2010 dropped 2-3 feet of cement above 1800K feet in most of the hills around here, Boxing day was a couple feet of wind swept snow in Savoy, 1/12/11 48" at Savoy, OCTObomb was 30" at low elevation berkshire east. We haven't really had a biggie since. 

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On 11/15/2020 at 11:01 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

LC has punted the rest of November, all of December and the beginning of Jan..........

We tried to tell him. 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He was always on the mild December train...expects a big pattern flip in January.

He had the whole country under nuclear winter. :lol: 

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