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George BM

March Banter 2020

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Really don't like giving advice when it comes to other people's money especially when it comes to the Stock market (God knows I have been wrong on occasion). But you might want to reconsider dumping most if not all into the C Fund at this time (maybe 50% into the C if you really want to gamble). Been playing the dips for quite awhile now and have done markedly well over the the normal returns on the S&P. What we are seeing now isn't a typical dip. I think the market stands to lose at least another 10-15% and those are probably optimistic as it wouldn't surprise me if  we may be looking at a 45-50% drop when all is said and done. As we are seeing the country is starting to shut down and this will most likely pick up in the next week or so. This alone would hammer the Stock Market but we are also seeing an oil war in progress which doesn't look to end soon which also would typically drag the market down. Pretty bad combo (There are also a couple of other things I have been keeping an eye on (Global tensions, aggressions, over hyping/sensationalism by the media)) So though we will likely see temporary positive spikes here and there in the market with any good news the underlining issues still remain and probably will so for the next several weeks/month at least. 

I myself right now have our funds safely parked in the G Fund. And though the returns are minimal at least they are returning something and not taking huge chunks away. What I will be looking for is when the market starts stabilizing where we aren't seeing these massive swings. When we can get the swings within roughly a point consistently from day to day trading over a period of time is when I will start considering dumping back into the C fund. I might lose a couple of points on the rebound by waiting for some stability but with the market shedding 24+% at this time there is plenty to work with in that regard. *** The two transfer limit (3 transfers if the last is going back into the G) per month plays into my thinking as well but that gets a little convoluted.

Who's shorting? lol

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I have been sick as a dog. Dry cough, fever 101, sore throat, malaise, weakness, etc. For 8 days. I went to the doc yesterday who swabbed for strep and flu. Negative on both. Asked about covid, testing isn’t there unless you have a known contact or went out of the country. I do have a lot of contact in my job with international people.

 

Who knows. It’s been ugh though. Hope everyone is well and stays healthy through this.

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3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I have been sick as a dog. Dry cough, fever 101, sore throat, malaise, weakness, etc. For 8 days. I went to the doc yesterday who swabbed for strep and flu. Negative on both. Asked about covid, testing isn’t there unless you have a known contact or went out of the country. I do have a lot of contact in my job with international people.

 

Who knows. It’s been ugh though. Hope everyone is well and stays healthy through this.

I hope you feel better soon.  Are you self quarantined?

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3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I have been sick as a dog. Dry cough, fever 101, sore throat, malaise, weakness, etc. For 8 days. I went to the doc yesterday who swabbed for strep and flu. Negative on both. Asked about covid, testing isn’t there unless you have a known contact or went out of the country. I do have a lot of contact in my job with international people.

 

Who knows. It’s been ugh though. Hope everyone is well and stays healthy through this.

Uh...yeah, you should get tested for covid. There is community transmission in MD now.

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Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

I hope you feel better soon.  Are you self quarantined?

I am not but I’ve tried to have as little contact with the public as possible. I’m a deacon at my church and skipped last week and we are likely cancelling this week.

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17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I'm curious as to what you think the response should have been.

There was a swift travel restriction put in place that was heavily criticized by the press (as usual), but certainly slowed the initial spread of this virus.  You cant send a testing kit to everyone in the country when these kits didnt exist.  Our country is faring far better than most.

See answer below. It’s an egregious failure and national disgrace that we couldn’t get ahead of the most basic of elements to fight a pandemic—testing.

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

I have been sick as a dog. Dry cough, fever 101, sore throat, malaise, weakness, etc. For 8 days. I went to the doc yesterday who swabbed for strep and flu. Negative on both. Asked about covid, testing isn’t there unless you have a known contact or went out of the country. I do have a lot of contact in my job with international people.

 

Who knows. It’s been ugh though. Hope everyone is well and stays healthy through this.

Hopefully you can get tested soon. Have you called a hospital (if you need it)?

Either way, hang in there. 

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All four of us are going to be in re house together for at least 2 weeks. Send me booze please. @Scraff I might need your help urgently :wacko:

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Uh...yeah, you should get tested for covid. There is community transmission in MD now.

I don’t know what to say except that I was told I wouldn’t get tested.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

See answer below. It’s an egregious failure and national disgrace that we couldn’t get ahead of the most basic of elements to fight a pandemic—testing.

Hopefully you can get tested soon. Have you called a hospital (if you need it)?

Either way, hang in there. 

As bad as it’s been, it hasn’t been hospital bad. I actually think today I may be turning a corner thank god.

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11 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I have been sick as a dog. Dry cough, fever 101, sore throat, malaise, weakness, etc. For 8 days. I went to the doc yesterday who swabbed for strep and flu. Negative on both. Asked about covid, testing isn’t there unless you have a known contact or went out of the country. I do have a lot of contact in my job with international people.

 

Who knows. It’s been ugh though. Hope everyone is well and stays healthy through this.

