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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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Here is 2015. At 50mb, it's more near and just north of Siberia...not so much in Canada or over Hudson Bay. However, as Tombo noted a few days ago, you can see a big ridge in AK and the elongation favorable for cold air delivery. You don't have to have the strat PV sitting in Canada. That 50mb look would be fine. 

Also note I am no expert...just sort of going by what makes sense to me. 

 

 

 

Composite Plot

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is 2015. At 50mb, it's more near and just north of Siberia...not so much in Canada or over Hudson Bay. However, as Tombo noted a few days ago, you can see a big ridge in AK and the elongation favorable for cold air delivery. You don't have to have the strat PV sitting in Canada. That 50mb look would be fine. 

Also note I am no expert...just sort of going by what makes sense to me. 

 

 

 

Composite Plot

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placement of the warmest temperatures anomalies I think worked in our favor significantly as well:

 

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also the core of the westerlies surrounding the SPV were displaced towards the other side of the hemisphere 

Composite Plot

 

But I think I am a little confused about something...this event in 2015 (since i don't remember off the top of my head is that referring to a strong PV or weakened PV? Based on what you posted and what i did I would assume the PV is pretty strong here (2015)...which is a good thing that it is displaced towards the other side of the globe. A strong PV displaced south into Canada would result in strong westerlies over the U.S. 

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36 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I would watch the February 5th timeframe for a big anafrontal snow event!

LOL...ya cuz that's so obvious.  Did you just pull that out of your Arse or what???   

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

LOL...ya cuz that's so obvious.  Did you just pull that out of your Arse or what???   

We should also watch the June - September timeframe for a potential cold front that could spark t'storms 

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45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think looking at the H5 pattern is a better way to understand vs text values. 

I took a peak at the GEFS 12z and I do like seeing troughing on the east coast, but the AK vortex is not budging and it looks as though the ridge over Hawaii returns. GEPS 0z was much better but I trust GEFS more and it's been the default pattern recently it seams (the Hawaii ridge especially)

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34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We should also watch the June - September timeframe for a potential cold front that could spark t'storms 

LMAO...yes exactly.  

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38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I took a peak at the GEFS 12z and I do like seeing troughing on the east coast, but the AK vortex is not budging and it looks as though the ridge over Hawaii returns. GEPS 0z was much better but I trust GEFS more and it's been the default pattern recently it seams (the Hawaii ridge especially)

Noticed that too.  that pig can rule the roost, but we shall see.  I suspect a transient, less amplified trough if anything.  

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Just now, Bostonseminole said:

euro gonna be fun

There was a time where this would get me excited. Now as Kev says we toss all models. 
 

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

There was a time where this would get me excited. Now as Kev says we toss all models. 
 

I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range.

We would wait until the Euro was inside 96 hrs then lock it in.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range.

i'm not excited, but interested.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range.

Then the stupid snow maps came along. 

There are people who will post total snowfall through 384-HR TO ILLUSTRATE WHAT TYPE OF PATTERN MAY BE....WTF????????

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range.

*interested. may be a better word. But then jan 2015 happened lol.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Snowy wet?

mabye. ., but the track is pretty close to the south coast of CT/RI so likely some issues with that track down south. on the other hand decent H5 track, would love to see that a little further south.  I think we are almost ready to lock a solution.. lol jk.

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