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Thundersnow12

January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential

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27 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

6z EPS looks pretty favourable for Toronto. It has 60-70% probability of >3".

EO417ghXUAAI91s.thumb.png.a3ae6dd9ffb8382be67a817c556d5712.png

Too bad the costal low doesn't wrap up inland...could has shifted those richer reds further west.  The bane of the Toronto snow lover is the Appalachians and that permanent costal thermal gradient that deepening lows are drawn to like bees towards honey.

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49 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Experiencing what we have so far this winter, I'm not sure why anyone wouldn't put their chips on the most pessimistic outcome.  

If the GFS is the most pessimistic outcome, I am comfortable hedging away from that. The only thing worse than this winter has been the GFS' performance. 

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2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

If the GFS is the most pessimistic outcome, I am comfortable hedging away from that. The only thing worse than this winter has been the GFS' performance. 

It got the stung out garbage storm a couple weeks back but it's been meh besides that.

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GFS is already failing horribly in the Plains with precip-type.

Not surprising.


.

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MKX

LONG TERM...

Thursday Night through Saturday...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Models have started to trend toward a stronger deepening low that
lifts NE Friday into Saturday. Previous guidance was flatter with
the progression and kept some of the precip bottled up further
south. This change would favor more precip wrapping into
southeastern Wisconsin as the low pushes east. Now with that
said, there are still some questions as to whether models have a
good handle on the system. The initial low digs into MO/AR
Thursday night into Friday and transitions into a closed low over
the TN/OH Valleys. Then a second piece of energy digs south and
this is what could cause the system to deepen as the two features
phase over the OH Valley. The past few systems that have impacted
the area have had a similar trend where 2-4 days (where we are
currently) out models had more significant phasing and stronger
lows which bumped up QPF totals. Then as you got closer in the 1-2
day period they backed off and QPF amounts trended back down.
This has largely been the result of models inability to handle the
phasing of closed lows. Will be keeping a close on eye on how
guidance handles these features over the next few model cycles.
Subtle adjustments to QPF were made with this forecast and these
changes keep us below the 50th percentile for both QPF and Snow
amounts. This is likely a good place to be based on the lingering
uncertainty. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance are narrowing in
on some of those higher QPF and snow amounts. So, if models hold
onto this trend will likely continue to nudge amounts upwards.

Another complicating factor is that with the low deepening warmer
air gets wrapped in and temps Friday through Saturday could be
such that we end up with more of a mix of rain/snow than all snow.
The profile aloft is cold enough for all snow but there could be a
deep enough layer near the surface to melt some of the snow. Do
think models could have a slight warm bias to temps and have
nudged values down slightly but this would still support a
rain/snow mix.

The system exits to the east Friday night into Saturday with light
snow ending by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures through the period
hold pretty steady around freezing for lows and into the mid 30s
for highs.

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19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

ride it

255710-screenshots-20191119185511-1.jpg

255710-screenshots-20191119185511-1.jpg

Married to the sref plumes and cousin to the NAM. Cut off timewise a bit early to 2nd wave

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

If the GFS is the most pessimistic outcome, I am comfortable hedging away from that. The only thing worse than this winter has been the GFS' performance. 

Actually the gfs schooled the euro on one of our systems. All the models have been horrible.

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Snow depth this morning was 5".  Will be interesting to see how much it will actually change over the next few days

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31 minutes ago, madwx said:

Snow depth this morning was 5".  Will be interesting to see how much it will actually change over the next few days

This ain't the winter for snow cover. 

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12z CMC goes from rain to wet snow for the GTA. 3-5" of wet snow to be precise. As the initial low wraps around just south of us, the warmer air creeps its way into the GTA. Once the coastal begins developing, we'll see how fast the thermals cool thereafter. 

Edit: Not overly optimistic right now. It's a pretty complex set-up and timing is everything. 

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The weekend system is confusing for a few reasons:
1) Very slow movement of the upper low 
2) Highly variable precipitation rates + banding 
3) Marginal thermals, causing snowfall accumulations to be dependant on precip rates. Areas with stronger upward motion may win out.

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Trend toward a stronger system,  especially on the NAM, is not helping around Chicagoland because it helps to wrap in warmer air.  Granted we are talking about the difference between like 1005 mb and 1010 mb, but it could end up mattering.  

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Trend toward a stronger system,  especially on the NAM, is not helping around Chicagoland because it helps to wrap in warmer air.  Granted we are talking about the difference between like 1005 mb and 1010 mb, but it could end up mattering.  

glad you're coming around

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10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro following consensus of a DAB+ followed by a rainer

 

255710-screenshots-20191119185511-1.jpg

 

The Euro has your back yard at 6+.... 

Granted its 10:1, but thats much better than a DAB... 

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