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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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12 hours ago, doncat said:

This date in 1996...99° Station record for May!

yes it was the high for the entire year lol- three 90 degree days that entire year and two of them were in May and one day at the end of August when it barely hit 90.

 

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20 hours ago, KEITH L.I said:

I was 8 years old..it was very hot especially late June and early July. It hit 100 three times..snowy and cold the following winter with a snowstorm Christmas eve..a warm January and snow and cold all Feb and March

wow quite the legendary period!

JFK hit 104, EWR hit 105 and LGA hit 107!  Looks like NYC was the coolest at 103 at the peak of the heat :P

How did NYC ever hit 106 in July 1936 during the peak of the dust bowl?  I wonder how hot JFK, LGA and EWR would have been on that day had they existed?  Maybe one or more of them would have been hotter than EWR's July 2011 record of 108?

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yes it was the high for the entire year lol- three 90 degree days that entire year and two of them were in May and one day at the end of August when it barely hit 90.

 

Had twelve 90°+ days here with three of them in May so yeah a relatively cool summer.

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3 minutes ago, doncat said:

Had twelve 90°+ days here with three of them in May so yeah a relatively cool summer.

but extremely humid....one particularly humid day sticks out to me, it was overcast and 80 degrees with 100% humidity.....ugh..... give me 2010 dry heat over that any day, month or year lol.

 

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This cool pattern since early April really dropped the SST departures to our east. Unusual to see them colder than normal for a change.

54AFECB4-4437-4DF7-B272-8232890BD55F.thumb.png.6edeb0e8d801d43f4d7f9f95fcb27d8c.png
6A17CC7B-2E5F-489F-BE9F-F7F6FDE5AC30.png.0a194e38834915eb6a79400ad496e166.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Chilly outside....feels like early April  

Gonna be cold for May tonight,. Mid 40s around the city, by this point in May that's around record territory. LGA record low is 45 in 2002.  The rest may be just slightly out of reach, like JFK 43,  EWR 42. All set in 2002. Was a particularly cold day that year, all sites are set in 2002 except for the Park.

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Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case into the closing days of May. Conditions will also remain generally dry.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was -6.57 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.344.

On May 19, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.332 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.695.

Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer. Moreover, just as the warm pattern that set in during late December and then the cool pattern that set in after the first week of April was prolonged, the warmth could be prolonged once it develops. At the same time, the latest EPS weeklies show the potential for a continuation of the cool pattern well into June.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3°.

 

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7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Readings continue to remain below normal and that should be the case into the closing days of May. Conditions will also remain generally dry.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was -6.57 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.344.

On May 19, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.332 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.695.

Since 1950, there were two cases where the April AO averaged +0.500 or above while the May AO averaged -0.500 or below: 1952 and 1954. Both cases featured a warmer than normal June. The flip to a warm June was particularly notable in 1954. Such an outcome suggests that the prevailing pattern could change toward one that would favor a warm June and perhaps warm summer. Moreover, just as the warm pattern that set in during late December and then the cool pattern that set in after the first week of April was prolonged, the warmth could be prolonged once it develops. At the same time, the latest EPS weeklies show the potential for a continuation of the cool pattern well into June.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3°.

 

What was Central Park high temp?

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5 hours ago, Cfa said:

I’m far enough north to be warmer than the south shore and miss the sea breeze on most occasions but far enough south to be droughty for extended periods during the summer. @psv88 is only a few miles WNW of me and gets more rain, sometimes inches more. Our temps on the other hand are typically within a degree or so of each other’s.

The LIE is probably a better demarcator for precipitation than it is for temperatures.

First few summers I moved here I missed most of the storms, last 2 years have been non stop storms, several severe. 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This cool pattern since early April really dropped the SST departures to our east. Unusual to see them colder than normal for a change.

