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Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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21 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:
B+ is about right but this is like when the valedictorian just mails it in. If it were the dumb kid studying hard we could root for it. But here we shame. 

What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory?

Probably the only thing that actually would do it across the board would be a CONUS cat 5 landfall in a mid-sized city or bigger.  Or maybe a cat 3-4 with an Irma-like track that affects the entire Florida peninsula. 

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For me, two more majors, regardless of land interaction. The lack of them this season is really the only thing blowing it out the roof. I get they mean squat if nobody is affected. However, climatologically-speaking, any majors from this point forward would likely be Caribbean-based storms and virtually guaranteed to hit land.

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:
2 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said:
B+ is about right but this is like when the valedictorian just mails it in. If it were the dumb kid studying hard we could root for it. But here we shame. 

What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory?

A Mitch/Wilma level event in the Western Caribbean

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2 hours ago, AnthonyEC said:

Wilma into Tampa Bay would more than be an A. 

A Wilma that wind shear takes down to a TS a few hours before landfall works for me. We've dodged a few this year, and have barely done any prep, but could handle the thrill (and fear) as long as we don't lose power or any more trees. Irma took all of our morning to noon shade Oaks and our electric bill went way up keeping out house cool in the summer since.

I'd even be open to a decent 6-8 ft storm surge and our humble town of Gulfport, Florida would recover and everyone would pitch in to help out the businesses downtown. (They may not agree so much though...) I suppose a 6-8 ft storm surge here might be closer to 12 ft or more in downtown Tampa where the Tampa Bay might be pushed up, so that would not be good news for Tampa.

I'd rather no more storms for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or the Florida panhandle this year. They got their share already.

Of course I'd rather a weak storm hit here on the weekend when I am not working as much so I can enjoy it more.

So far I give the season an A-. It started early, kept busy, a lot of hours watching and reading here and there, and I really haven't been bored til now. But with the absolutely gorgeous weather the past couple days here on the central west coast of Florida, no complaints at all.

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3 hours ago, Prospero said:

A Wilma that wind shear takes down to a TS a few hours before landfall works for me. We've dodged a few this year, and have barely done any prep, but could handle the thrill (and fear) as long as we don't lose power or any more trees. Irma took all of our morning to noon shade Oaks and our electric bill went way up keeping out house cool in the summer since.

I'd even be open to a decent 6-8 ft storm surge and our humble town of Gulfport, Florida would recover and everyone would pitch in to help out the businesses downtown. (They may not agree so much though...) I suppose a 6-8 ft storm surge here might be closer to 12 ft or more in downtown Tampa where the Tampa Bay might be pushed up, so that would not be good news for Tampa.

I'd rather no more storms for Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or the Florida panhandle this year. They got their share already.

Of course I'd rather a weak storm hit here on the weekend when I am not working as much so I can enjoy it more.

So far I give the season an A-. It started early, kept busy, a lot of hours watching and reading here and there, and I really haven't been bored til now. But with the absolutely gorgeous weather the past couple days here on the central west coast of Florida, no complaints at all.

It really has been an odd but solid year for tracking. I hate so many were impacted though. We will see how October materializes and whether the FL peninsula can keep the force field going. It's the only place that hasn't really been impacted. Isaias had warnings but very minimal impact to FL. 

20200923_222113.jpg

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9 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

It really has been an odd but solid year for tracking. I hate so many were impacted though. We will see how October materializes and whether the FL peninsula can keep the force field going. It's the only place that hasn't really been impacted. Isaias had warnings but very minimal impact to FL. 

 

Our worst weather of the season in SE Florida was probably when tropical depression "Sally" moved through which gave steady squalls all day.  Didn't get much more than a breeze during Isaias.

On another note, Euro is showing an African wave developing in about 9 days and staying well south under a huge Bermuda high...

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I don't think this season shuts down in October the way that 2004 and 2017 did. I think we likely still see one or two major hurricanes.

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1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

I don't think this season shuts down in October the way that 2004 and 2017 did. I think we likely still see one or two major hurricanes.

Watching here in Gulfport Florida. We never get too relaxed this time of year. Granted, it is quiet now and absolutely gorgeous as far as weather. But as the Grateful Dead say, "When life looks like Easy Street, there is danger at your door".

Even so, it does feel like things are over here for us. Kind of hoping, we were very lucky so far for 2020. It has been interesting season (ok maybe trolling Ghost of Leroy), and we felt several storms with gusts in the TS range, a lot of rain at times, mild surges, etc., but all in all very easy season for the central west coast of Florida. We were in five day cones, so we did have moments of excitement. LOL

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12 hours ago, Prospero said:

Watching here in Gulfport Florida. We never get too relaxed this time of year. Granted, it is quiet now and absolutely gorgeous as far as weather. But as the Grateful Dead say, "When life looks like Easy Street, there is danger at your door".

