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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm intrigued with how guidance is now squashing the d6-7 wave. Considering how winter has gone start to finish it would be fair to expect the squashed solution to relax as we move through the medium range. If it never happens then it's a sure sign that things are changing. Can't think of a single wave that trended south/squashed/colder from D5 on in. Might be forgetting something but overall all waves in the midwest have ended up being norther/warmer/rainier at game time. 

except when it has a chance to give us snow

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

this ULL for this weekend storm was once in Virginia for 12z Sat

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_3.png

And that is a typical model bias, more so with gfs and particularly with any thing related to the northern stream.

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Great low track in normal circumstances for the board. Would love to take my chances on that if it came to fruition. Eastern NY wiped off the map lmao. The banding would be crazy verbatim 12z GFS. This season we obv all know to tread very lightly. 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

this ULL for this weekend storm was once in Virginia for 12z Sat

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_3.png

 

 750 mile variance is futility of prediction in action 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Are we getting into the territory where waves are screwing up other waves?  I'm not up for that. 

i think its just one of this winter that dosent  want to snow...either on the computer or on the ground. are you going to raise rent in the valley lol?

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25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, Euro is different vs 0z.  Not sure bad or good yet. 

I don’t see anything good.  Couldn’t be more different from GFS for the Super Bowl storm. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think its just one of this winter that dosent  want to snow...either on the computer or on the ground. are you going to raise rent in the valley lol?

The Euro says yes...raise the rent because we are going to be there for a long while. 

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14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Are we getting into the territory where waves are screwing up other waves?  I'm not up for that. 

Idk...but me personally...I'd rather have 6 waves that may or may not interfere with one another in a 10 day time frame vs 1 wave and 1 shot :D

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16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Theres alot going on and we dont do  complicated  well.

But i don't buy everything suppressed. 

 

I dont buy the suppression either. 

I'm not so sure it's the complicated factor so much as it's the "Busy " factor ...with numerous ns vorts flying around the next 10 days  models will be challenged to see or  hone in on a single one in the mid range imo.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

We cant ever have nice things.

Why are you living model run to model run this far out? Thus is madness, brother....I'd suggest stepping away for a day. Emotional (I'm contemplating the same thing...temptation will be hard to resist, lol) Emotional model watching in the LR=bad!

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Why are you living model run to model run this far out? Thus is madness, brother....I'd suggest stepping away for a day. Emotional (I'm contemplating the same thing...temptation will be hard to resist, lol) Emotional model watching in the LR=bad!

uh...it's Ji...are you new to the board? haha! 

Not sure if it was mentioned, but the 12z CMC was kind of a strung out/suppressed system.

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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

I dont buy the suppression either. 

I'm not so sure it's the complicated factor so much as it's the "Busy " factor ...with numerous ns vorts flying around the next 10 days  models will be challenged to see or  hone in on a single one in the mid range imo.

 

 

Yeah we ain't had suppression all winter...if it were to suddenly be an issue that would just be a case of MAI (mid-atlantic-itis)

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3 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

uh...it's Ji...are you new to the board? haha! 

Not sure if it was mentioned, but the 12z CMC was kind of a strung out/suppressed system.

I'm not, but...I just don't understand that dude, lol

Anyway...it seems like we haven't had to deal with "strung out" since the awful la Nina's a couple years ago. And this year everything has been kinda juiced...but cutters. If we now finally have a chance at a southern system...and cold in place before it...ya never know! Just glad to see us back in the game again!

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We need something to track in the short/midrange so we’re not locking in on these phantom LR events. We’re sitting here talking about systems for the following weekend lol. Not many options and it’s all good for analysis, but it’s just too far out. These weather models struggle at times with same day cloudy vs sunny forecasts.

2015 was brought up as a back loaded winter and it was, but there was more cold around and early January produced a few inches from a clipper that year.  Hopefully that tide turns soon.  Next week does look active, so that’s a start.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I thought about it.  I'm going to give it at least until February.

I'd wait to see what happens the next 10-12 days. If we still manage to whiff even after all that activity...then bring out the teardrop, lol (so let's hope ya keep it on the shelf!)

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12z EPS builds some weak ridging into GL towards the end of the run. At least a neutral looking NAO. Maybe transient, but something to watch in future runs.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z EPS builds some weak ridging into GL towards the end of the run. At least a neutral looking NAO. Maybe transient, but something to watch in future runs.

Which dates?

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1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

@psuhoffman, not to overanalyze a 10 day deterministic GFS run, but concerning the rain we get from that bombing storm the first couple days of February...could part of that be due to the shortwave/low just north of the Lakes, messing up the thermals for us?  I do see that the high and 50/50 move out more rapidly than we'd like too, which I think was mentioned as well.  Regardless, that is quite a nice setup which I'm sure will change.

The bigger issue is the upper low digs too far south and closes off along the gulf coast. That creates a south and even southeast flow ahead of it and slows the system down giving it time to wreck the thermal profile ahead of it. If that upper low was more in sync with the NS and further north it would be ok. Good news is I highly doubt we get a cut off low south of Atlanta. 

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

1581076800-NHQdWRxjSRA.png

All guidance is consistently showing a pna ridge allowing some of the cold in AK to discharge into the eastern US. This time of year AK cold will do well enough.  It’s an ok workable look. But if the euro is onto something...that look there can evolve into a legit very good pattern easily. If that east based NAO ridge continues to build...I am becoming a little less pessimistic about February.  But people should keep expectations in check. The goal should be to get a snowy February...not a snowy “winter” at this point. It’s unlikely we’re going to make up for losing 60% of winter. If we do great and revel in it but expecting that is setting up for disappointment. 

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