54AFECB4-4437-4DF7-B272-8232890BD55F.thumb.png.6edeb0e8d801d43f4d7f9f95fcb27d8c.png
6A17CC7B-2E5F-489F-BE9F-F7F6FDE5AC30.png.0a194e38834915eb6a79400ad496e166.png

 

 

that pattern is associated with active hurricane seasons

Image

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

that pattern is associated with active hurricane seasons

Image

Maybe this will be the year that we'll be directly impacted by a true tropical system.

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3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

39 here at 3AM.  Upton is down to 31.  I had to look.

 

 

...36.5* here..good thing i covered the veggies last nite..car windshields have some frost on them.

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The next 8 days are averaging 64degs., or 1.5degs. BN.

Month to date is  -3.6[57.2].        Should be about  -3.0[59.2] by the 29th.

The last 11 days of May are averaging 63(GFS ENS) and 68(GFS OP), which average out sbout Normal.   If so, May would end at -2.3[60.1].

50* here at 6am.         55* by 9am.         56* at 10;30am.        back to 55* at Noon.         64* around 6pm.          56* by 9pm.

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Queue Albert Hammond - It never rains in southern California

San Diego or is it Laguna Beach style weather continues.  Onshore flow and temps in the upper 60s with no rain. ULL passes through Fri PM and Saturday with some unsettled showers and storms possible.  Otherwise more of the same Sunday and Memorial Day perhaps a tinge warmer.  The delayed warmth should get to most of the area on/around 5/28 with a warmer last weekend of the month shaping up on guidance.  First shot of 90s, watch those 80s get higher / enhacned by recent dryness 5/28 - 5/30. 

 

Beyond there,  longer range ECM would rebuild the ridge in the east in a more favorable location for a SW / W flow to bring some heat in early June while the GFS with cutoff city - time will tell. Will this be the 2008 style early June strong heat surge?

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You can see how Friday and most of Saturday could be cloudy as this  cut off moves moves through

 

latest.jpg

 

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The euro is pretty wet for Friday into Saturday.  We actually need the rain so hopefully it happens 

B8F6C457-EB9A-497F-B0AE-E8FDAFB0F83B.png

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25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Heat is back on as we are days away from Memorial Day lol

Down to 37 here last night.  More heat than AC through the first 3 weeks of the month - not even close.

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Warmer that I would have thought

 