There has been a massive failure here wrt to testing capability. Not suggesting everyone who has a cough or a sniffle should be tested, but there was a major eff up with the initial test kits, and other countries did not have that problem. Test availability is still very limited here by comparison. In the greatest nation on earth, it's not acceptable. I will leave it to others to ponder/debate the reason(s).

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

As bad as it’s been, it hasn’t been hospital bad. I actually think today I may be turning a corner thank god.

That’s good to hear. Get well soon.

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

See answer below. It’s an egregious failure and national disgrace that we couldn’t get ahead of the most basic of elements to fight a pandemic—testing.

 

THIS.

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Thank all of you for the kind words. I don’t wanna sound like a hypochondriac or something but the last several days have been stressful on top of the normal being sick stuff.

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15 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I'm curious as to what you think the response should have been.

There was a swift travel restriction put in place that was heavily criticized by the press (as usual), but certainly slowed the initial spread of this virus.  You cant send a testing kit to everyone in the country when these kits didnt exist.  Our country is faring far better than most.

I’m not an expert in any of this- not even close.   Ideally, the steps we’re taking this week would have been done weeks ago, but that could just be 20/20 hindsight.  You say our country is faring far better than most, but how do we know that is true when we have no sense of the scope of the spread?  We could just appear better off because we are simply a few weeks behind them with the progression.   I agree that the travel ban from China probably bought us a few weeks, but did we use them wisely?  

I do know there are a few things that could have been done better in my opinion (and I say this as someone who is pretty non-political), most of which have to do with mixed messaging: 

—Not saying in a speech to the nation that “prohibitions will apply to trade and cargo” when, in fact, that is not the case

—Not saying that the virus will “die with the hotter weather” when we don’t know that to be the case

—Not saying the number of US cases is “going very substantially down” to “close to zero,” which everyone knows is nonsense (even at the time)

—Not saying that everyone who wants a test can get a test, when that wasn’t true then and isn’t true now. 

I don’t want to start a political war on a weather message board.   It’s unfortunate this is happening in an election year because everything will be colored by that context.  Hopefully as a country we can move past the blame game (both sides) and deal with this challenge.  Stay well everyone.  

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9 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

As bad as it’s been, it hasn’t been hospital bad. I actually think today I may be turning a corner thank god.

Good to hear.  Honestly, you should just assume you have Corona and avoid contact with people as much as possible.  A test would be great from an information standpoint, but it’s not like it would change much.  There’s no special treatment or medication that you would get.  

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Good to hear.  Honestly, you should just assume you have Corona and avoid contact with people as much as possible.  A test would be great from an information standpoint, but it’s not like it would change much.  There’s no special treatment or medication that you would get.  

Thankfully my work can be done online. I haven’t completely isolated myself but for the most part I have. 

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Really don't like giving advice when it comes to other people's money especially when it comes to the Stock market (God knows I have been wrong on occasion). But you might want to reconsider dumping most if not all into the C Fund at this time (maybe 50% into the C if you really want to gamble). Been playing the dips for quite awhile now and have done markedly well over the the normal returns on the S&P. What we are seeing now isn't a typical dip. I think the market stands to lose at least another 10-15% and those are probably optimistic as it wouldn't surprise me if  we may be looking at a 45-50% drop when all is said and done. As we are seeing the country is starting to shut down and this will most likely pick up in the next week or so. This alone would hammer the Stock Market but we are also seeing an oil war in progress which doesn't look to end soon which also would typically drag the market down. Pretty bad combo (There are also a couple of other things I have been keeping an eye on (Global tensions, aggressions, over hyping/sensationalism by the media)) So though we will likely see temporary positive spikes here and there in the market with any good news the underlining issues still remain and probably will so for the next several weeks/month at least. 

I myself right now have our funds safely parked in the G Fund. And though the returns are minimal at least they are returning something and not taking huge chunks away. What I will be looking for is when the market starts stabilizing where we aren't seeing these massive swings. When we can get the swings within roughly a point consistently from day to day trading over a period of time is when I will start considering dumping back into the C fund. I might lose a couple of points on the rebound by waiting for some stability but with the market shedding 24+% at this time there is plenty to work with in that regard. *** The two transfer limit (3 transfers if the last is going back into the G) per month plays into my thinking as well but that gets a little convoluted.

The vast majority of my money is still in the G fund. I was talking about setting my contribution allocations going forward (which I've got set to nearly all C fund now)- I will be dollar cost averaging all the way down.

I don't think anyone knows where the bottom will be (I certainly don't) and attempting to time the market and "look for the bottom" are not going to work. I do know that the last few years have been ridiculously overvalued, which is why I sat it out. I've been waiting for this bear market. And to think, just a few months ago I was told the exact opposite- "You're still sitting in the G Fund? You're missing out on this historic bull market!" 

I'm totally fine with a 50% drop, the lower the better. I have a lot of time... unless you're going to argue we're Japan in the 1980's, in which case we're all screwed anyway so it doesn't matter.

