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George BM

March Banter 2020

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5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

(12500 / 60M)*100 = .021%

(40 / 127K) *100 = .031%

I would not classify this as dramatically different.  Especially since they are being conservative with the test kits at the moment.   We know there are significantly more cases than have been confirmed.  Again, precautions are warranted, mass hysteria is not.

I think those numbers are off. It’s approximately 5k deaths for ~135k cases here (globally) that ends up creating a 3.7% mortality rate (which is certainly high). 

Even if you assume 60 million Americans get this (lower than some estimates) and there’s a .5% mortality rate, similar to South Korea, that’s an estimated 300,000 deaths. That dwarfs swine flu and anything we’ve seen in a long time. 

Closing schools and mass gatherings isn’t mass hysteria, nor is simply running or discussing the numbers. That’s good public health policy. We have to be clear eyed about this. It isn’t an existential threat to us all but it is a serious threat. 

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5 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Where are you getting that second number?  40/127k?

Yeah, double checked that data and it was wrong.  That's why I deleted the post.  1400 cases not 127K.

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6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yeah, double checked that data and it was wrong.  That's why I deleted the post.  1400 cases not 127K.

Yeah, it’s not great (around 3%) but probably not as bad as that in reality because we don’t have anywhere near an accurate count of the total number of cases.  Even 1% would be pretty bad though and about 10x worse than the flu.  

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https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

 

60 million plus cases, 12000 plus us deaths.

I don’t remember anything shutting down. Does anyone else?

Quick math... that is a fatality rate of 0.02%.

 

What is the low-bar estimate on Coronavirus fatalities? .5-1% of cases — albeit with symptoms noticeable enough to get diagnosed. That rate becomes much, much higher when a bunch of cases appear in one area, which is why things get shut down. What is happening in Lombardy isn’t fake... I don’t understand why people continually seek to minimize the severity of this issue.

 

And for the record, schools definitely closed for swine flu. Obviously things weren’t cancelled at this level. But swine flu was much less severe, and potentially less contagious. People really think famous NBA players, UK and Brazilian government officials, Tom Hanks, and the wife of Justin Trudeau are randomly getting the virus while common folk remain unaffected? Hint: it’s already everywhere, these guys just have the clout to get rushed tests.

 

Maybe that is a good sign that the fatality number might be lower, but given the number of vulnerable people... why not shut things down?

 

 

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think those numbers are off. It’s approximately 5k deaths for ~135k cases here (globally) that ends up creating a 3.7% mortality rate (which is certainly high). 

Even if you assume 60 million Americans get this (lower than some estimates) and there’s a .5% mortality rate, similar to South Korea, that’s an estimated 300,000 deaths. That dwarfs swine flu and anything we’ve seen in a long time. 

Closing schools and mass gatherings isn’t mass hysteria, nor is simply running or discussing the numbers. That’s good public health policy. We have to be clear eyed about this. It isn’t an existential threat to us all but it is a serious threat. 

Spot on but I’m slightly optimistic that we can keep the total number below 60,000,000 by taking the social distancing and mitigation steps that we are doing now.  We didn’t do much of those things with swine flu, although we did have the benefit of a vaccine.  

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To add context to this, my mom lives in a county where there’s been multiple coronavirus cases and a death. 

Today she needed to go to the emergency room. This was at 4pm today, ambulance and all, under a physician’s order.

The local hospital is a madhouse. It’s 11pm and she still doesn’t have a room. Now imagine dozens of coronavirus patients needing care at the same time in rural areas. Imagine hundreds or thousands in urban understaffed hospitals.

Us young and healthy folks have to stop looking at it from our narrow personalized perspective.

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

To add context to this, my mom lives in a county where there’s been multiple coronavirus cases and a death. 

Today she needed to go to the emergency room. This was at 4pm today, ambulance and all, under a physician’s order.

The local hospital is a madhouse. It’s 11pm and she still doesn’t have a room. Now imagine dozens of coronavirus patients needing care at the same time in rural areas. Imagine hundreds or thousands in urban understaffed hospitals.

Us young and healthy folks have to stop looking at it from our narrow personalized perspective.

I'm pulling for your mother to make a full recovery.

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

To add context to this, my mom lives in a county where there’s been multiple coronavirus cases and a death. 

Today she needed to go to the emergency room. This was at 4pm today, ambulance and all, under a physician’s order.

The local hospital is a madhouse. It’s 11pm and she still doesn’t have a room. Now imagine dozens of coronavirus patients needing care at the same time in rural areas. Imagine hundreds or thousands in urban understaffed hospitals.

Us young and healthy folks have to stop looking at it from our narrow personalized perspective.

Sorry to hear about your mom.  Prayers for her, and you.

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Thanks everyone—she has a different medical issue, but she’s definitely in that vulnerable population. I don’t want to be a downer or be too personal but yeah, you definitely want to keep hospitals clearer and the only way to do that is by taking steps to flatten the curve.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks everyone—she has a different medical issue, but she’s definitely in that vulnerable population. I don’t want to be a downer or be too personal but yeah, you definitely want to keep hospitals clearer and the only way to do that is by taking steps to flatten the curve.

