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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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28 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I guess we’ll have to hope for a well timed eye wall replacement cycle for this not to be as devastating as it seems destined to be?

I doubt there is enough time to matter much, but every little bit helps I guess. That surge is going to be severe if not devestating.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna be a 5

Hype is in Full effect.  Not really sure if the landfall region is greatly populated or not.

Forecasters project that some coastal areas near the Texas-Louisiana border could see "unsurvivable" storm surge, which could impact areas up to 30 miles inland.

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/26/906203511/hurricane-laura-forecast-to-bring-unsurvivable-storm-surge-as-category-4-storm?fbclid=IwAR3lt9Ij-Iuw7mS0eWO0yNHjuAuNcyLq5V5mYx5KbbGd8PCfIh1E-NcRS54

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10 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Negative, unless this shifts more west. 

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200900 2755N 09228W 6953 02815 9652 +131 +131 131132 136 113 050 00
200930 2756N 09227W 6961 02841 9687 +128 +128 133132 133 113 049 00
201000 2757N 09226W 6970 02852 9707 +131 +131 133130 133 106 021 00
201030 2758N 09225W 6971 02875 9747 +126 +126 135128 130 102 019 00

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13 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:
200900 2755N 09228W 6953 02815 9652 +131 +131 131132 136 113 050 00
200930 2756N 09227W 6961 02841 9687 +128 +128 133132 133 113 049 00
201000 2757N 09226W 6970 02852 9707 +131 +131 133130 133 106 021 00
201030 2758N 09225W 6971 02875 9747 +126 +126 135128 130 102 019 00

Code to a hack?

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Code to a hack?

I think there is a site for that need to find it but the first line would be  136 knots flight level and 113 is SFMR and 50 is rain rate.. the pressure is the 6th column

 

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1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

In fairness, the "unsurvivable" is coming directly from the NHC. You can argue whether that's hype or not, but it's not the result of media blowing it out of proportion. 

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

NWS Lake Charles has evacuated.  10' Msl, surge expected 15 feet

I would say it's a pretty small list of NWS offices this vulnerable to storm surge. 

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There's a FEMA .kmz file you can download and display on Google Earth. The 100 year flood zone extends inland about 25 miles from the coast. It does not appear there is many that live in this area, but I sure as hell hope those folks that do evacuate to higher ground. 

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

In fairness, the "unsurvivable" is coming directly from the NHC. You can argue whether that's hype or not, but it's not the result of media blowing it out of proportion. 

I would say it's a pretty small list of NWS offices this vulnerable to storm surge. 

I know it’s far away but LCH Radar is showing 160 plus mph at height, SFMR showing 153 mph now

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There really are no good beach cams in Louisiana where This is heading. Good news is that speaks to probably the last populated 50 mile swath of coastline on gulf ?

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I know it’s far away but LCH Radar is showing 160 plus mph at height, SFMR showing 153 mph now

Yeah it's far away, but it's still at the upper end of what has been sampled on radars before. Not playing around with this one.

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15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah it's far away, but it's still at the upper end of what has been sampled on radars before. Not playing around with this one.

 

20200826_193021.jpg

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7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

937mb.   Port Arthur is going to take a beating.  Wonder if heating oil is produced there?   Maybe time to quickly fill up the oil tanks before prices go up the next few days??

Gonna have to go due North now to go East of LCH

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gonna have to go due North now to go east of LCH

 

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gonna have to go due North now to go East of LCH

 

350d8667-351b-4688-994f-3432aee85bc8.gif

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17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

937mb.   Port Arthur is going to take a beating.  Wonder if heating oil is produced there?   Maybe time to quickly fill up the oil tanks before prices go up the next few days??

Lots of refining and storage there

Largest refinery in the US

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Resin suppliers have implemented two price increase, One in July and one in Aug and just announced another one for Sept as prices for polyethylene is on the rise.

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26 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

937mb.   Port Arthur is going to take a beating.  Wonder if heating oil is produced there?   Maybe time to quickly fill up the oil tanks before prices go up the next few days??

I was just looking at the aerial view of Port Arthur. The amount of chemical/oil industry there is eye opening.  The size of the Valero refinery is incredible. Its looks to be over 2 miles wide. 

Are these places designed for a direct hit? If not the environmental impact is going to be huge. There is a huge BASF chemical plant just the North as well.

 

Screenshot_20200826-195253_Maps.jpg

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