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Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Model trends the past couple days now have been the Caribbean storm going straight into Honduras/Nicaragua, similar to a Mitch track, which made landfall in Honduras 22 years ago tomorrow.

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Most recent outlook from the NHC...

A large area of disturbed weather moving from the tropical Atlantic 
across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
associated with a pair of tropical waves.  Upper-level winds are 
expected to become more conducive for development of this 
disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical 
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the 
system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

two_atl_5d0 (5).png

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ECMWF, CMC GFS are in good agreement on a TS south of Jamaica at 72hrs.  It drifts southwest into central America on all models but takes varying amounts of time.

It doesn't have time to deepen into a major Hurricane on any model however.  

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Every six hours various models dance different scenarios around with future development in the Caribbean and GOM. This being 2020, and enduring yet another hot muggy day on October 29 here in Florida, I tend to think we may not be done for the year.

We still have healthy green leaves and fresh blooms on our Frangipani in our backyard that never has leaves past mid-September!

Strange year.

 

 

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New invest does have some disorganized but building convection along the wave axis. It's not much for now but this does seem to have potential over the weekend in the central Caribbean. It's moving slow enough that strong enough consolidated convection could fold or close off a surface vortex.
655adf3732f39eabc91440c2fa539c5f.gif

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[mention=845]Windspeed[/mention] Tri-Cities, TN/VA

Any Zeta effects up there? Was in Blacksburg just a week ago and had dinner with my Uncle and Aunt who live in Kingsport.

Streams are up but nothing too major. Upper NE TN/SW VA faired pretty well. All the high wind remained east of the Blue Ridge or ridges and peaks above 3600 ft. Generally the stronger stuff clipped Chattanooga but shot east through the Carolinas to SE VA. As for rain, here's a clip of the West Prong of the Little Pigeon from Gatlinburg, TN.

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17 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Streams are up but nothing too major. Upper NE TN/SW VA faired pretty well. All the high wind remained east of the Blue Ridge or ridges and peaks above 3600 ft. Generally the stronger stuff clipped Chattanooga but shot east through the Carolinas to SE VA. As for rain, here's a clip of the West Prong of the Little Pigeon from Gatlinburg, TN.

 

That is crazy for this time of year! In the Spring with a warm wet storm and a major snow melt, creeks and rivers often flood in them mountains. Then it's time to white water raft if not too dangerous (New River in WV comes to mind). LOL

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Hmmm, freezing rain and snow in Texas, a Hurricane hits New Orleans, Biloxi, and Gulfport (MS) and pounds the southeast US into Virginia, miserable hot and muggy in Florida.

Can't wait to see what is next for 2020. Maybe we'll see snow in Florida a day or two after we get hit by the next TS?

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4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z GFS ...another Gulf Hurricane out in fantasyland time.   What do we do when we run out of the Greek alphabet?

Upper case:

Hurricane !

Hurricane @

Hurricane #

So on...

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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z GFS ...another Gulf Hurricane out in fantasyland time.   What do we do when we run out of the Greek alphabet?

Next year I will keep a journal of every time Tampa Bay was in a future model. I lost count this year very long ago. I have even lost count in the past week.

image.thumb.png.bf1cbe6cca1c31b092aa990821ea721c.png

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This persistent flare-up of deep convection has a clear linear band on the east side of the wave axis. That boundary is southerly. That needs to be closely watched as it would not take much for convergence to develop a low-level vortex. This is clearly going to close off a mid-level vortex within the tiny MCS even if temporary. TCG could happen way before initially expected which would open up a plethora of forecasting possibilities. This would immediately become a long-tracking TC through a favorable Caribbean with very high OHC.

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3 hours ago, Prospero said:

miserable hot and muggy in Florida.

No kidding. The heat is relentless this year. Next week looks to break the humidity which will be nice for me to go running outside.

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What are we going to see after post-season reanalysis?

