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George BM

March Banter 2020

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46 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

You know what scares me more than the virus... large groups of crazy, ignorant Americans stuck at home with nothing to do, looking for someone to blame.

You think there might be a spike in the birth rate, in say, 9 or so months from now?

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^At least we could offset all the old/sick people that will die from this affliction. Wouldn't want to see a reduction in population. Not enough people in this country now.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You think there might be a spike in the birth rate, in say, 9 or so months from now?

Absolutely definitely.

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2 hours ago, supernovasky said:

I have been sick as a dog. Dry cough, fever 101, sore throat, malaise, weakness, etc. For 8 days. I went to the doc yesterday who swabbed for strep and flu. Negative on both. Asked about covid, testing isn’t there unless you have a known contact or went out of the country. I do have a lot of contact in my job with international people.

 

Who knows. It’s been ugh though. Hope everyone is well and stays healthy through this.

It’s insane that they won’t/can’t test. Absolutely f’ing insane.

Sorry that you’re down for the count, but I hope you get through it soon!

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12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It’s insane that they won’t/can’t test. Absolutely f’ing insane.

Sorry that you’re down for the count, but I hope you get through it soon!

Thanks Mattie. I’ll be fine. Today was better than yesterday so I think I’m finally turning the corner. WHATEVER it is I have, I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.

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3 hours ago, supernovasky said:

I have been sick as a dog. Dry cough, fever 101, sore throat, malaise, weakness, etc. For 8 days. I went to the doc yesterday who swabbed for strep and flu. Negative on both. Asked about covid, testing isn’t there unless you have a known contact or went out of the country. I do have a lot of contact in my job with international people.

 

Who knows. It’s been ugh though. Hope everyone is well and stays healthy through this.

I read somewhere that shortness of breath is a sign.  That's the extent of my medical knowledge.

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The vast majority of my money is still in the G fund. I was talking about setting my contribution allocations going forward (which I've got set to nearly all C fund now)- I will be dollar cost averaging all the way down.

I don't think anyone knows where the bottom will be (I certainly don't) and attempting to time the market and "look for the bottom" are not going to work. I do know that the last few years have been ridiculously overvalued, which is why I sat it out. I've been waiting for this bear market. And to think, just a few months ago I was told the exact opposite- "You're still sitting in the G Fund? You're missing out on this historic bull market!" 

I'm totally fine with a 50% drop, the lower the better. I have a lot of time... unless you're going to argue we're Japan in the 1980's, in which case we're all screwed anyway so it doesn't matter.

Went to a financial planner that recommended that based on my age/retirement dates and risk tolerance, I should shift to the L2050 fund which is obviously more aggressive.  He said that at near the market top.  I made the realignment this afternoon.  Saved 20%+ on the way down.  If it goes down more, eh, don't care. 

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Just now, supernovasky said:

Thanks Mattie. I’ll be fine. Today was better than yesterday so I think I’m finally turning the corner. WHATEVER it is I have, I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.

I echo everyone else on here in saying I hope you make a full recovery. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Address?  I'll be over in an hour and help you put a big dent in that stash lol. Though... I do have a bit of a cough and light fever ...hope that's not a problem. :D

I live in downtown Venice. Text me when you get here. 

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Just now, supernovasky said:

I think we will be lucky to get out of this with 12k plus us deaths. It’ll take serious quarantine measures.

You think more than 12k deaths from this in the US?  I find that hard to believe considering China has leveled off new cases.  I guess time will tell.  

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

You think more than 12k deaths from this in the US?  I find that hard to believe considering China has leveled off new cases.  I guess time will tell.  

China leveled off cases with massive testing, the most comprehensive quarantine ever established, and quarantining all incoming people for 14 days.

 

also... Hubei can’t go back to normal. They are still massively locked down 6 weeks later.

 

and... China lucked out in a way by being the first country because when they established their measures, they could focus on one single area. We aren’t so lucky. We will have Hubei like situations all over our country.

 

 

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Let me also add... during the whole outbreak, they got masks sent from all other countries and made their own along with other PPE. Now the supply chain is all kinds of messed up and we can’t even get the chemical required to extract the viral RNA for testing.

 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/rna-extraction-kits-for-covid-19-tests-are-in-short-supply-in-us-67250

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Let me also add... during the whole outbreak, they got masks sent from all other countries and made their own along with other PPE. Now the supply chain is all kinds of messed up and we can’t even get the chemical required to extract the viral RNA for testing.

