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Thundersnow12

January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The sheer duration of this thing almost ensures a 3-6"/4-8" type area.  Long duration events are better when the thermal profiles aren't marginal though. 

I just feel like there's no scenario that gives Columbus snow. We either lack moisture because of energy transfer or the uppers are way too warm

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Weird having both the NAM & Euro showing good snows, not sure what kind of omen that is but it seems kind of tough to see this thing dropping 6” with how ragged & low-amp the event looks to be 

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13 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I don't even want a wsw criteria event. Just let it look and feel like winter!

Forget the wsw and consider yourself lucky if there's an advisory with how prolonged this is.

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1 hour ago, Kaner88 said:

Weird having both the NAM & Euro showing good snows, not sure what kind of omen that is but it seems kind of tough to see this thing dropping 6” with how ragged & low-amp the event looks to be 

The ol' EE rule. Book it.

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3 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said:

Maybe this can evolve into a GHD II type scenario. Unlikely though.

That was actually one of the CIPS analogs last time I checked.  Seriously.

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Hope something like this doesn't verify.  The slowing eastward progression of precip is plausible though given the upper ridging that has to be dislodged.  Just a question of where that happens.

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh60-84.thumb.gif.70979c9a68cfbb41ac02553192014109.gif

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hope something like this doesn't verify.  The slowing eastward progression of precip is plausible though given the upper ridging that has to be dislodged.  Just a question of where that happens.

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh60-84.thumb.gif.70979c9a68cfbb41ac02553192014109.gif

Image result for oh god please no gif

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Hope something like this doesn't verify.  The slowing eastward progression of precip is plausible though given the upper ridging that has to be dislodged.  Just a question of where that happens.
namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh60-84.thumb.gif.70979c9a68cfbb41ac02553192014109.gif

This is good stuff

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4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Thread is popping off, gfs must have come in hot

record setting amounts of drizzle

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Thread is popping off, gfs must have come in hot
GEFS did once again. Ride the ensembles.

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you asked for it 18z GEFS for winter storm #dud
 
GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_132.png&key=01c92e2c767ebf2cf93b3befd9e38c26a3e7152061a880e992a5d30e94f6b113
 
 
GEFSUS_prec_snens_132.png&key=7243ba2afca3ba8b621dcedea27186709d94ac1599b53ef581c84c3e451633d1
Would suggest posting Midwest view

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