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February Banter 2020

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1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

50% would be a dream. I’m thinking our chances of winning it all is more like 10%. 

From what I’ve seen, Maryland has as good of a chance as anyone.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think/hope some of the guidance bashing is just frustration.  IMO the guidance has been magnificent this year.  The NWP guidance nailed the overall winter patter from months in advance while some of the analog and SST based guidance failed miserably.  Furthermore, for the most part 99% of the time the guidance has been showing us a total fail crap pattern, and that is what we have had.  Any "hope" was only when we were trying hard and buying into an odd run or two that usually didn't have much ensemble support...or buying into some crazy long range day 15 fantasy that was only there for a run or two.  From day 10 on in the models have pretty much shown the crap we have had all winter long.  And even the rare fluke "threats" we tried to invent out of this awful pattern never made it inside day 5.  With all the possible permutations there will always be the odd run or two of operations or minority clusters of ensembles that show a "threat" in the long range...but truth is there was NEVER majority support from both a longwave pattern AND individual guidance runs to say a snow was likely.  

I suppose if all anyone did was glance at the day 15 GEFS they might think guidance was not so good...but even the GEFS never looked great...and we KNOW the GEFS (as well as the nwe op FV3 GFS) has an extreme cold bias.  So taking the day 15 GEFS at face value is user error not guidance error.  That is like knowing your car alignment is a little off to the right and refusing to correct and complaining when every 100 yards you run off the road.  Yea the tool was not perfect...but you still are more to blame.  

 

Funny. My car alignment actually IS a little off to the right. :ph34r:

...

I'm sure most people do have a slight alignment issue with there car though. So probably not to big of a coincidence to have it mentioned.

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14 hours ago, snownut said:

Sorry such a crappy year there in the MA, painful reading the threads.  I still have lots family and friends there who are sad for such a low snow winter. 

Lower than normal snow pack here in Central Oregon for this time of year. The consistent storm tracks have been into Washington and northeastern Oregon. 

Of course, a bad snow year in the Cascades is better than a great snow year in many places. 

Different perspective living in a big snow pack area than my memories of Virginia.  I'm totally happy now if it doesn't snow at my house. It makes walking the dogs, life and work easier and there is always snow nearby.   

I remember many winter drives to Canaan Valley to get into the snow and they are even having a crappy season. 

February has been dry and sunny here but the skiing is great for now. 

Photo from this afternoon with 10,300 foot South Sister in the distance.

 

 

 

Bachelor 2-17-20.jpg

Here just SE of Denver, we're up to about 57" of snow on the year. Right on track.  The central CO mountains have gotten hit pretty hard.

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Despite this being a dreadful winter, one of the worst actually, I took a trip to Vermont over the weekend and experienced the coldest temperature of my life on Saturday morning (-16 degrees). Let me just say whoa, I didn't know the true meaning of cold. Stick your hand out the window of a moving care and its like having liquid nitrogen poured on it. Numb within 3 seconds.

PLus there was a good foot of snow on the ground.

It was nice. A place where real winter happens. Not this Florida climate we live in.  I can't wait to move there!

 

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1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

Here just SE of Denver, we're up to about 57" of snow on the year. Right on track.  The central CO mountains have gotten hit pretty hard.

Colorado is awesome! 

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

From what I’ve seen, Maryland has as good of a chance as anyone.

I hope you're right. 

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5 hours ago, mappy said:

bless the few of you still tracking this nightmare of a winter. 

No more for me.  I joined the panic room.  I want off this ride.  Can't believe I've lived through another winter worse than 97-98.  Good riddance

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9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No more for me.  I joined the panic room.  I want off this ride.  Can't believe I've lived through another winter worse than 97-98.  Good riddance

When was the last time you got off a ride until it came to a full and complete stop?. 

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2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Despite this being a dreadful winter, one of the worst actually, I took a trip to Vermont over the weekend and experienced the coldest temperature of my life on Saturday morning (-16 degrees). Let me just say whoa, I didn't know the true meaning of cold. Stick your hand out the window of a moving care and its like having liquid nitrogen poured on it. Numb within 3 seconds.

