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Thundersnow12

January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential

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I have no idea on this one, it could be everything. I am going to bet more of the same where it is literally everything.

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48 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I have no idea on this one, it could be everything. I am going to bet more of the same where it is literally everything.

To call this winter warm is an understatement. All (3) of the plow-worthy events here have been on days when the temp at some point was ABOVE freezing. Since I live in the city with a modest property, I choose to move my snow by hand as a form of seasonal exercise. Today's messy mixer was the heaviest snow I can remember putting a shovel to, and I'm no youngster. More of the same? Not sure I'm a fan of that, lol

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This would be a Grinch storm for a lot of us on the 0z GFS.  Interesting to see if this is one where existing snowpack/baroclinic zone created by this snowpack is a factor.  Not sure it will be, but would be the main candidate for this theory so far this winter.

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Quote

IT DOES   APPEAR HOWEVER THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE   SOME SORT OF MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXISTS DURING THE   LATE WEEK PERIOD.  

- LOT
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Im thinking this seasons winter weather is sponsored by Portland Cement. I'm ready to engage in the next round of transitions ...  

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27 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I'm going with an early Feb '98 analog storm.  Weird cut off with a pocket of cold air where it does something stupid like snow in Memphis and rain in Indy.   

Yeah, the Euro shows it heading due east with the surface low in southern IL transferring to VA. I would imagine that the east coast weenies ears perked up.

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20 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Rainer. I learn from the best.

 

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Rainer 

 

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The last system was relatively easy to make a general long range call on.  This one is a more convoluted setup with marginal boundary layer conditions.  I do think a band of sig snow is possible somewhere.  As for here, it appears that rain, snow, and possibly even a little ice could all occur during the period.

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9 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Very bizarre evolution on the euro

We might set some record for hours spent in the low-mid 30s.

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Kind of a significant difference in thermal profiles between the NAM and GFS at 84 hrs, especially south of I-80 back toward the western Midwest.  Both have precipitation in the same area so can't say it's because one model has precip and the other doesn't.

gfs_T850_us_15.thumb.png.3e11f8a3a04129fc6bddbb08961ae00c.png

namconus_T850_us_53.thumb.png.d1960fce2826826604d9dbaf71c335ca.png

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