• Member Statistics

    15,843
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    maley.chris78@gmail.com
    Newest Member
    [email protected]
    Joined
Rtd208

May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Pouring here now, probably about 1/2” so far. Much needed. Soil is bone dry

North of the LIE special.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sw Suffolk got crushed all morning. Missed that band up here

Tail end of the slow moving cutoff that lead to those two dam failures in Michigan.

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, psv88 said:

I used to go there all the time. In the winter you can stand on that rock and see pretty far. 

On a clear day you can just make out the ocean looking south down the trail, especially in winter.  I've read that in the past you could also see the sound, but the trees have obstructed that view since.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Classic May Backdoor

It’s been a while since we had a cold pool off the coast in late May like this.

260C42D7-5109-4D99-8EDC-6828C7C7C756.gif.30a6322f390f0808ef5eb024c0af0afd.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s been a while since we had a cold pool off the coast in late May like this.

260C42D7-5109-4D99-8EDC-6828C7C7C756.gif.30a6322f390f0808ef5eb024c0af0afd.gif

 

Am surprised to see Gulf temperatures actually below normal, there was lots of comment about the Gulf being much warmer than usual. What happened?

Meanwhile, it seems 'the blob' has reappeared off Alaska, which bodes ill for the local fisheries.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, etudiant said:

Am surprised to see Gulf temperatures actually below normal, there was lots of comment about the Gulf being much warmer than usual. What happened?

Meanwhile, it seems 'the blob' has reappeared off Alaska, which bodes ill for the local fisheries.

lots of cold fronts in april and early may went down to the gulf coast cooling the gulf..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today, parts of the region experienced periods of rain, some of which was briefly heavy. Through 9 pm rainfall amounts included:

Atlantic City: 0.55"
Bridgeport: 0.04"
Islip: 0.01"
New York City: 0.65"
Newark: 0.79"
Philadelphia: 1.08"

Tomorrow and Memorial Day should feature partly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures appear likely during the closing days of May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May.

The SOI has continued to experience an increased tendency for positive values during May. For the May 1-23 period, the SOI was positive on 16 (70%) days. In April, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could continue to cool.

The SOI was -4.42 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.027.

On May 22, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.232 (RMM). The May 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.158.

Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to June. The May 21 0z EPS weeklies remained consistent with earlier EPS guidance favoring a cooler than normal June. The CFSv2 has been very consistent in showing an area of warm anomalies in the Northeast. However, the CFSv2 is just nearing its skillful range.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.5°.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

lots of cold fronts in april and early may went down to the gulf coast cooling the gulf..

Thank you, that is informative. Do we know whether the surface actually got cooled or was the surface warmth just mushed in with the colder water deeper down?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   1 member