PLus there was a good foot of snow on the ground.

It was nice. A place where real winter happens. Not this Florida climate we live in.  I can't wait to move there!

 

I experienced similar in killington back in 94, when it was also cold here. Absolutely absurd cold on the mountaintop...way into the negatives and an even more obscene wind chill. Ironically, warmed up the next day and snowed. I definitely had some early frostbite symptoms on my hands but smartly only skied a couple runs.

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Re: the unfortunate bleating at "how bad the models have been this winter" ---not only have the long range models been pretty damn good at showing how bad our chances have been - for proof I direct people to the digital snow thread, which has been as under-utilized as I can recall since we started separating the fantasy clown maps into their own area. There really hasn't even been good digital snow this year.

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13 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Re: the unfortunate bleating at "how bad the models have been this winter" ---not only have the long range models been pretty damn good at showing how bad our chances have been - for proof I direct people to the digital snow thread, which has been an under-utilized as I can recall since we started separating the fantasy clown maps into their own area. There really hasn't even been good digital snow this year.

agreed.  there really hasn't been much digital snow at all.  some of the downplaying of the models are due to storms 7+ days out.  unless we're talking a large scale pattern change and/or large storm, it's going to be difficult for models to hone in on that type of chaos at that range.  it's impressive enough that we can model storms 3-5 days out with pretty good accuracy already, certainly more accurate than analyzing the sky and drawing medium range forecasts...good luck with that lol.

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14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Re: the unfortunate bleating at "how bad the models have been this winter" ---not only have the long range models been pretty damn good at showing how bad our chances have been - for proof I direct people to the digital snow thread, which has been an under-utilized as I can recall since we started separating the fantasy clown maps into their own area. There really hasn't even been good digital snow this year.

Remember the old DGEX ( extension of the 84 hr nam ) ...dam that never disappointed as far as digital snow lol

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@Chris78 @nj2va

https://www.nhl.com/capitals/news/capitals-acquire-brenden-dillon-from-san-jose-sharks/c-315220714

The Washington Capitals have acquired defenseman Brenden Dillon from the San Jose Sharks for a 2020 second round pick (originally acquired from Colorado) and a conditional 2021 third round pick, senior vice president and general manager Brian MacLellan announced today. In addition, San Jose has agreed to retain 50 percent of Dillon's salary and cap hit ($1.635 million cap hit retained).

"Brenden is an experienced defenseman who plays a solid defensive game with a high compete level and physicality," said MacLellan. "We felt it was important for us to add a player of his caliber to our defensive group."

Dillon, 29, a native of New Westminster, B.C., recorded 14 points (1g, 13a) in 59 games with the Sharks, nearly on pace for his third consecutive season with at least 20 points. The 6'4", 225-pound defenseman's 51.70 shot attempt percentage (899 shot attempts for, 840 against) ranked second among San Jose defensemen at five-on-five. Dillon's 2:02 minutes per game on the penalty kill ranked third among San Jose defensemen. Additionally, Dillon was on the ice for 40 goals at five-on-five, the third most on the Sharks this season. Dillon led the Sharks in hits (178) - the ninth most in the NHL - and ranked fourth in blocked shots (67). His 19:22 TOI per game ranked fifth on San Jose and marks his highest TOI per game since the 2014-15 season (19:34).

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Remember the old DGEX ( extension of the 84 hr nam ) ...dam that never disappointed as far as digital snow lol

I remember the one time it was throwing 48+ inches out for many. That was a, 'Please God let this happen'. :lol:

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1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

There is someone named "dorkchopper" in my friendly SE forum. It could be Mersky, me thinks. ( or 53). 

I doubt 53 would run a fake name. He is up front with his stuff. I can respect that. He only changed back from Tenman with permission. 

Mersky on the other hand I am 99% sure is a past member with some axe to grind. 

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8 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

From what I’ve seen, Maryland has as good of a chance as anyone.

