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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Personally, no but that’s due to my location within a county park. The area in general, yes, my infant grandson was disturbed numerous times last night while trying to go to sleep where my son lives in Middletown.  There was an article in the local paper this morning about the issue. 

Yeah very inconsiderate to be setting those things off late at night, other than on the 4th.

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Yeah the 4th should be wild this year...dont mind it then. We used to have tons of stuff when I was younger...was legal back then I believe.

as a kid I wasn't allowed to get fireworks...the next day I would round up all the duds and light them up...back in the 1960's it was a war zone in my neighborhood...If you drove you were a moving target for cherry bombs...

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41 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Expect it’s been record heat after record heat to our north, 90s literally everyday

Unusual ring of ridging to our north across the Northern Hemisphere since last late May. Keeps us in an easterly flow with record warmth to our north and west.  So we get these omega block type patterns that occasionally extend into Northern New England. The first in late May had the new May all-time high temperature for BTV. Most recently, CAR had their all-time June high. Albany recorded a daily record high yesterday. The models now continue this general pattern into at least early July. So this year we are getting and early summer pattern that actually began in late May.

531535D9-83EC-46DD-93DD-80C9C2BE9F74.gif.1d3ce85208dde4aec016938b730e0f1e.gif

FAD51BE2-FC52-44B8-B31B-3AF75D866FA1.thumb.png.fb7fddc89f9359af04d0aceef7d5d39b.png

 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

one of those years the heat just want to get here-basically the reverse of winter where the cold never came

If you like heat it's like its too hot for your own good. Record warmth shooting past us

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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave the euro lost the heat for next week and has temps in the 70’s 

Whenever you see that trough build northeast of us, this year expect it to strengthen and expand. The number of days with primarily a westerly wind is a small fraction of the days with a southerly or easterly wind in the last 3-4 months. 

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54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unusual ring of ridging to our north across the Northern Hemisphere since last late May. Keeps us in an easterly flow with record warmth to our north and west.  So we get these omega block type patterns that occasionally extend into Northern New England. The first in late May had the new May all-time high temperature for BTV. Most recently, CAR had their all-time June high. Albany recorded a daily record high yesterday. The models now continue this general pattern into at least early July. So this year we are getting and early summer pattern that actually began in late May.

531535D9-83EC-46DD-93DD-80C9C2BE9F74.gif.1d3ce85208dde4aec016938b730e0f1e.gif

FAD51BE2-FC52-44B8-B31B-3AF75D866FA1.thumb.png.fb7fddc89f9359af04d0aceef7d5d39b.png

 

in 2018 we had to wait for the subtropical ridge expansion to give us more S to SW flow and we got hot toward august 

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22 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Another euro fantasy heatwave or you think this is legit? 

if we get a hot spell it will be from an atlantic ridge retrograde which can push any cutoff far enough to our east. the classic plains heat releases are just not working out this year

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

in 2018 we had to wait for the subtropical ridge expansion to give us more S to SW flow and we got hot toward august 

This is one of those rare times when the WAR forecast has been getting weaker day 8 from day 10. We got used to the pattern of it correcting stronger day 8-10. The trough digging into the West also was a signal for an easy high temperature guidance beat. Maybe a combo of the developing La Niña, Indian Ocean warmth, and that perma-heat ridge which has been stuck over a Siberia.

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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is one of those rare times when the WAR forecast has been getting weaker day 8 from day 10. We got used to the pattern of it correcting stronger day 8-10. The trough digging into the West also was a signal for an easy high temperature guidance beat. Maybe a combo of the developing La Niña, Indian Ocean warmth, and that perma-heat ridge which has been stuck over a Siberia.

Should make for an interesting winter forecast. 

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

if we get a hot spell it will be from an atlantic ridge retrograde which can push any cutoff far enough to our east. the classic plains heat releases are just not working out this year

there wont be any ultra hot spells with a S wind, be content for temps in the low 90s.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is one of those rare times when the WAR forecast has been getting weaker day 8 from day 10. We got used to the pattern of it correcting stronger day 8-10. The trough digging into the West also was a signal for an easy high temperature guidance beat. Maybe a combo of the developing La Niña, Indian Ocean warmth, and that perma-heat ridge which has been stuck over a Siberia.

Did you read about this incredible heat and forest fires in Siberia?  They've been +20 F in heat for like six months now and just hit 100 F- first time ever north of the arctic circle!

Unprecedented heat in Siberia which the media isn't really talking about.

I've noticed hotter temps occurring farther north this year, seems like the attic fire that started in the high Arctic has spread farther south and has now reached northern VT and Maine with temps approaching 100 there, all time records.

