nrgjeff Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Due to veered winds the play is right on the boundary, which as of this writing is between DC and BWI. I make no promises on terrain, lol! Remarkable that the boundary is un-contaminated and no other junk is forecast until the main event. 700 mb Ts near just right. That is rare in the Mid-Atlantic, and quite notable. Left front/exit of jet max will pass early; however, right rear/entrance will arrive peak heating. Also a 700 mb vort max. It is already clear on water vapor back in Kentucky. LLJ responds at the right time BWI area too. If I'm a chaser there, @Ian this is a Go! Discrete sups are progged. SRH will be there on the boundary. Unseasonably high Tds have promoted over-achievement the past few days here in the Tenn Valley. Should continue there. IIRC outside BWI is a little better chasing than around DC; but, it's been a long time since I've been to BWI. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 46 minutes ago, Stormpc said: DP at my house in Currituck North Carolina is 82. It's awful. Hopefully you guys fare well today and don't get any real heavy storm damage. Was down there last week and beginning of this week. Weather was gorgeous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 14z HRRR is truly awful for DC NE MD and Eastern Shore pummeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 14z HRRR is truly awful for DC NE MD and Eastern Shore pummeled Verbatim: sprinkles for DC. Will be fun to watch radar later today. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 14z HRRR is truly awful for DC NE MD and Eastern Shore pummeled and it was great for 13z. it'll change again at 15z. i think we need to get rid of these debris clouds, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 26 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Verbatim: sprinkles for DC. Will be fun to watch radar later today. . #eventcancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Finally some real clearing, even up to HGR. Wind shifted to WSW in Gaithersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juliacarolecat Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Any predictions for the 1230 spc update? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 Maybe drop the 10 percent and keep everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 Watch SPC go moderate hatching just to F with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 15z HRRR is hot garbage for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: 15z HRRR is hot garbage for everyone fixed that for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 SPC keeps D1 ENH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juliacarolecat Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Kept 10% tornado too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 Not enough info to change the outlook I suppose. Steady we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 From the 1630z SPC: OTHERWISE, STORM-SCALE CLUSTERING AND THE DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY YIELD A COUPLE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH 45-65 KT GUSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND SWATHS TO THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 SPC actually expanded ENH up into PA. 10% tor, 30% wind up to MDT/RDG and back west to HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Ugh it's hot and humid out... we better get some storms this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Latest spc mesoanalysis puts a decent bit of helicity south of I70. The afternoon meso disco is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Latest spc mesoanalysis puts a decent bit of helicity south of I70. The afternoon meso disco is going to be interesting. Are you bullish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: Are you bullish? I'm only interested in Carroll County today. I'm at my firehouse this evening so I'd like to run a couple calls. I doubt this turns into anything though. We're really fighting the clouds today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Ugh it's hot and humid out... we better get some storms this afternoon It would be nice to get at least a decent storm. Would help me justify the stabbing eye ball pain I had all day yesterday from pressure in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm only interested in Carroll County today. I'm at my firehouse this evening so I'd like to run a couple calls. I doubt this turns into anything though. We're really fighting the clouds today. Visible satellite looks decent once you're south and east of Frederick County it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm only interested in Carroll County today. I'm at my firehouse this evening so I'd like to run a couple calls. I doubt this turns into anything though. We're really fighting the clouds today. Down here in Takoma park it’s full sunshine for a while now. Little breeze kicking up which is nice. Feels like a severe day at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 HRDPS is discrete until the 95 corridor and then linear. Looks great. HRRR still is eh until you get east of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: HRDPS is discrete until the 95 corridor and then linear. Looks great. HRRR still is eh until you get east of the metro Yea this is looking more and more like a Delmarva and S MD threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea this is looking more and more like a Delmarva and S MD threat. I will be more than obliged to steal your severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea this is looking more and more like a Delmarva and S MD threat. I know the HRDPS is a JV model but it definitely would imply a tor threat for Carroll for you. Even the rest of Central MD and then a linear wind threat from there to the bay and then east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 So only an orange day today. I love how accurate that system really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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