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March Banter 2020

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And stop reporting stupid shit that’s in banter. Act like an adult and work it out privately. 

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22 hours ago, nj2va said:

With an extremely heavy heart, I’m sad to say our 12 year old Wire Fox Terrier passed onto doggie heaven yesterday. He suddenly got ill on Friday morning and never recovered. He was an energetic 12 year old “puppy” right up until Thursday night so at least he didn’t suffer for months.

He brought us so much happiness and we will miss him dearly. His “sister” Scottish Terrier also misses her partner in crime. For those with pets, hug them a little more today.

Here’s a picture of him at our Deep Creek house in January.

4861a47377548db55b93ab63ad7b3105.jpg

Sorry for the loss of your pup.

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19 minutes ago, Mersky said:

wait? So the guy lies about me sending him private messages and your solution is for me to send him a private message?? Lol 

I am. Though, better yet, just put him on ignore and he needs to put you on ignore. The two of you have been bitching like toddlers for a while now. I see every report that's been made against you both, not to mention the timeout you have received already for trolling in the NY subforum.

You're best bet is to just stop completely or else one of us mods will do it for you. 

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Thanks all for the kind words, was a comforting thing to read today.  

And on a lighter note, glad to see things haven't changed here while I've been gone.  :)

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So sorry for your loss @nj2va. Pets are 100% family and they hurt when they go. But he looked like a happy pup who was raised in a loving family. Just remember all the amazing memories. :)

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not really.  It’s still there as a possibility. But even a best case scenario it’s weak sauce. Whatever ejects out west is crashing into a huge ridge and de amplifying.  Could a slightly stronger wave lead to a mini thump...maybe but the whole setup was and is rather limited for anything more than conversation flakes. 

I’m completely swamped at work so haven’t been able to analyze or post much. This is by far the busiest time of year for me. The month before spring break is when everyone decides yearly stuff needs to get done and every deadline hits. 

But Mr. Hoffman, you post so much in here you wont ever meet your deadlines.  The cherry blossoms will be bloomed before you can ever manage to get your work done *In My Mersky voice which probably sounds like Christopher Walken*

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18 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

NCAA tourneys would be weird with no fans.  Sounds like the direction many are supporting.

People will still go to sports bars and watch. Just have some video up on the screens at the arenas and crank up the volume. Loud and rowdy inebriated people. That way it will still feel pretty normal.

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So dumb.

In the end it’s gonna be a ton of money spent, ruined events, and all for nothing.

I don’t care what they do, you will never contain the spread of this. So live life and let’s get on with it.

I can speak for the validity of this but I was listening to a guy on the radio yesterday and he was supposedly quoting stats from the cdc. He said that 80% of those who will contract this will require no medical attention. He also said that the average age of those who have died was 80!! He also said that ALL of them had underlying medical conditions. Now I don’t know if he was just speaking about the US or not.

 

Regardless, my hunch is that once we have a valid number of cases to base conclusions off of, meaning at least 500,000 us cases, that we are going to see a very low death rate and a specific set of victims.

Im not saying throw caution to the wind. Take precautions. But to let this thing tank economies, bring daily life to a standstill is ridiculous. The media is fanning these flames because it gets attention. We live in an age of sensationalism where logic and reason seemingly have no place.

Oh well, rant over. But I can tell you that I’m one person who is not going to let fear of a virus, a cold virus at that, keep me from doing anything I want to do.

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22 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Met winter is over. In 8 days, Astro winter will be too. Thank god. 

I personally wish winter was a month longer:sled:

All I think of when I saw the bolded word was this lol...

 

 

 

 

 

 

giphy.gif

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28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So dumb.

In the end it’s gonna be a ton of money spent, ruined events, and all for nothing.

I don’t care what they do, you will never contain the spread of this. So live life and let’s get on with it.

I can speak for the validity of this but I was listening to a guy on the radio yesterday and he was supposedly quoting stats from the cdc. He said that 80% of those who will contract this will require no medical attention. He also said that the average age of those who have died was 80!! He also said that ALL of them had underlying medical conditions. Now I don’t know if he was just speaking about the US or not.