 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/rna-extraction-kits-for-covid-19-tests-are-in-short-supply-in-us-67250

I did read 648 new cases in Hubel...but falling elsewhere in China.  That is if you believe Chinese data and reporting. I don’t actually.  But I still hope not 12K US deaths.  I agree we have a long way to go before we are in the mend with new cases and without enough testing thousands more US citizens may have it and not know.  My daughter has type 1 diabetes so I am nervous for her more than the rest of my family. We will pray.  

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Just now, nj2va said:

Grocery stores are legit madhouses today...I stocked up before today but friends have sent pictures...lines to get in some stores...empty shelves...

My wife just returned from a 3 hour trek to BJs in Gainesville.  Shelves picked clean, arguments between patrons, and no chips...I said it no chips..not one bag of Doritos..nothing 

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I did read 648 new cases in Hubel...but falling elsewhere in China.  That is if you believe Chinese data and reporting. I don’t actually.  But I still hope not 12K US deaths.  I agree we have a long way to go before we are in the mend with new cases and without enough testing thousands more US citizens may have it and not know.  My daughter has type 1 diabetes so I am nervous for her more than the rest of my family. We will pray.  

I really just hope we can get the testing up soon.

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Grocery stores are legit madhouses today...I stocked up before today but friends have sent pictures...lines to get in some stores...empty shelves...

I cant be bothered. I have a few things in. I'll do carry out for a while.

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16 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I really just hope we can get the testing up soon.

What does the testing do? There is no cure. I suppose if you can get people to self quarantine it might slow the spread. But we aren’t going to get people to stay home. I went out tonight for dinner and the place was running over with people. They may be able to keep people from gathering in the tens of thousands but there are still gonna be large gatherings of people, and many tens of thousands of those gathering across the country.

What happens if we have a million test kits? 10 million?  Does everyone who gets a sniffle or a cough go get tested? What then? How do we handle that? 
 

We gonna close businesses? Gas stations? Food stores? Where does this end. A mass panic seems very unlikely to be the best course of action here.

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32 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Grocery stores are legit madhouses today...I stocked up before today but friends have sent pictures...lines to get in some stores...empty shelves...

I am a Store Manager of a Grocery store and it's been crazy the last week. Not 1 pack of toilet paper left in the store. No hand sanitizer and cleaning products, etc. Problem is our warehouse is out of it and will probably be out of it for an extended period of time. 

Its really histeria going on right now

 

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6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I am a Store Manager of a Grocery store and it's been crazy the last week. Not 1 pack of toilet paper left in the store. No hand sanitizer and cleaning products, etc. Problem is our warehouse is out of it and will probably be out of it for an extended period of time. 

Its really histeria going on right now

 

I don't understand the run on TP.. this virus doesn't give you the shits as far as I know.. even if you run out, that's what showers and leaves are for

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2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

I don't understand the run on TP.. this virus doesn't give you the shits as far as I know.. even if you run out, that's what showers and leaves are for

Lol. Yep. I dont get it either. Hand sanitizer and cleaning products sure.  

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Although a lot of people got swine flu, the mortality and hospitalization rates were dramatically lower than the data we’ve seen so far from novel coronavirus. That was really a situation where it wasn’t much worse than the flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

Coronavirus is a whole different ballgame. We better hope we got ahead of this to slow the rate of transmission. South Korea is doing extraordinary things with testing and their mortality rate but we’re clearly on the Italy track if we don’t keep ramping up our social distancing and hospital readiness.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20Z27P

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27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

What does the testing do? There is no cure. I suppose if you can get people to self quarantine it might slow the spread. But we aren’t going to get people to stay home. I went out tonight for dinner and the place was running over with people. They may be able to keep people from gathering in the tens of thousands but there are still gonna be large gatherings of people, and many tens of thousands of those gathering across the country.

What happens if we have a million test kits? 10 million?  Does everyone who gets a sniffle or a cough go get tested? What then? How do we handle that? 
 

We gonna close businesses? Gas stations? Food stores? Where does this end. A mass panic seems very unlikely to be the best course of action here.

I think the answer is simple. Testing is critical to tracking and stopping the outbreak. How would we even know a single person had it without a test?

We could just say fucck it, who cares? We get all sorts of viruses and (most) survive and move on. Lots get the flu every year. This is new, however, and its behavior is largely unknown. It is pretty clear it is more severe than the flu and the fatality rate among older folks is much higher though. And ofc, there is no vaccine.