Even so, it does feel like things are over here for us. Kind of hoping, we were very lucky so far for 2020. It has been interesting season (ok maybe trolling Ghost of Leroy), and we felt several storms with gusts in the TS range, a lot of rain at times, mild surges, etc., but all in all very easy season for the central west coast of Florida. We were in five day cones, so we did have moments of excitement. LOL

Same here on the east coast of Florida (Palm Beach County). We were in the cones of Isaias and Laura and actually got a hurricane warning from Isaias, but our worst impacts were from when tropical depression pre-Sally moved through. 

I have a feeling Florida's force field may come down in the next couple weeks...

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Both the GFS op and the parallel are now picking up on TCG in the deep Caribbean to Western Caribbean in the mid-to-long range. The ECMWF shows zilch. However its ensembles are now showing possible development in the WCARIB as well, all roughly within a 100 hr variance. The para is faster than the operational with development and potential TCG.d28095e01e72697c3834f2889143d8c8.jpg&key=9048faa0cad50bd0d188aeff3035cc71b4878fb36f79361f741f03845e275c6ec00d755b45e5138af30989671c3931cb.jpg&key=69182f45e6a1ddb503cd4d4fbe0151aaec8e85b975fdcad982f64e2f464b3d0bcab9343ec1a0260f3ceea99c31ef5df6.jpg&key=07383953c6dc5aa2b388b1fb9ce1dd9bf34929925d51905cdf84e5695cabc99a

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If I had a dollar for every time a model showed a storm passing by or over Tampa Bay this season, well...

I suppose I could buy a large extra crispy mushroom pineapple pizza and a 12 pack of Amber Bock.

image.thumb.png.f4e337e87af1c8a02c97cbe78ef2bc9e.png

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Models are not showing it hitting SE Florida 5-10 days out.  I guess that means SE Florida is getting a landfall.

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06z GFS-Para shows back to back storms out of the Caribbean, first one looks like to make landfall around Tampa then stalls and fizzles, then a couple days later the next storm plows through south Florida at 942 mb...

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Here comes the first wave that has model support. The GFS15 vs 16(para) have varying solutions. The first wave near the Lesser Antilles is much more vigorously modeled by the GFS to become the intense hurricane. The para wants to throw down the gauntlet on the second wave currently out over the MDR. At any rate, chances are we'll have some sort of W. Caribbean action by next weekend. The ECMWF ensembles are increasing support as well for something developing. We're getting closer to the mid range.

 

 

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SSTs are obviously not going to be an issue in the NW Caribbean. There will be some cold fronts that will cool the N. GOM but the SE GOM should remain quite warm for anything that would/could potentially hook into Southwesterly flow and head across the Florida Peninsula.

Bigger influences will be stacked vs sheared flow, land influences (Yucatan, Cuba) and how intense a hypothetical TC would become prior to entry into the SE GOM.e966fcb0603e3aac809e5f9b9b1649b0.jpg

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Just now, Floydbuster said:

When's the last real decent October Western Caribbean major? 

Depends what you consider western

Sandy and Mathew made it to eastern Cuba

Otto November 2016 hit Panama

Rina 2011 was near the Yucatan. and in October.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

When's the last real decent October Western Caribbean major? 

Michael? Didn't peak in the Caribbean but still an October Caribbean hurricane that became a major. 

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 GFS has a 971mb Cat2 making landfall just north of BE in MX. 

 

Still an ongoing trend north with the track every run.

 

I think it may eventually end up taking a Charlie like track across Cuba into SW FL.

 

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6 minutes ago, Amped said:

I think it may eventually end up taking a Charlie like track across Cuba into SW FL.

Oh yea, Charlie, it had us in the cross-hairs in Tampa Bay up to a few hours before landfall. So many people evacuated with a historic traffic jam on the bridges to go to Orlando for safety. Charlie did a surprise hard right at Port Charlotte and mostly missed Tampa Bay. But my friends who went to Orlando had stories of trees falling down in hotel parking lots, power being out, so on.

One person came home to a waterfront home on the intercoastal waterway here and their old dried out Christmas tree from the year before was still sitting on their boat dock.

I was in Sun City Center in southeast Hillsborough County watching shutters and roof tiles fly down the road. I watched for a couple hours, still daylight which seems to be a real treat for us storm geeks.

They have very few trees in that senior community, but driving around the next morning did see a lot of trees down on the main highways and streets. There was a mile long swath on I-75 just north of the Port Charlotte exit where it was obvious the eye wall came through. Wow, it was a Cat 5 if I remember right. Looked more like a wide tornado path came by. Trees snapped off like match sticks.

Francis and Jeanne were both stronger in this area the same year very soon after. What a year.

 

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1. A broad area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean 
Sea in a few days.  Some slow development is possible late this week 
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the 
northwestern Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

two_atl_5d0.png

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GFS now showing  nothing. Looks  like we  have  indeed ended the season very  early. ACE per storm not at all impressive this season.

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