 

Regardless, my hunch is that once we have a valid number of cases to base conclusions off of, meaning at least 500,000 us cases, that we are going to see a very low death rate and a specific set of victims.

Im not saying throw caution to the wind. Take precautions. But to let this thing tank economies, bring daily life to a standstill is ridiculous. The media is fanning these flames because it gets attention. We live in an age of sensationalism where logic and reason seemingly have no place.

Oh well, rant over. But I can tell you that I’m one person who is not going to let fear of a virus, a cold virus at that, keep me from doing anything I want to do.

This is simply nature's way of killing off the old people. Kids are not really affected- they are just vectors to pass it on to the old and sickly. People live too long today, thanks to science and medicine. 200 years ago life expectancy was under 50. I should be dead. 

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Unfortunately, I (and others!) quite like some of the old and sickly — some of whom are my professors, family member, and probably some of you all. I don’t like that my classes are moving online, but social distancing and isolation is hardly a waste of time. We are talking about lives here, people. C’mon now.

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Unfortunately, I (and others!) quite like some of the old and sickly — some of whom are my professors, family member, and probably some of you all. I don’t like that my classes are moving online, but social distancing and isolation is hardly a waste of time. We are talking about lives here, people. C’mon now.

HUGE waste of time, money, etc. 

Isolate the 80+ers with underlying medical conditions? Sure. 

But to do all this to the rest of us is absolutely ridiculous and 100% unnecessary. 

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HUGE waste of time, money, etc. 
Isolate the 80+ers with underlying medical conditions? Sure. 
But to do all this to the rest of us is absolutely ridiculous and 100% unnecessary. 

who takes care of the 80+ers? Who gets the caretakers their food? Do they visit their families? Do they go to the grocery store? What about the teenage grocers who will almost 100% be fine but will spread the virus?

You can’t just stick 80+ers on an island. Why not mitigate the spread and lower the damage curve? It’s irresponsible to do anything else. Trust me, I feel bad for everyone’s investments. But lives > money here. Tough to convince me otherwise.
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I’ll drop this soon because it depresses me a bit to talk about it, but it is all about flattening the curve. We need to keep ICU’s and hospitals available for those who need help. It isn’t rocket science to see why it’s best to shut things down for awhile, inconvenience be dammed.

See: Spanish Flu. Or check out any of the other hundreds of graphs that say the same thing.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So dumb.

In the end it’s gonna be a ton of money spent, ruined events, and all for nothing.

I don’t care what they do, you will never contain the spread of this. So live life and let’s get on with it.

I can speak for the validity of this but I was listening to a guy on the radio yesterday and he was supposedly quoting stats from the cdc. He said that 80% of those who will contract this will require no medical attention. He also said that the average age of those who have died was 80!! He also said that ALL of them had underlying medical conditions. Now I don’t know if he was just speaking about the US or not.

 

Regardless, my hunch is that once we have a valid number of cases to base conclusions off of, meaning at least 500,000 us cases, that we are going to see a very low death rate and a specific set of victims.

Im not saying throw caution to the wind. Take precautions. But to let this thing tank economies, bring daily life to a standstill is ridiculous. The media is fanning these flames because it gets attention. We live in an age of sensationalism where logic and reason seemingly have no place.

Oh well, rant over. But I can tell you that I’m one person who is not going to let fear of a virus, a cold virus at that, keep me from doing anything I want to do.

The argument on the other side is that while you can't contain the spread, you can slow it down so that hospitals do not become overwhelmed.  That is the scary scenario for the rest of us that aren't really at a high risk. 

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So dumb.

In the end it’s gonna be a ton of money spent, ruined events, and all for nothing.

I don’t care what they do, you will never contain the spread of this. So live life and let’s get on with it.

I can speak for the validity of this but I was listening to a guy on the radio yesterday and he was supposedly quoting stats from the cdc. He said that 80% of those who will contract this will require no medical attention. He also said that the average age of those who have died was 80!! He also said that ALL of them had underlying medical conditions. Now I don’t know if he was just speaking about the US or not.