I tend to agree with one issue... they aren't deep at guard and shooting forward. Take Cowan and Smith out of the game and they can lose first round. Especially Smith because he's the complete package. Last I looked I felt KU and Duke had the most talent and depth. Odds are the terps have to beat at least one of those to get to the final and that's off the top of my head. Majority of the top 10 teams are as good or better. 

I'd absolutely love and absolutely dread a UMD Duke matchup. Haha

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9 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Zwift looks pretty cool, but I'm not willing to buy the equipment necessary to have the resistance linked.  I've thought about it, but I can't justify the expense because I hate riding inside.

I hated riding inside until I started Zwift.  It's nothing like riding outside, but it's engaging enough to keep it interesting, and it really helps me keep my legs during the winter.  It's definitely an investment to get the equipment, but I've seen some setups coming down to the $300 range.

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I tend to agree with one issue... they aren't deep at guard and shooting forward. Take Cowan and Smith out of the game and they can lose first round. Especially Smith because he's the complete package. Last I looked I felt KU and Duke had the most talent and depth. Odds are the terps have to beat at least one of those to get to the final and that's off the top of my head. Majority of the top 10 teams are as good or better. 

I'd absolutely love and absolutely dread a UMD Duke matchup. Haha

Once the twins decided to transfer back in December there front court  depth was gone. 

I believe there top 6 can compete against anyone in the country. After that its a huge drop off.

They need Smith and Cowan to both play 38 minutes a game.

 

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13 minutes ago, The Dude said:

I hated riding inside until I started Zwift.  It's nothing like riding outside, but it's engaging enough to keep it interesting, and it really helps me keep my legs during the winter.  It's definitely an investment to get the equipment, but I've seen some setups coming down to the $300 range.

Spring is right around the corner so I’ll suck it up and ride with just music for the next month or so, but if I ride enough this summer, maybe I’ll look into it for next winter.  Maybe it’ll be a good incentive.

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On 2/17/2020 at 12:16 PM, psuhoffman said:

This is perspective and not right/wrong. I don’t consider 40s that cold.  Of course I was just skiing with a temperature of -10 and honestly that didn’t feel that bad when the sun was out so I might be a bit if a freak. I’ll admit that.  

But my bigger point was even the marginally “chilly” periods you can get in April are not going to last. 2018 had 2 cold shots but both were in and out in 3 days with 60s-70s bookending both 3 day periods. 

2007 had one true cold snap (about as cold as it can get in April) but it was only 5 days and bookended with 50s/60s. 

So even in a worst case scenario coldest April possible we will still end up with more 60+ days than below 50 days and it won’t even be close. Cold just can’t hold that late. So yes we could suffer a 3-5 day “chilly” period if we get a monster -NAO but a few days in the 40s in a month dominated by 60s overall is not going to really bother me at all. But that’s just me. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion on this. 

Rainy days are the exception btw. A rainy day can be miserable in April but does it really matter if it’s 48 and raining or 58 and raining?  Either way I’m not spending much time outside. But again that’s just my opinion. 

I agree this is probably all subjective. Climo IMBY in April is 60’s and the period from April to early June is our best shot at what I consider “nice” weather, so I don’t like it when we lose part of that to 40’s and lingering cold (I’d be especially pissed if it happened after this awful winter too).

Admittedly I’m not a cold lover so yeah, I consider 40’s cold... I don’t ski, but I can’t imagine myself skiing in -10 temperatures. :lol:

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Once the twins decided to transfer back in December there front court  depth was gone. 

I believe there top 6 can compete against anyone in the country. After that its a huge drop off.

They need Smith and Cowan to both play 38 minutes a game.

 

And they definitely will unless the team is coasting a huge lead in the second half. Which rarely happens in the tourney...

Turgeon has done an amazing job this year. Conf road wins have been brilliant. Especially the MSU game. I'm still not sure what I saw in the final mins. 

Winning it all is part luck and not just a little either. March madness is the greatest sports playoff structure in the world. There is nothing like it imho

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