I’m with you.  These steps will literally save lives.  The economy will suffer for sure but it will bounce back eventually.  

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5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You think there might be a spike in the birth rate, in say, 9 or so months from now?

You should be concerned about the xenophobic fallout from this. I know this isn’t a political board so I’ll leave it at that. 

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9 hours ago, supernovasky said:

Thanks Mattie. I’ll be fine. Today was better than yesterday so I think I’m finally turning the corner. WHATEVER it is I have, I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.

Similar symptoms?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/health/coronavirus-survivor-elizabeth-schneider/index.html

Also, this is good news.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-13/roche-gets-clearance-for-coronavirus-test-that-s-10-times-faster

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Hopefully there's something left at the grocery store later this afternoon when I stop in :lol: I've bought nothing yet.  Been pretty slammed at work. Also...I've already have had one customer tell me she's putting off her house remodel until this thing is over ....the panic has begun lol.

 

Classic :lmao:

 

PhotoPictureResizer_200313_063310329_crop_707x604.jpg

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13 hours ago, supernovasky said:

I have been sick as a dog. Dry cough, fever 101, sore throat, malaise, weakness, etc. For 8 days. I went to the doc yesterday who swabbed for strep and flu. Negative on both. Asked about covid, testing isn’t there unless you have a known contact or went out of the country. I do have a lot of contact in my job with international people.

 

Who knows. It’s been ugh though. Hope everyone is well and stays healthy through this.

Yikes, feel better and try to stay home as much as you can.

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I’m gonna probably go crazy the next two weeks while home with kiddo. There’s not nearly enough booze in the house for that. 

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Thought just occurred to me.  If this is it, like really it and lots of us get sick, the last winter we had on this earth was a  shit ass dead ratter.  How depressing.  

 

 

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’m gonna probably go crazy the next two weeks while home with kiddo. There’s not nearly enough booze in the house for that. 

I am legit gonna stop on my way home and get a case of beer and hit up the ABC store for gin, rum and anything else I think I might need.  It won't be Scraff epic but the hell if i'm going to lose my mind while sober during all this.

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5 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’m gonna probably go crazy the next two weeks while home with kiddo. There’s not nearly enough booze in the house for that. 

Good luck !!:lol: 

With all the people staying home from work my commute to my jobs will be a cake walk ..easy drives each day . No waiting for equipment at the gym either lol.

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3 minutes ago, H2O said:

I am legit gonna stop on my way home and get a case of beer and hit up the ABC store for gin, rum and anything else I think I might need.  It won't be Scraff epic but the hell if i'm going to lose my mind while sober during all this.

I'm with you.  I've gotten nothing  . Please let there be beer left .

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm with you.  I've gotten nothing  . Please let there be beer left .

I don't do alcohol but I did stop by the dispensary and stocked up on cannabis lol

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7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

To add context to this, my mom lives in a county where there’s been multiple coronavirus cases and a death. 

Today she needed to go to the emergency room. This was at 4pm today, ambulance and all, under a physician’s order.

The local hospital is a madhouse. It’s 11pm and she still doesn’t have a room. Now imagine dozens of coronavirus patients needing care at the same time in rural areas. Imagine hundreds or thousands in urban understaffed hospitals.

Us young and healthy folks have to stop looking at it from our narrow personalized perspective.

100% 

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22 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Closed.  Can’t see them opening prior to Easter. 

How they came to this decision is just lol.  Doing a complete 180 and closing is just egg on their faces.  And making the call at midnight is extra lol.  Its good they did it but i wish it had been done differently.

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42 minutes ago, H2O said:

I am legit gonna stop on my way home and get a case of beer and hit up the ABC store for gin, rum and anything else I think I might need.  It won't be Scraff epic but the hell if i'm going to lose my mind while sober during all this.

 

40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Good luck !!:lol: 

With all the people staying home from work my commute to my jobs will be a cake walk ..easy drives each day . No waiting for equipment at the gym either lol.

We have plans with a small group of friends tomorrow night, so when I run out for that booze run, i'll be picking up extra to keep at home. I'm out of wine, and whiskey :weep:

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14 hours ago, Scraff said:

Did you ring!? Corona can go to hell!!  If you need some “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter”, I’ll take care of you.

BD63C2D4-F089-4765-A631-CEB21141DD63.jpeg

Hysteria sounds like an appropriate brew right now

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9 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

We may as well just create a Corona Virus thread lol...someone with better luck than me, create it and bring it home

Actually, this is a great idea. The threat will dissipate a few hours after the thread opens up. Miracle cure at 12z and back to tracking the SE ridge at 18z? :lol: 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Actually, this is a great idea. The threat will dissipate a few hours after the thread opens up. Miracle cure at 12z and back to tracking the SE ridge at 18z? :lol: 

confluence(inebriation) will cause us to shear out and only the weed heads will be up for the 0z because they have the munchies

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