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2 hours ago, jaydreb said:

I don’t want this to sound at all political, but around 60,000,000 people got the swine flu in the US alone.  I don’t think excellent leadership had much to do with it.  We were just fortunate that it was not as severe an illness as coronavirus and, as you say, vaccines provided some limited protections.  I think our government and society in general is a mess with these things, no matter who is in charge.  

Oh, I agree...and I wasn't trying to get overly political, sorry.  This country has done much better before with other crises for sure.  But it doesn't help to have mixed messages from the top (or at least near the top), people defying what experts are saying, or flat out stating things that aren't true.  That doesn't help anyone.  It is true that sometimes, we manage in spite of poor leadership, so maybe you're right in some ways that it might not matter so much who's in charge (up to a point!).  There's an element of "catch up" with anything...hell, just look at major weather events for one thing.  But we'd hope to refine that over the years.  As for the Swine Flu thing...from what I've heard that was more like an actual flu virus, so there was some more "familiarity" (for lack of a better word), and perhaps easier to gin up a vaccine.  I remember getting the vaccine at some point shortly after they came out with it.

I guess my main point (or one of them) in my other post is that I don't have much of a problem with these cancellations and postponements, advice to avoid big crowds, etc...even though on the surface it seems like "overkill" perhaps.  Better to be inconvenienced by that rather than have something worse happen.  Now, as I write this, I found out that Gov. Hogan just ordered all MD schools to close for two weeks starting this upcoming Monday.  My daughter is in MoCo, and this has been a possibility for a little while now...so not overly surprising.  I know many schools have been planning some online stuff, at least to mitigate some of the lost time.  A friend of mine in the Atlanta area just told me they closed Cobb County schools for the rest of the school year!  I'm sure many, many locations will be having summer classes to make up at least some time. 

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I’ve got a ton of time (about to turn 20!) but the stock market drops have been painful. Not that I called this in advance, but I thought about pulling out two weeks ago and was advised against it. Feel a little dumb. I’ve got chump change in compared to most of you, but my slush-fund-to-get-me-rich-by-30 is sad.

I’m prepared to buy the dip in 2-3 weeks.

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve got a ton of time (about to turn 20!) but the stock market drops have been painful. Not that I called this in advance, but I thought about pulling out two weeks ago and was advised against it. Feel a little dumb. I’ve got chump change in compared to most of you, but my slush-fund-to-get-me-rich-by-30 is sad.

I’m prepared to buy the dip in 2-3 weeks.

If you are 20 this will be a blip in the chart by the time you retire.  Stay the course and buy more if you can.  

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34 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Thankfully my work can be done online. I haven’t completely isolated myself but for the most part I have. 

Hey supernova...I hope you get better, and take good care of yourself OK!!  Stay safe...

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46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

All four of us are going to be in re house together for at least 2 weeks. Send me booze please. @Scraff I might need your help urgently :wacko:

Did you ring!? Corona can go to hell!!  If you need some “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter”, I’ll take care of you.

BD63C2D4-F089-4765-A631-CEB21141DD63.jpeg

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If you are 20 this will be a blip in the chart by the time you retire.  Stay the course and buy more if you can.  

yep. It’s just frustrating. But I definitely plan to buy, just not for probably another three weeks. I’m not optimistic.

When we get there, it’s a fire sale!!!!

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3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

If you are 20 this will be a blip in the chart by the time you retire.  Stay the course and buy more if you can.  

Pretty much...if you've got many years before retiring, you can withstand even some big market drops and swings.  I'm a fed. employee myself, actually put everything into one of their "L" funds which sort of "automatically" adjusts the investments as your projected retirement year approaches.  I'm not exactly the most knowledgeable on these things other than basic stuff, so I don't tinker much...and yeah, kinda lazy (I've heard some refer to the "L" fund as the "lazy fund", haha!).

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Did you ring!? Corona can go to hell!!  If you need some “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter”, I’ll take care of you.

BD63C2D4-F089-4765-A631-CEB21141DD63.jpeg

Oh man...you're like ready to be holed up for awhile with all that stuff!  Even the top shelf is bulging under the weight!  I'd be glad to help you lighten the load there...:lol:

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5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Did you ring!? Corona can go to hell!!  If you need some “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter”, I’ll take care of you.

BD63C2D4-F089-4765-A631-CEB21141DD63.jpeg

Nicely done!  

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31 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Did you ring!? Corona can go to hell!!  If you need some “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter”, I’ll take care of you.

BD63C2D4-F089-4765-A631-CEB21141DD63.jpeg

Address?  I'll be over in an hour and help you put a big dent in that stash lol. Though... I do have a bit of a cough and light fever ...hope that's not a problem. :D

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Address?  I'll be over in an hour and help you put a big dent in that stash lol. Though... I do have a bit of a cough and light fever ...hope that's not a problem. :D

Now THAT is how you prepare :lol: 

I might need to make a beer run.

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