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George BM

February Discobs 2020

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8 hours ago, mappy said:

I know, that’s why I tagged you. I’ve skimmed your posts but seeing WBAL mention it, made me think to ask you for more details. Thank you! 

Latest Cobb output has Westminster above freezing tomorrow early morning.  Both Nam and Gfs sneak us below freezing by 18z . So Tomorrow morning probably not a problem.  Looks like the zrain threat increases late Wed for our area . 

Edit....I think the bolded is probably too cold for Tomorrow early afternoon.  The Euro laughs at any chance of zrain but it does run warm at surface sometimes imo but a blend keeps us above freezing until late evening Wednesday.  If Euro is correct ...we stay above freezing thru duration. 

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25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest Cobb output has Westminster above freezing tomorrow early morning.  Both Nam and Gfs sneak us below freezing by 18z . So Tomorrow morning probably not a problem.  Looks like the zrain threat increases late Wed for our area . 

Thanks friend!

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After yesterday's record high at MRB, today's high fell 2° short of another record.  Should still break the record for the highest minimum for the date.  Previous record warm low was 41 from 1952.  So far, the low for today is 59!   Forecast is for 46 by midnight.

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10:1 NAM maps have some "accumulation" for some of the metro area Wednesday evening.     That's because the model microphysics have a mix of rain and sleet - definitely supported by the soundings which have a decent layer below freezing above temps around 34 at the sfc.     Definitely could see some pingers around during those initial hours of rain early Wednesday evening before the column warms.

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@mappy

Nam Cobb output shows us ticking below freezing tonight between 02z and 04z so any zrain really looks short lived .

Gfs Cobb never goes below freezing.

Euro also above freezing for duration. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

@mappy

Nam Cobb output shows us ticking below freezing tonight between 02z and 04z so any zrain really looks short lived .

Gfs Cobb never goes below freezing.

Euro also above freezing for duration. 

thanks! i checked briefly this AM. Saw State College put a good chunk of counties under advisories... so close, yet so far away. 

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00z Euro gets the low through Pittsburgh around 989mb...with +20 temp anomaly at 850 [thanks to a jet of nearly 65 kts].  It also significantly backed off on the rainfall (shocker) only about 2" regionwide.  

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28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

00z Euro gets the low through Pittsburgh around 989mb...with +20 temp anomaly at 850 [thanks to a jet of nearly 65 kts].  It also significantly backed off on the rainfall (shocker) only about 2" regionwide.  

Jeez. We can’t even get a real soaker! What a pathetic spring this has been. :lol:

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32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

00z Euro gets the low through Pittsburgh around 989mb...with +20 temp anomaly at 850 [thanks to a jet of nearly 65 kts].  It also significantly backed off on the rainfall (shocker) only about 2" regionwide.  

Now that I given up on this abysmal winter I've turned to spring. Sucks we can't even get any interesting spring weather. Anything but 50 and sunny.

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Only weather we got. Looks like 2-3" for my yard. Stoked!

Same here. Better then 55 and sunny forever. 

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5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Only weather we got. Looks like 2-3" for my yard. Stoked!

Rare to get amounts like that up here in mid winter unless it's a cutoff low . I'm thinking 1 inch ..maybe 1.5 " tops here . Haven't looked at guidance today much.  Too busy making coin :D. I did see the FFW but that's i95 southeast.  I hope u get crushed. 

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42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Rare to get amounts like that up here in mid winter unless it's a cutoff low . I'm thinking 1 inch ..maybe 1.5 " tops here . Haven't looked at guidance today much.  Too busy making coin :D. I did see the FFW but that's i95 southeast.  I hope u get crushed. 

Right on Cue nam Is much dryer here with less then an inch . The temp gradient is pretty impressive though with near 70 degrees tomorrow afternoon 40 miles south of DC and 30s here . Pretty dynamic system coming . I enjoy tracking this stuff . Beats the heck out of tracking partly cloudy and 55.

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42 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Not much wet yet...SE looks ripe I'm hoping I can get a partly cloudy if it keeps sliding south and east

If this were a snowstorm this would crash the board.  Expecting over 18" of snow to realize the day before you'll be lucky to verify a warning level event.

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Temp has been stuck at 38 here since yesterday afternoon.

Looks like the heaviest rain will be farther south per latest guidance. Not surprising given the temp gradient/battleground is further south. .Strong upper jet and best lift looks to be just SE of the region. 

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