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21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

What does the testing do? There is no cure. I suppose if you can get people to self quarantine it might slow the spread. But we aren’t going to get people to stay home. I went out tonight for dinner and the place was running over with people. They may be able to keep people from gathering in the tens of thousands but there are still gonna be large gatherings of people, and many tens of thousands of those gathering across the country.

What happens if we have a million test kits? 10 million?  Does everyone who gets a sniffle or a cough go get tested? What then? How do we handle that? 
 

We gonna close businesses? Gas stations? Food stores? Where does this end. A mass panic seems very unlikely to be the best course of action here.

So there are two ways to control this disease:

- The massive quarantine system.  This is the China method. It works. It's brutal and effective. It costs the country greatly economically.

The surgical contact tracing system. To do this you need MASSIVE testing capacity. South Korea has run 200k tests and they are much smaller than us. When they get a hit, they not only contact trace, they alert everyone via text message about an area where a coronavirus patient was at that they may have passed through. They ALL wear masks. They all drive through test at the slightest symptom.

 

There's actually a third... The Italy, Iran, and now the United States system... which is to let it burn through. Iran tried this and it brought them to their knees, infecting and killing politicians and leaders. Italy tried this and now they're importing help from China.

 

We're trying it too. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Although a lot of people got swine flu, the mortality and hospitalization rates were dramatically lower than the data we’ve seen so far from novel coronavirus. That was really a situation where it wasn’t much worse than the flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

Coronavirus is a whole different ballgame. We better hope we got ahead of this to slow the rate of transmission. South Korea is doing extraordinary things with testing and their mortality rate but we’re clearly on the Italy track if we don’t keep ramping up our social distancing and hospital readiness.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20Z27P

Adequate testing is so important to know what extent of it we are dealing with and to make the appropriate decisions based off of how widespread it is and what areas ,etc. Its impossible to make educated decisions if we dont have all the facts. IMHO its crazy that we do not have the ability to adequately do testing right now in the most powerful county in the world.

 

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6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Adequate testing is so important to know what extent of it we are dealing with and to make the appropriate decisions based off of how widespread it is and what areas ,etc. Its impossible to make educated decisions if we dont have all the facts. IMHO its crazy that we do not have the ability to adequately do testing right now in the most powerful county in the world.

 

Sadly I think that ship has sailed. Our state has six confirmed cases and has only tested about 100 people. Yesterday there were three cases and the state epidemiologist said we should assume widespread community transmission in the county closest to NYC.

Today there were three more cases and he said in the next month 10 to 20 percent of the state could contract the virus and 70% by the end of the year if we do nothing. That’s at least a thousand deaths assuming the very lowest end of the mortality data we have. Just here. We’re almost flying blind here and it’s a shame. 

We just have to do the best we can. At least Congress seems to have its act together.

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Sadly I think that ship has sailed. Our state has six confirmed cases and has only tested about 100 people. Yesterday there were three cases and the state epidemiologist said we should assume widespread community transmission in the county closest to NYC.

Today there were three more cases and he said in the next month 10 to 20 percent of the state could contract the virus and 70% by the end of the year if we do nothing. That’s at least a thousand deaths assuming the very lowest end of the mortality data we have. Just here. We’re almost flying blind here and it’s a shame. 

We just have to do the best we can. At least Congress seems to have its act together.

dunno about you, but I’ve been impressed with the fairly rapid speed we’ve managed to socially distance in the past 48 hours. It should have happened weeks ago, and the testing has still been horrendous, but the rapid progress by private companies, state governments, and schools has given me some hope that we are making good progressing on flattening the curve. The virus is almost 100% already in most metropolitan communities, but many people seem to be taking it seriously. I’ve felt a seismic shift amongst my peers in the past few days.

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18 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

- The massive quarantine system.  This is the China method. It works. It's brutal and effective. It costs the country

Brutal is right. There were reports that China was literally dragging people into quarantine zones and WELDING them in their homes. 

If China was willing to halt their economy and weld their factory workers into their homes to prevent virus spread, that probably tells you everything you need to know.

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7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

(12500 / 60M)*100 = .021%

(40 / 127K) *100 = .031%

I would not classify this as dramatically different.  Especially since they are being conservative with the test kits at the moment.   We know there are significantly more cases than have been confirmed.  Again, precautions are warranted, mass hysteria is not.

Where are you getting that second number?  40/127k?

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