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The next 8 days are averaging 48degs., or about 7degs.  AN.

The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 47*[38/56] or about 5degs. AN.      It still insists on snow near the 11th-12th, this time 11".

46* here at 6am.        51* by Noon.         57* by 3:30pm.         58* at 4pm.       51* by 9pm.

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Looks like we narrowly edged out 1990 for most positive February AO on record. Hopefully, a lingering +AO and related SST warmth off the East Coast results in fewer backdoor cold fronts than average for spring. The one caveat would be an AO reversal before the spring ends leading to more backdoors like last spring. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

2020  2.419  3.417

1990  1.001  3.402  
 

CD42B27B-16F1-42E1-A099-F026768DB5B4.png.2476f66102b13333a9d92189dfa71553.png

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Nice T storm last night in Colts Neck, the 1st of the season.

 

Looking forward to severe weather. 

 

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we narrowly edged out 1990 for most positive February AO on record. Hopefully, a lingering +AO and related SST warmth off the East Coast results in fewer backdoor cold fronts than average for spring. The one caveat would be an AO reversal before the spring ends leading to more backdoors like last spring. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

2020  2.419  3.417

1990  1.001  3.402  

 

CD42B27B-16F1-42E1-A099-F026768DB5B4.png.2476f66102b13333a9d92189dfa71553.png

this winter definitely had the feel of 1989-90.  Thats why I was wondering if we would get similar heat in March.

Chris, are there any winters where all three winter months averaged over 40 F?  And how many winters that weren't strong or super el ninos had as little snowfall as this winter has had?

 

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14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this winter definitely had the feel of 1989-90.  Thats why I was wondering if we would get similar heat in March.

Chris, are there any winters where all three winter months averaged over 40 F?  And how many winters that weren't strong or super el ninos had as little snowfall as this winter has had?

 

LGA did it in 2001-2002.

2001-2002 44.6 40.4 40.8 41.9
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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

LGA did it in 2001-2002.

2001-2002 44.6 40.4 40.8 41.9

thats why I was wondering if the growing season started earlier that year- we had a very late first freeze and a very early last freeze lol.

I bet there is a very short list of under 10 inch snowfall seasons that aren't strong or super el ninos.

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Did 2001-02 have an earlier leaf out than this?

 

97 did, that's why the April Fool's storm was so destructive. That month the leaves were popping on nearly every type of tree here by 3/15 whereas at this point there's nothing happening yet. Will it green up in the next two weeks? Maybe but somehow I don't think so. 2012 is fuzzy for me but I do remember it greening up early but that may have been ground cover not the trees or I probably would have remembered it.

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Today saw readings again reach much above normal levels. However, cooler air could return for a short time late in the week. As that happens, a storm could develop and deepen along the cold front well offshore with the potential to bring a little snow to parts of the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a light measurable snowfall is possible. Afterward, there is strong support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was +7.99 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.451.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 12, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the middle of the second week of March.

On March 3, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.884 (RMM). The March 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.781.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

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The next 8 days are averaging 47degs., or about 6degs. AN.

The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 45degs.[38/53], or about 3degs. AN.        68* on the 16th. is the star.       Down to 1" of snow for the 11th-12th.

41* here at 6am.        42* by 9am.         47* by Noon.        51* by 3pm.         53* about 4pm.    Down to  44* by 5:30pm.

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Next Monday looks to be the warmest day of met spring so far. Euro and GFS MOS both have highs in the mid 60’s. So a guidance beat could push the warm spots near 70 degrees. But so far it has been the record warm minimum temperatures that have stood out.

 

21844ABF-50B1-48EB-BBA2-C9A7FFD67C09.thumb.png.0c87e115e329c2185598030d6ee70987.png

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Next Monday looks to be the warmest day of met spring so far. Euro and GFS MOS both have highs in the mid 60’s. So a guidance beat could push the warm spots near 70 degrees. But so far it has been the record warm minimum temperatures that have stood out.

 

21844ABF-50B1-48EB-BBA2-C9A7FFD67C09.thumb.png.0c87e115e329c2185598030d6ee70987.png

 

LGA also set a record high minimum temperature of 49 on March 3.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Next Monday looks to be the warmest day of met spring so far. Euro and GFS MOS both have highs in the mid 60’s. So a guidance beat could push the warm spots near 70 degrees. But so far it has been the record warm minimum temperatures that have stood out.

 

21844ABF-50B1-48EB-BBA2-C9A7FFD67C09.thumb.png.0c87e115e329c2185598030d6ee70987.png

 

Beautiful. I can start some yard work, and can do some work on the car. 

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3 hours ago, CarLover014 said:

Beautiful. I can start some yard work, and can do some work on the car. 

The Euro continues this warm pattern until further notice.

 

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FLASH!     12Z GFS  shows first 80-Degree Day for the 19th!.     Still has some snow near the 12th-13th.       It has 14 of the next 17 days up to at least 50.       The average T for the period 52*[44/59] .

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro continues this warm pattern until further notice.

 

Shades of 2012. That screams 60s and 70s. Even an 80F reading wouldn't surprise me later in the month. 

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33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Shades of 2012. That screams 60s and 70s. Even an 80F reading wouldn't surprise me later in the month. 

It will be interesting to see if the warm spots can make it to 80 before the end of March. The only two years since 2010 that Newark reached 80 or warmer were 2011 and 2016.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2019 77 0
2018 62 0
2017 73 0
2016 82 0
2015 64 0
2014 67 0
2013 61 0
2012 79 0
2011 80 0
2010 75 0

 

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Central Park will likely do something it has only done once in its history, have a February and March combine for only a trace of snowfall. Only other year to do that was in 2002.

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28 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Central Park will likely do something it has only done once in its history, have a February and March combine for only a trace of snowfall. Only other year to do that was in 2002.

And if I recall correctly, 2002 was a very Warm and dry summer. Perhaps we get that this year? 

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1 hour ago, golfer07840 said:

And if I recall correctly, 2002 was a very Warm and dry summer. Perhaps we get that this year? 

With a repeat of 2002-03 to follow.

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Cooler air is now poised to return for a short time starting tomorrow. As that happens, a storm will likely develop and deepen well offshore with the potential to bring some light snow or snow showers to the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a light measurable snowfall remains possible. The New York City Metro area will likely see a cold rain. Afterward, there is strong support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was +7.27 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.656.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 13, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the latter part of the second week of March.

On March 4, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.793 (RMM). The March 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.887.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. The probability that New York City will experience among the 10 warmest March cases on record has increased in recent days.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the warm spots can make it to 80 before the end of March. The only two years since 2010 that Newark reached 80 or warmer were 2011 and 2016.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2019 77 0
2018 62 0
2017 73 0
2016 82 0
2015 64 0
2014 67 0
2013 61 0
2012 79 0
2011 80 0
2010 75 0

 

Hard to believe the maximum was only 79 in 2012, especially considering many of the readings in the Midwest and New England.

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5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

With a repeat of 2002-03 to follow.

Yes, I remember that winter starting off with a bang. Big snow storm on Christmas eve (I think?). 

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4 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Hard to believe the maximum was only 79 in 2012, especially considering many of the readings in the Midwest and New England.

In March 2012 Chicago had a nine day stretch in the middle of the month where they hit 80 or above 8 of the 9 days. The one day they didn’t it hit 79. I always wonder what that stretch would have looked like in mid July. Scary thought. 

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