jbenedet Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: What do you have for pack? 1"? Heh. 1-3” mostly. But quite a bit of ice in that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Heh. 1-3” mostly. But quite a bit of ice in that... Wet bulbs are pretty low the next 2 days. Tuesday will probably be a net gain here too. I mean, if you start getting open spots in your pack with sun the next 2 days maybe it starts to erode a little quicker, but this isn't exactly a pack decimating pattern...especially for mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 44 minutes ago, klw said: Someone posted a map with Dennis at 922 yesterday? Was that the lowest it got? I read it reached 920 mb as of Sat afternoon. I think it was modeled to get to 915 at one point but not sure it got to that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I read it reached 920 mb as of Sat afternoon. I think it was modeled to get to 915 at one point but not sure it got to that I want that at 40/70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pro... Still learning... ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, klw said: Someone posted a map with Dennis at 922 yesterday? Was that the lowest it got? That Storm was modeled well and guidance isn’t really forcing a big ridge there at the moment. I’m not sure something will miraculously change on guidance, but the massive +AO vortex will weaken a bit later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 It sucks that the wave next week is going to be flat. We have plenty of cold in place. We can't get lucky at all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: NWS thinking Dennis helping to usher in a pattern change? Dennis ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It sucks that the wave next week is going to be flat. We have plenty of cold in place. We can't get lucky at all. i think we want it to be flat so that it doesn't amplify intot he great lakes and flood us with warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Dennis ? I had to look it up...it's a weather channel name for the storm in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Dennis ? The beefy storm affecting Europe now. It bombed out down to 920. My bad for using TWCs name for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Nice refresher 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBrosForever Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Dennis ? NWS Boston A pattern change? Possibly in early March per @NWSCPC 3-4 week outlook w/Alaska trending to a warmer pattern & Northeast (#MA #RI #CT) to a colder pattern. Possible culprit? Powerful cyclone (920 mb!) near Iceland yesterday with #hurricane winds may contribute to a pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Ok, I'll take this deal. Hold onto existing snow pack and add to it this week a bit, then get a 2 week period of snow and cold end of month and first 10 days of March. Then a melt out and peas in the garden by April 1. i was out on the snowmobile up your way yesterday. Trailered to Depot St then jumped on the rail trail and headed up towards Lebanon. Tons of sled traffic, but the trail was awesome. very convenient spot to trailer to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 I don’t see how this storm is any different than normal subseasonal stuff that results in pattern changes. Sounds like an easy way to point a finger, but it’s probably more complicated then one storm. I also caution how far out we are....pattern changes aren’t a complete lock....or should I say a favorable pattern change for us, is not a complete lock. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don’t see how this storm is any different than normal subseasonal stuff that results in pattern changes. Sounds like an easy way to point a finger, but it’s probably more complicated then one storm. I also caution how far out we are....pattern changes aren’t a complete lock....or should I say a favorable pattern change for us, is not a complete lock. There are 50 shades (patterns) of suck for the coast , so maybe we land on a decent one for more than a week period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice refresher There will be some rain as well at least here. So not a great refresher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice refresher would gladly take that 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: i was out on the snowmobile up your way yesterday. Trailered to Depot St then jumped on the rail trail and headed up towards Lebanon. Tons of sled traffic, but the trail was awesome. very convenient spot to trailer to. surprised there was enough snow down towards Boscawen. The trails just near my property by Walker Pond are groomed but it looks like 8 inches or so. But glad you're riding! The rail trail is awesome all seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, SnowBrosForever said: NWS Boston A pattern change? Possibly in early March per @NWSCPC 3-4 week outlook w/Alaska trending to a warmer pattern & Northeast (#MA #RI #CT) to a colder pattern. Possible culprit? Powerful cyclone (920 mb!) near Iceland yesterday with #hurricane winds may contribute to a pattern change AWMFT, let’s go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: ? Just busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: AWMFT, let’s go. As we muthufuking thought right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, SnowBrosForever said: NWS Boston A pattern change? Possibly in early March per @NWSCPC 3-4 week outlook w/Alaska trending to a warmer pattern & Northeast (#MA #RI #CT) to a colder pattern. Possible culprit? Powerful cyclone (920 mb!) near Iceland yesterday with #hurricane winds may contribute to a pattern change AO remains in enemy territory so maybe a pattern change but one that is another version of suck for winter fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Nah ... singular events can relate, but they don't drive pattern changes... Typically that interpretation has that bass-ackwards - the pattern begins to change, and THAT triggers the 'restoration event' That's also the basis behind the H. Archembault statistical science, too. Big events happen at inflection points in large mass-field paradigm shifts. Not always, but tend to... So, a 920 mb low near Iceland probably doesn't hurt to 'mix things out' a bit .. but the persistent +AO cannot last forever, and we are definitely nearing the typical age of pattern mortality - they usually don't last more than 45 ...may 60 days, before some new paradigm sets in. The happenstance of the Icelandic low is iffy-related at best.. Sometimes the new look bears vestige/echo of old, but will still be observably different in a few ways. Other times, the whole scale appeal is more coherently changed. What makes this [ possible ] pattern seam interesting ( for me ) is that it is happening on top of the typical season ending blocking climo. The two together is a kind of constructive interference. The AO there is (firstly) subject to change that far out in time. Particularly per my own experience, when it camel-humps in-between, too - that's not lending confidence to the farther extended framework when mean has to handle complex modulation in the foreground. ... But, it may be more important that there is a concerted agreement among the members to shift the index mode from +5 or even +6 standard deviations, all the way down to a stones through of neutral ( 0 ) just in general. That is tremendous absolute value correction - and if/when in tandem with a better performing NP-/EPO and PNA rolling up underneath, there's a lot of room for more active pattern guesswork and plausible late season cold deliveries at that. But lets get the super position in time of the +AO correction with it's concomitant relaxation integrated flow together with the early March climo thing, first... It doesn't have to wait that long, either. In fact, the GGEM and Euro were already deflating the flow by D8 or 9 off their 0z depictions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 26 minutes ago, Ogmios said: AO remains in enemy territory so maybe a pattern change but one that is another version of suck for winter fans. Take your AO goggles off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 hours ago, dendrite said: Wet bulbs are pretty low the next 2 days. Tuesday will probably be a net gain here too. I mean, if you start getting open spots in your pack with sun the next 2 days maybe it starts to erode a little quicker, but this isn't exactly a pack decimating pattern...especially for mid Feb. Agree on dews. But I’m leaning slightly warmer vs guidance the next several days. I also think Tuesday, aside from perhaps a negligible frozen start, will be a rain event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: do you mean pattern "mortality"? No ... the pattern's been rapaciously immoral for holding out on winter enthusiasts so long... hahaha... yeah typo ftl 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Agree on dews. But I’m leaning slightly warmer vs guidance the next several days. I also think Tuesday, aside from perhaps a negligible frozen start, will be a rain event here. Like the last one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Like the last one? No. Last one I called for 2-3”, half of GYX’s map issued 2/11, which turned out to be spot on done here. I think we get a trace on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 dennis's impact on a pattern change is nebulous caustation at best. We've had several very deep cyclones in that region, just last week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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