Location NWS ID Description Water Temperature Latitude Longitude
Absecon ASCN4 Absecon COOP 55 39.4231 -74.5000
Absecon ABSN4 Absecon Ck. at Absecon 62 39.4303 -74.5206
Allenwood ALLN4 Manasquan R. nr. Allenwood 57 40.1467 -74.1222
Atlantic City ATLN4 Atlantic City 58 39.3781 -74.4228
Barnegat Light BGLN4 Barnegat Light 54 39.7631 -74.1106
Belmar BLMN4 Belmar ALERTS 56 40.1800 -74.0400
Belvidere BVDN4 Belvidere-Del Rvr 59 40.8264 -75.0825
Bivalve BVVN4 Bivalve ALERTS 58 39.2300 -75.0400
Canoe Brook DCP CHMN4 Canoe Brook DCP 60 40.7400 -74.3500
Cape May Harbor CAPN4 Cape May Harbor ALERT 55 38.9500 -74.8200
Cherry Hill CHRN4 S. Br. Pennsauken Cr. 57 39.9417 -75.0011
Extonville EXTN4 Crosswicks Cr. at Extonville 59 40.1372 -74.6000
Flatbrookville FLAN4 Flat Brook near Flatbrookville 58 41.1061 -74.9525
Frenchtown FREN4 Delaware River at Frenchtown 61 40.5261 -75.0650
Griggstown GTNN4 Millstone R. at Griggstown 64 40.4400 -74.6175
Haddonfield HDDN4 Haddonfield 59 39.9031 -75.0214
Keansburg KSBN4 Keansburg - Raritan Bay 56 40.4444 -74.1478
Kenilworth KENN4 Rahway River near Kenilworth 58 40.6731 -74.3133
Manasquan MSNN4 Watson C. at Manasquan 56 40.1117 -74.0442
Manville MNVN4 Manville 62 40.5556 -74.5828
Maplewood USGS MPLN4 E. Branch Rahway River 55 40.7350 -74.2706
Margate City MGTN4 Margate City Coop. 55 39.3300 -74.5000
Medford MEDN4 SW Br. Rancocas Ck. at Medford 62 39.8953 -74.8236
Millburn EBRN4 E. Branch Rahway River 56 40.7242 -74.3058
Millburn WBRN4 W. Branch Rahway River 60 40.7308 -74.3072
Mount Holly - Iron Work Park IWPN4 N. Br. Rancocas Cr. 60 39.9931 -74.7814
Newark DCP NWKN4 Passaic River - Newark (Tidal) 56 40.7131 -74.1231
New Lisbon NLBN4 New Lisbon-Greenwood Branch 55 39.9561 -74.6278
New Lisbon NLBN4 New Lisbon-Greenwood Branch 58 39.9561 -74.6278
Oak Ridge USGS ORGN4 Pequannock R. at Oak Ridge 59 41.0397 -74.5017
Pemberton PEBN4 Pemberton 61 39.9700 -74.6844
Pequest PQTN4 Pequest River at Pequest 54 40.8306 -74.9786
Pompton POMN4 Ramapo R-Dawes Hwy 66 40.9856 -74.2794
Pompton Lakes PPTN4 Pompton Lakes 65 40.9919 -74.2800
Pompton Lakes Above PLUN4 Pompton Lakes lake elevation 65 40.9925 -74.2789
Pompton Lakes-Lakeside Ave PMPN4 Ramapo R at Lakeside Ave. 64 41.0072 -74.2744
Port Mercer(Del/Rtn canal) DRCN4 Delaware and Raritan Canal 63 40.3044 -74.6853
Rahway RBRN4 Rahway - Robsinsons Branch 56 40.6056 -74.2992
Riegelsville RGLN4 Delaware R. at Riegelsville 62 40.5947 -75.1897
Sea Bright SBIN4 Sea Bright ALERTS 54 40.3700 -73.9800
Sea Isle City SICN4 Sea Isle City-Ludlam Thorofare 54 39.1578 -74.6981
Singac SIGN4   64 40.8944 -74.2661
South Dennis SDNN4 South Dennis ALERTS 55 39.1600 -74.8300
Spruce Run Res. USGS SRRN4 Spruce Run Reservoir HP-TW 58 40.6436 -74.9236
Stafford Forge STFN4 Westecunk Cr at Stafford Forge 59 39.6667 -74.3203
Stone Harbor SHBN4 Stone Harbor ALERTS 55 39.0600 -74.7700
Swedesboro SWBN4 Swedesboro - Baccoon Creek 57 39.7411 -75.2592
Trenton TTWN4 Trenton-Del R 62 40.2217 -74.7783
Tuckerton TKTN4 Tuckerton ALERT 53 39.5000 -74.3250
Tuckerton TIDE JCTN4 Jacques Cousteau Reserve Tide 55 39.5081 -74.3383
Vincentown VNCN4 Vincentown - S.Br.Rancocas Cr. 59 39.9394 -74.7639
Waretown WATN4 Waretown ALERTS 58 39.7900 -74.1800
Washington Xing DCP WASN4 Washington Crossing 62 40.2950 -74.8681
Whitesbog 4S MCDN4 McDonalds Br. in Lebanon SF 53 39.8850 -74.5053

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May 2020 had temps in the 30's for the first time since 1978 in NYC...its just as hard to get temps into the 40's in June...the last time that happened was in 2000 when the lowest min was 49...The first week in June 1945 had temps in the 40's almost every morning...it was the worst start to June on record if you wanted heat...after mid month in 1945 it got hot and record heat ended the month...

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