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4 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM is 1-2 inches for the HV, doesn't even give the catskills that much, looks like Adirondacks and part of NE do well.

Storm 2 will be extremely dynamic dependent, no cold air in place, the Euro and to some extent the CMC are hinting at dynamics flipping rain to snow in the interior but we know the trend this winter is for models to overestimate storm strength/dynamic cooling in the medium range

I'm hoping for an inch, well, not really but if it has to be sloppy I'm gonna be optimistic. Dynamic storms that have a radical flip aren't uncommon up here with 4/1/97 being the king in the last 20 years.

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Like clockwork -nao for the end of March and to start April. I wouldn’t expect anymore 70-80 degree days anytime soon 

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4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Like clockwork -nao for the end of March and to start April. I wouldn’t expect anymore 70-80 degree days anytime soon 

Classic early Spring raw days today and Wednesday. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 47.5degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  +7.5[48.5].         Should be about  +6.2[48.3]by the 30th.

41* here at 6am---was 39* during the overnight period.     40* Rain at 7am.

For today's possible snow:    EURO up to 1", CMC a Trace, GFS 0", NAM 0".

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Light snow continues, dusting on the lawn/trees. 

The snow made my 3.5 year old very happy to see when she woke up. The innocence of youth... As CP said, a nice diversion. 

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8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Like clockwork -nao for the end of March and to start April. I wouldn’t expect anymore 70-80 degree days anytime soon 

Unbeliveable

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8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Like clockwork -nao for the end of March and to start April. I wouldn’t expect anymore 70-80 degree days anytime soon 

Yeah, back door pattern setting up with plenty of high pressure over New England.

25A50904-BE69-42C3-A971-501E3A30E816.thumb.png.cdb14c7b3d278195ae02a2c867c15b26.png

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats the reason this happens now and not during winter?  that seems to be quite common

The Pv is breaking down. Once that happens it was only a matter of time until we got a period of blocking. 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

The Pv is breaking down. Once that happens it was only a matter of time until we got a period of blocking. 

the interesting thing from a statistical point of view is that - NAO seem to be much more common in the spring than they are in the winter.  And they seem to last much longer during spring time too.

I think Chris posted somewhere why the PV was so strong this year.

 

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats the reason this happens now and not during winter?  that seems to be quite common

This year it probably has to do with the uber strong PV breaking down...

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Hopefully the SE ridge can fight it off somewhat...plus we have warmer SST's off the east coast-last year there was a cold pool of water off the NE coast so when that onshore flow kicked in it was cold and nasty

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

whats the reason this happens now and not during winter?  that seems to be quite common

The PV decays when the sunlight returns to the Arctic in the spring.

 

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