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1274880733052469249

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1274757559216476160

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1 ... 3052469249


that has videos of the fires in northern Siberia

here is the official record of the 100.4 temp at Verhoyansk

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/stat ... 9216476160

 

We've already seen the negative effects of a snowless winter here......nasty explosion of bugs this year, with a horde of gnats near my Poconos home that makes working in my garden impossible.  I thought it was just this community but when I went down the mountain to a nearby town, they were mobbing people there too!  I've also had to spray bug barrier throughout my other home on Long Island, where I now have wolf spiders along with their eggs (eek), I saw one in my bedroom and could not sleep there for a week!  They are hairy, with warning stripes on their legs, black and grey (to warn others of being poisonous) and I haven't had these in a decade or so.  I sprayed so much bug barrier to get rid of them that my throat and nose were burning!  I just hope I dont get any centipedes later on, because I haven't had them in a long time either.....it's the combo of a warm wet winter followed by a warm wet spring and now this hot humid weather that has caused this population explosion of bugs.  I wish all the birds I get in both gardens would eat them all up, but they seem to be content singing and taking baths in my pond!  We also have a 50% reduction in monarch butterflies (an important pollinator) because of pesticides killing their favorite food, milkweed, as well as the changing climate.  But now everyone is planting milkweed along the roads and highways, so maybe they will have a comeback?

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20 hours ago, uncle W said:

 

some summer heat records for NYC...the 11 yr hot summer cycle years of 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010 made one or both lists...

Extreme heat days 95 or higher for NYC.....

16 in 1955

13 in 1988

12 in 1953

12 in 1993

12 in 1999

12 in 2002

10 in 1944

10 in 1980

9.. in 2005

9.. in 1983

9.. in 1966

8.. in 1963

8.. in 1991

8.. in 2010

...…...…...……….

Hottest week...

high low mean max ..

98.0 76.9 87.4 102 7/07-7/13 1993

98.4 76.3 87.4 104 7/15-7/21 1977

98.3 76.0 87.1 102 8/29-9/04 1953

95.1 78.9 87.0 .98. 8/05-8/11 1896

95.7 77.9 86.8 104 7/18-7/24 2011

94.6 79.0 86.8 .98. 7/14-7/20 2013

95.3 78.0 86.7 .99. 8/09-8/15 1988

96.6 75.1 85.9 102 8/11-8/17 1944

96.1 75.2 85.7 100 8/01-8/07 1955

95.3 75.9 85.6 103 8/04-8/10 2001

94.9 76.1 85.5 102 7/16-7/22 1980

97.3 73.6 85.4 102 7/17-7/23 1991

95.7 75.1 85.4 .98. 8/28-9/03 1973

94.1 76.7 85.4 .96. 7/12-7/18 1981

94.3 76.4 85.4 103 7/04-7/10 2010

95.4 75.1 85.3 100 7/17-7/23 1955

yeah I doubt this is one of those extreme heat years....S wind doesn't do it here.  Good for low and perhaps some mid 90s later on in the season though.

Next summer is going to be off to the races though no doubt.

 

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44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did you read about this incredible heat and forest fires in Siberia?  They've been +20 F in heat for like six months now and just hit 100 F- first time ever north of the arctic circle!

Unprecedented heat in Siberia which the media isn't really talking about.

I've noticed hotter temps occurring farther north this year, seems like the attic fire that started in the high Arctic has spread farther south and has now reached northern VT and Maine with temps approaching 100 there, all time records.

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1274880733052469249

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1274757559216476160

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1 ... 3052469249


that has videos of the fires in northern Siberia

here is the official record of the 100.4 temp at Verhoyansk

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/stat ... 9216476160

 

We've already seen the negative effects of a snowless winter here......nasty explosion of bugs this year, with a horde of gnats near my Poconos home that makes working in my garden impossible.  I thought it was just this community but when I went down the mountain to a nearby town, they were mobbing people there too!  I've also had to spray bug barrier throughout my other home on Long Island, where I now have wolf spiders along with their eggs (eek), I saw one in my bedroom and could not sleep there for a week!  They are hairy, with warning stripes on their legs, black and grey (to warn others of being poisonous) and I haven't had these in a decade or so.  I sprayed so much bug barrier to get rid of them that my throat and nose were burning!  I just hope I dont get any centipedes later on, because I haven't had them in a long time either.....it's the combo of a warm wet winter followed by a warm wet spring and now this hot humid weather that has caused this population explosion of bugs.  I wish all the birds I get in both gardens would eat them all up, but they seem to be content singing and taking baths in my pond!  We also have a 50% reduction in monarch butterflies (an important pollinator) because of pesticides killing their favorite food, milkweed, as well as the changing climate.  But now everyone is planting milkweed along the roads and highways, so maybe they will have a comeback?

Almost like the Siberian version of our December 2015 +13 departure lasting for months. Wonder what our actual departures would be for a 5 month equivalent 5 sigma event?

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Almost like the Siberian version of our December 2015 +13 departure lasting for months. Wonder what our actual departures would be for a 5 month equivalent 5 sigma event?

 

 

wow further down in that thread they show this was almost 5x bigger than their next most significant warming period

 

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