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COVID-19 Talk

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Just now, Yeoman said:

 

You sure your name isn't Debbie?

Nah. I've just read way too many scientific reports regarding data findings from back in grad school.

It's also kind of funny watching papers get posted to the public pre-review right now. And wild how quickly some are actually getting through review! God I wish my reviews went a tenth as fast back when I was in school.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

What are you arguing here? Social distancing doesn’t work?

I am arguing that social distancing prolongs the time in which the disease is in the population.  That it needs to reach around 80% infection rates in order for it to extinguish itself.  

That flattening the curve will never change the number of people that contract the disease... the area under the steep curve is the same as the area under the flatten curve.  

And the longer it is around the higher the chance that it will impact the elderly population.  We should be letting our children to spread the disease around while not letting the elderly leave their home. 

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Just now, 40westwx said:

I am arguing that social distancing prolongs the time in which the disease is in the population.  That it needs to reach around 80% infection rates in order for it to extinguish itself.  

That flattening the curve will never change the number of people that contract the disease... the area under the steep curve is the same as the area under the flatten curve.  

And the longer it is around the higher the chance that it will impact the elderly population.  We should be letting our children to spread the disease around while not letting the elderly leave their home. 

Because kids do'n't live with old people.

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Just now, 40westwx said:

I am arguing that social distancing prolongs the time in which the disease is in the population.  That it needs to reach around 80% infection rates in order for it to extinguish itself.  

That flattening the curve will never change the number of people that contract the disease... the area under the steep curve is the same as the area under the flatten curve.  

And the longer it is around the higher the chance that it will impact the elderly population.  We should be letting our children to spread the disease around while not letting the elderly leave their home. 

That last bit goes directly against public health guidelines and is bad to promote. It's anti-vaxxer level stuff.

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The point of flattening the curve is not to limit long term infections. It’s to prevent catastrophic collapse of the hospital and health system. Which would kill many people who otherwise wouldn’t die if infections are spread out.

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1 minute ago, 40westwx said:

I am arguing that social distancing prolongs the time in which the disease is in the population.  That it needs to reach around 80% infection rates in order for it to extinguish itself.  

That flattening the curve will never change the number of people that contract the disease... the area under the steep curve is the same as the area under the flatten curve.  

And the longer it is around the higher the chance that it will impact the elderly population.  We should be letting our children to spread the disease around while not letting the elderly leave their home. 

None of this makes any sense.  The idea is to limit the number of deaths until treatments improve and/or there is a vaccine.  Letting 80% of the population get this would probably result in a million+ deaths in short order.  

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7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Why did i just click, "show this post"?

You just perfectly demonstrated the problem with acceptable risk.  You risked reading it and now are permanently damaged.

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Sweden is doing the herd mentality thing. Population 10 million 13,000 confirmed cases 1,400 deaths so a 10% death rate so far. US population roughly 330 million I'll let you do the math if we went herd. I'm just as ready as anyone to get back at it but I'm not sure this would have been the right way. I apologize in C.A.P.E already posted lol

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Sweden is doing the herd mentality thing. Population 10 million 13,000 confirmed cases 1,400 deaths so a 10% death rate so far. US population roughly 330 million I'll let you do the math if we went herd. I'm just as ready as anyone to get back at it but I'm not sure this would have been the right way. I apologize in C.A.P.E already posted lol

Countdown til @PhineasC blows a gasket over this post 5.....4.....3.....2.....1.....

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10 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

And the longer it is around the higher the chance that it will impact the elderly population.  We should be letting our children to spread the disease around while not letting the elderly leave their home. 

I think this option was studied too.  The problem is how exactly do you segregate the over-65 crowd from the rest of the population?  15% of our population is over 65.  Many of them live with their children.  How exactly do you lock down the elderly?  Do business have "elderly-only" business hours and "under-65-only" business hours so that both cohorts don't intermingle?  Are there separate grocery stores for the elderly and the under-65 crowd so that both populations don't intermingle?  The elderly are lonely as it is - locking them down for 18 months until we either get either a vaccine or herd immunity seems tortuous.  From a policy perspective, it seems infeasible to implement something like this, so they went with general restrictions for now.

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4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Countdown til @PhineasC blows a gasket over this post 5.....4.....3.....2.....1.....

I've always gotten along with Phin we have the same perspective on many things...not all but many. He can handle it and if not he'll be ok eventually 

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4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I wasn't referring to you.  You entertain me. 

Okay good.. so I just heard a new Fauci commercial.. and it is indicative of a policy change.  He is telling people "if you think you have Corona Virus, dont go to the ER, dont call 911, call a Doctor and tell them what is going"  

This actually makes a lot of sense.  I think that one of the big concerns with the medical system being over stressed is that a lot of people are dumb.. and they will show up to the ER for a cold.. 

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8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Sweden is doing the herd mentality thing. Population 10 million 13,000 confirmed cases 1,400 deaths so a 10% death rate so far. US population roughly 330 million I'll let you do the math if we went herd. I'm just as ready as anyone to get back at it but I'm not sure this would have been the right way. I apologize in C.A.P.E already posted lol

So you're saying that the population size doesn't make their method as easily applicable here? (was asking about this earlier since I've been seeing some citing them as an argument for us not needing to have shutdown)

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So you're saying that the population size doesn't make their method as easily applicable here? (was asking about this earlier since I've been seeing some citing them as an argument for us not needing to have shutdown)

I'm saying on a pure math basis the deaths would be way too many to do it this way here

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3 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Okay good.. so I just heard a new Fauci commercial.. and it is indicative of a policy change.  He is telling people "if you think you have Corona Virus, dont go to the ER, dont call 911, call a Doctor and tell them what is going"  

This actually makes a lot of sense.  I think that one of the big concerns with the medical system being over stressed is that a lot of people are dumb.. and they will show up to the ER for a cold.. 

That actually has been the guidance for quite a while.

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm saying on a pure math basis the deaths would be way too many to do it this way here

I think if the American people were okay with letting two million people die with the herd immunity approach, that would be our policy.  But 85% of our country want to proritize lives over the economy.  Hence that's our policy.  

Even with the herd immunity approach, our economy is screwed anyway.  The entire world is shut down.  And you'll have severe supply shocks due to people getting sick, and severe demand shocks because of fear (people don't want to travel, eat out, go to concerts, etc).  So either way, the "deaths of despair" due to a poor economy will occur regardless.

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

In one breath you’re saying we don’t know enough to make actionable decisions and in the other we also know enough to open everything up and let nature take its course. 

Yea I tapped out of this mess last night.  But good luck going down his rabbit holes. 

3 hours ago, SnowGolfBro said:

No one is keeping you here.  I happen to love our country.  And i think we are the greatest country on Earth and it is not even close.  

1st Amendment dude...love it or leave it. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I tapped out of this mess last night.  But good luck going down his rabbit holes. 

1st Amendment dude...love it or leave it. 

its in jeopardy. We are slipping

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm looking for digital snow maps. Is this the right place? ;)

nope. 

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm looking for digital snow maps. Is this the right place? ;)

No need for those...the real thing is 2 hours drive north lol.

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Just now, supernovasky said:

That seemed obvious. Did he say anything about daycares?

yeah not sure why there are just extending instead of just saying they won't go back this year. ugh

and no, haven't heard anything yet.

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