I could see at least 3 of these realistically happening

Hanna upgrade to Cat 2

Marco downgraded to TS

Nana downgraded to TS

Paulette upgraded to Cat 3

Sally upgraded to Cat 3

Gamma upgraded to Cat 1

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So with 3 Atlantic majors in October-November for the first time in recorded history, and with more activity likely in the weeks ahead, does anyone still think this season is a "bust?"

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1 minute ago, cheese007 said:

So with 3 Atlantic majors in October-November for the first time in recorded history, and with more activity likely in the weeks ahead, does anyone still think this season is a "bust?"

Nope. These Greek cyclones have been a whole 'nother season in and of themselves (apart from Laura, Sally and Teddy).

Trend of heavily west-loaded/close-to-land intensification holds with Eta, but it's finally producing the kind of jaw-dropping satellite porn I expected out of this season...in Sept./early Oct. Kinda annoying that the WPAC snuck in Goni first, though.

In the end, forecasts of extreme activity in the Atlantic were spot-on, even though it didn't play out in quite the fashion most observers, experts and amateurs alike, anticipated.
 

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1 hour ago, cheese007 said:

So with 3 Atlantic majors in October-November for the first time in recorded history, and with more activity likely in the weeks ahead, does anyone still think this season is a "bust?"

Even though it's no 2005 or even 1933, this year is easily a top 5 season. Only those years and maybe 1995 edge 2020 out, and with Epsilon, Zeta, and now Eta, is ahead of 2017 for me personally. It could probably pass 1995 depending on how the next 10-15 days play out

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26 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Even though it's no 2005 or even 1933, this year is easily a top 5 season. Only those years and maybe 1995 edge 2020 out, and with Epsilon, Zeta, and now Eta, is ahead of 2017 for me personally. It could probably pass 1995 depending on how the next 10-15 days play out

Well sheesh I mean...what would it have to be to be akin to 2005 then? Lol

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well sheesh I mean...what would it have to be to be akin to 2005 then? Lol

Multiple Cat 5s, multiple sub 900 hurricanes, lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane on record, a cat 5 and high end cat 4 in july, and 4 landfalling majors in the US are the main reasons 2005 still reigns at the top in my mind

 

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Quite a hurricane season, and I'd still watch the Western Caribbean the rest of this month for sure.

Thus far, we've had 28 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. However, there is a high likelihood that Gamma was a hurricane at it's Yucatan landfall, and I wonder if Sally or Zeta reached Category 3 status. If all of that takes place posthumously, we could have 28/13/7. 

I think (similar to 2005 actually) we had a surprisingly lack of long-tracked Cape Verde activity. Laura began from a wave, but it developed later. Teddy was the only true long-tracked Cape Verde hurricane, although Paulette technically counts. I guess I just grew up in the 90s during the days of true long-trackers like Hurricane Georges. 

It looks like if nothing else hits the United States, we had six hurricane landfalls. Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta. Remember though, at one point, Cristobal, Marco, and Beta were all expected to be hurricanes at landfall....so we could've had NINE hurricanes. I think the fact that five of the six were technically Category 1 or 2 does play a role, especially after 2017 had two Category 4 landfalls, and 2018 had a Category 5. Nevertheless, all five storms packed a punch and one was a rare near-Cat 5 Gulf Coast landfall. (Another thing I remember growing up was how much storms usually weakened on approach to the Gulf Coast in the 1990s/2000s).

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Heh... MJO phases in late Nov.- early Dec. looking highly supportive for a interesting close and even prolonged potential Caribbean activity.

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So... 2 more upcoming?  One in the Eastern Caribbean and another out in the NE Atlantic toward the Azores?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Eta, located near Florida Bay.

Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system 
located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is showing 
some signs of organization.  This system will likely gradually 
acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week, and a 
tropical or subtropical storm could develop within a few days while 
this system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the 
northeastern Atlantic Ocean. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medum...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, 
where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression could form late this 
week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&& 

Additional information on the central Atlanic low pressure area can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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