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Thundersnow12

January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential

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GFS ensembles (albeit from 12z) anticipating an average precipitation rate of 0.005"/hour from 03z 1/22 to 12z 1/25, impressive

KOMA_2020012012.png

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First and final call: 36 hours of a light rain/snow mix in South Bend...if we're lucky. Exciting. 

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Some nice hits in there.  Just have to factor in a melting/compaction element which means that depths probably won't be as high as what falls.

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Mentioned earlier about the limited diurnal temp swings.  The 18z GFS is downright preposterous in that regard.  Verbatim on the 2m temp plots, it has ORD between 30-35 degrees for 162 consecutive hours during/after the storm.  That seems almost impossible to keep temps in that tight of a range for that long. 

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Some nice hits in there.  Just have to factor in a melting/compaction element which means that depths probably won't be as high as what falls.
I find it interesting that the GEFS has consistently been hitting this harder than the operational GFS. Perhaps different physics packages helps explain, but also, in an inherently complex and odd setup like this, the higher vertical resolution of the op vs the ensembles might be of detriment. The lower vertical resolution of the ensemble can help smooth out features as opposed to what at times can be garbage in garbage out with the operational models. We haven't really seen this behavior with the ECMWF suite for this potential event but it can be an issue at times. My inclination now would be to lean toward the GEFS and ECMWF suite since those have been more consistent. Outer ranges of NAM have pointed more toward the latter.

As things stand right now, this doesn't look like an exciting event (aside from a interesting analog mentioned in previous posts), but with such a long duration, could add up to respectable totals on colder surfaces if things break right. In a mild hemispheric pattern, I'd take that as a win. Since I like to think of local events that may have some similarities, off the top of my head came up with January 14-15, 2018. That was a long duration 3-6" snow due to a slow moving ULL, though it was much colder aloft. Parts of DeKalb, Kane, and DuPage had a jackpot zone of 6-7". https://www.weather.gov/lot/2018Jan15_snowfall

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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38 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Mentioned earlier about the limited diurnal temp swings.  The 18z GFS is downright preposterous in that regard.  Verbatim on the 2m temp plots, it has ORD between 30-35 degrees for 162 consecutive hours during/after the storm.  That seems almost impossible to keep temps in that tight of a range for that long. 

Feel like that happens in late summer when we stay 65-70 

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44 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I find it interesting that the GEFS has consistently been hitting this harder than the operational GFS. Perhaps different physics packages helps explain, but also, in an inherently complex and odd setup like this, the higher vertical resolution of the op vs the ensembles might be of detriment. The lower vertical resolution of the ensemble can help smooth out features as opposed to what at times can be garbage in garbage out with the operational models. We haven't really seen this behavior with the ECMWF suite for this potential event but it can be an issue at times. My inclination now would be to lean toward the GEFS and ECMWF suite since those have been more consistent. Outer ranges of NAM have pointed more toward the latter.

As things stand right now, this doesn't look like an exciting event (aside from a interesting analog mentioned in previous posts), but with such a long duration, could add up to respectable totals on colder surfaces if things break right. In a mild hemispheric pattern, I'd take that as a win. Since I like to think of local events that may have some similarities, off the top of my head came up with January 14-15, 2018. That was a long duration 3-6" snow due to a slow moving ULL, though it was much colder aloft. Parts of DeKalb, Kane, and DuPage had a jackpot zone of 6-7". https://www.weather.gov/lot/2018Jan15_snowfall

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I remember that storm and almost was dead center of the bullseye in Kane County. I was working from home that day and the snow just kept coming. 

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37 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Quintessential thread the needle event.  Want to be right over/100 miles NW of H5 low track, wherever that ends up being.


Reading the NE subforum, this upcoming event has similarities to the December 10-11, 1992 storm. That storm gave Toronto around 12” of heavy wet snow (more fell points east). Temperatures throughout the storm hovered around 32-33F.

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1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Extrapolate the NAM and it’d  likely be a nice long duration hit for most of N IL

Yea I'm loving the nam. Keeps the profiles colder. Would like to see support from other models though. GFS and Euro are warmer with more mixed precipitation versus snow

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8 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Extrapolate the NAM and it’d  likely be a nice long duration hit for most of N IL

Alek rainer tho

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.thumb.png.c55fa8cef448de433e543628f075efa6.png

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6 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

The guy can’t get a call wrong if he tried 

The COD precip type map has snow in Chicago.  Kinda odd.  Forecast soundings have a layer just off the surface around 0C so maybe that is screwing with the precip type. 

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The gfs not run:lightning:

Crawl out of bed to relieve myself and thought why wouldn't I check the forum real quick also.  Hopefully the Euro brings out a little chatter.

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9 hours ago, Toronto4 said:


Reading the NE subforum, this upcoming event has similarities to the December 10-11, 1992 storm. That storm gave Toronto around 12” of heavy wet snow (more fell points east). Temperatures throughout the storm hovered around 32-33F.

0.1%

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13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

looking exciting

 

Capture.png

Ah yes the 6z NAM at 81 hours, the epitome of accuracy. You’re losing your trolling touch 

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1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

0.1%

It would take a miracle for that scenario to happen. So many moving parts and everything would have to line up perfectly. Best case scenario would a modest event of 2-4” of wet snow.

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4 minutes ago, Toronto4 said:

It would take a miracle for that scenario to happen. So many moving parts and everything would have to line up perfectly. Best case scenario would a modest event of 2-4” of wet snow.

Well, best case scenario might be that December 1992 event, but it's tremendously unlikely.  2-4" of plaster more likely than that, but still improbable.  EURO is almost a whiff to the south even though it's an outlier.

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43 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Ah yes the 6z NAM at 81 hours, the epitome of accuracy. You’re losing your trolling touch 

i work with what i'm given

 

 

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Nashville native here. Considering a chase to Springfield Friday. For some of you, I get why this is laughable...but where we are, there’s a pretty good chance we get shut out snow-wise this winter. I’m a winter fanatic so I don’t mind the driving if it leads to something. 2-4” for where I’m from is a big deal. Would help to get local input/insight. Who knows...this threat may evaporate in 24-36 making this post a moot point. 

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