 

Regardless, my hunch is that once we have a valid number of cases to base conclusions off of, meaning at least 500,000 us cases, that we are going to see a very low death rate and a specific set of victims.

Im not saying throw caution to the wind. Take precautions. But to let this thing tank economies, bring daily life to a standstill is ridiculous. The media is fanning these flames because it gets attention. We live in an age of sensationalism where logic and reason seemingly have no place.

Oh well, rant over. But I can tell you that I’m one person who is not going to let fear of a virus, a cold virus at that, keep me from doing anything I want to do.

I cant tell you how much I agree with what you are saying.. finally someone with audacity to come out and say the obvious.  given the fact that most people dont get sick and when they do test, they see the disease being transmitted at a very high rate, I wouldnt be surprised if I am carrying the virus right now.. leaving the common sense stuff aside I think that there is a bigger social issue that is going on here.. it feels like overnight we have become an altruistic society... one that views every situation as right or wrong... with no room for people to make their own informed decision.   There is no risk - reward analysis. 

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16 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:


who takes care of the 80+ers? Who gets the caretakers their food? Do they visit their families? Do they go to the grocery store? What about the teenage grocers who will almost 100% be fine but will spread the virus?

You can’t just stick 80+ers on an island. Why not mitigate the spread and lower the damage curve? It’s irresponsible to do anything else. Trust me, I feel bad for everyone’s investments. But lives > money here. Tough to convince me otherwise.

I'm pulling my hair out man. We have to look at this from the lenses of individual risk vs. systemic risk, but I'll set that aside to get straight to the point.  

Folks on Capitol Hill recently received a briefing that said current projections are that between 70-150 million Americans will get this eventually. For comparison, an estimated 60.8 million Americans got Swine Flu in one year, with approximately 12,000 deaths.

With this virus, we know that approximately 80% of folks will not need medical attention. That's good. But there's still 20% that will, and even if we're generous with a mortality rate of .5% overall, that's still 5x higher than the flu. All you have to do is run the numbers. 

Using the lower range of both transmission and mortality, that would leave 375,000 Americans at risk of dying from this. Not to mention millions of hospitalizations. 

I'm a young healthy guy. So while my individual risk is of getting really sick is low, there's a good chance I get it and become a carrier. That's where social distancing and all the cancellations that are going to annoy people matters. It's not about me. I'll more than likely be fine. It's about me and millions of others being used as hosts to infect vulnerable populations.

11SCI-VIRUS-TRACKER1-mediumSquareAt3X.jp

The less people that can be infected, especially in a short period of time, the less people in vulnerable populations are at risk. 

We're not just looking at people 80+ dying from this virus. At all. While it is true that the mortality rate jumps dramatically for those 80+, it is very high relative to other viruses for people 60+. This isn't even taking into account those that have underlying health conditions, of which there are tens of millions of Americans. 

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So once again, run the numbers. Do the math. 

There are some that are going to be fooled by the number of global cases and national cases, because those numbers are low relative to the total population. Only 1,000 cases? This isn't close to the flu! But exponential growth during pandemics tells us why we should be concerned now and take action now. 

Italy might have had 100 cases two weeks ago. Today there are over 10,000 cases. For every one person infected, they can infect 2-3 others. That's how you get one attorney in New Rochelle with coronavirus turning into over 100 in a few days. That's how you get one person at a Biogen conference in Boston turning into 70 in Boston in a few days.

Now replicate that...in just a hand full of towns in every state...and double it every week or two. That's what we're up against. Now is the time to slow the spread. 

Screen-Shot-2020-03-11-at-11.57.29-AM-e1

And that's why taking drastic action now matters. Exponential growth, it occurs to me, can be used in the opposite direction as well. For every one person that doesn't get infected because they don't go to work or a social gathering, that's 2-3 people they can't infect, and so on. 

You can't just isolate one demographic in this instance. VP Pence is 100% right here. It's not just a whole of government approach, it is a whole of America approach. 

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

Edited to fix the overall transmission projection from 75 million to 70 million.

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