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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But the problem was the lack of QPF. It was cold enough. 

No it wasn’t just a matter of qpf. “Cold enough”. For what? At the end of the day it’s also about ratios and how it accumulates. What fell overnight wasn’t high ratio fluff and what fell 6am on didn’t stack up in SNH. 

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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No it wasn’t just a matter of qpf. “Cold enough”. For what? At the end of the day it’s also about ratios and how it accumulates. What fell overnight wasn’t high ratio fluff and what fell 6am on didn’t stack up in SNH. 

It all fell to the south. 2-3" at the border. Less near MHT and points ENE because the good echoes never got there. It was not mild ground. 

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2 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

i was out on the snowmobile up your way yesterday. Trailered to Depot St then jumped on the rail trail and headed up towards Lebanon. Tons of sled traffic, but the trail was awesome. very convenient spot to trailer to.

If there is still snow by the time NH’s free weekend comes, I want to do that from the Lebanon end. 

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16 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No it wasn’t just a matter of qpf. “Cold enough”. For what? At the end of the day it’s also about ratios and how it accumulates. What fell overnight wasn’t high ratio fluff and what fell 6am on didn’t stack up in SNH. 

It was overrunning. Who was expecting fluff?

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2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

surprised there was enough snow down towards Boscawen.  The trails just near my property by Walker Pond are groomed but it looks like 8 inches or so.  But glad you're riding!  The rail trail is awesome all seasons.

That’s the beauty of using old railroad beds for trails. They don’t need as much snow because they are flat and smooth. No rocks or roots or other variations of the surface that need more snow to cover and fill in. 

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I was trying to think today.  I’m pretty sure , for this area of NE CT.. this is the worst winter(snowfall wise YTD) since a winter in the early 2000’s. Maybe 11-12 is close . Other than that which I’m not sure about.. this has been the worst in close to 20 years. At least from what I can recall. To have 5-6 “ of snow between Dec 20 - Feb 20 is almost impossible to do in the hills . Maybe Metherb has some  data 

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12 minutes ago, Randy4Confluence said:

Cali having a winter to forget also with bone dry Jan/Feb. Unless March is different, you'll be seeing lots of fires on TV again. 

Almost all their snow fell before New Years . They began the year cranking in November/December 

looks like an all time least snowy period from New Years to now . At the 10K summit at mammoth ...13” Freaking inches and NONE this month . That is unheard of 

They did 200” plus in February alone last year 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

162” on the year at Mammoth Summit 

not good

I feel like Sierra resorts either get a ton of snow or far below average snow over the last few years.  Squaw Valley has numbers back to 2013 and it’s such a roller coaster. I’ve skied our there a couple times and I was not complaining either way! 

 

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4 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

I feel like Sierra resorts either get a ton of snow or far below average snow over the last few years.  Squaw Valley has numbers back to 2013 and it’s such a roller coaster. I’ve skied our there a couple times and I was not complaining either way! 

 

Lot of variance 

their famine is our best winter ever 

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59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lift wasn't adequate to get into the DGZ. Was a matter of qpf too. Not an airmass issue 

Not an airmass issue the one time —all season— it fits *your* narrative. Airmass issues are the theme of the season, but you will disregard that now...Tell me how *little* snow SNE received from this event, and then we’ll pretend like SNH snowfall amounts weren’t at all adversely impacted by what happened down there. :rolleyes:

ORH hit 35 F on 2/13 also btw, as did ASH and PSM. :thumbsup:
 

 

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Not an airmass issue the one time —all season— it fits *your* narrative. Airmass issues are the theme of the season, but you will disregard that now...Tell me how *little* snow SNE received from this event, and then we’ll pretend like SNH snowfall amounts weren’t at all adversely impacted by what happened down there. :rolleyes:

ORH hit 35 F on 2/13 also btw, as did ASH and PSM. :thumbsup:
 

 

We had 2-3" just south of the border. That was modeled.  It quickly dwindled to very little past like exit 5 of 93 in NH. That was not modeled. We even had numerous posters saying how bad radar looked. It got to the mid 30s after it ended. Nobody expected a foot, but 4-6" turned into 1-3". 

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We had 2-3" just south of the border. That was modeled.  It quickly dwindled to very little past like exit 5 of 93 in NH. That was not modeled. We even had numerous posters saying how bad radar looked. It got to the mid 30s after it ended. Nobody expected a foot, but 4-6" turned into 1-3". 

4-6” was always a bad bet bc you needed everything to go perfectly for that to verify—temps, lift and qpf. I pointed mostly to the former 2 as to why I was anticipating much less. I don’t care what you guys want to say—implying that less than mod rates with surface temps 32/33 has no impact on accums just doesn’t add up at the stake. A degree or two matters significantly in this case. That’s my point and I’ll stick with it, bc it works. Also I flipped to sleet around 7 a.m. I lost ~0.1” LE to mix and rain, and what fell before sunrise couldn’t offset what would be lost after 6am,  bc the ratios sucked. Period. End of story.

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

4-6” was always a bad bet bc you needed everything to go perfectly for that to verify—temps, lift and qpf. I pointed mostly to the former 2 as to why I was anticipating much less. I don’t care what you guys want to say—implying that less than mod rates with surface temps 32/33 has no impact on accums just doesn’t add up at the stake. A degree or two matters significantly in this case. That’s my point and I’ll stick with it, bc it works. Also I flipped to sleet around 7 a.m. I lost ~0.1” LE to mix and rain, and what fell before sunrise couldn’t offset what would be lost after 6am,  bc the ratios sucked. Period. End of story.

What time approximately did you start drinking today? Rough estimate ...

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Just now, jbenedet said:

4-6” was always a bad bet bc you needed everything to go perfectly for that to verify—temps, lift and qpf. I pointed mostly to the former 2 as to why I was anticipating much less. I don’t care what you guys want to say, but denying that less than mod rates with temps 32/33 just doesn’t add up at the stake. A degree or two matters significantly in this case. That’s my point and I’ll stick with it, bc it works. Also I flipped to sleet around 7 a.m. I lost ~0.1” LE to mix and rain, and what fell before sunrise couldn’t offset what would be lost after 6am,  bc the ratios sucked. Period. End of story.

Not sure you looked at radar, but it was shredded by 5-6am. Temps near and below 32. And yet those borderline areas still had 3". It had nothing to do with ratios etc. Nobody expected fluff. But a prolonged event of 0.3"to 0.5" QPF was expected before a flip. The main action stayed closer to the LLJ near the south coast which does happen. Temps were not the issue. Hell I wetbulbed to near 32F from being 38F on the coast south of Boston with snow and sleet. If temps and lift were the issue, we wouldn't have had more snow to the south of the areas progged to get several inches. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure you looked at radar, but it was shredded by 5-6am. Temps near and below 32. And yet those borderline areas still had 3". It had nothing to do with ratios etc. Nobody expected fluff. But a prolonged event of 0.3"to 0.5" QPF was expected before a flip. The main action stayed closer to the LLJ near the south coast which does happen. Temps were not the issue. Hell I wetbulbed to near 32F from being 38F on the coast south of Boston with snow and sleet. If temps and lift were the issue, we wouldn't have had more snow to the south of the areas progged to get several inches. 

BS. And BS.

We can agree to disagree. I don’t care. Pretty incredible the airmass had no bearing on snow accums. What was that the first time this season? 

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