Ji Posted January 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm intrigued with how guidance is now squashing the d6-7 wave. Considering how winter has gone start to finish it would be fair to expect the squashed solution to relax as we move through the medium range. If it never happens then it's a sure sign that things are changing. Can't think of a single wave that trended south/squashed/colder from D5 on in. Might be forgetting something but overall all waves in the midwest have ended up being norther/warmer/rainier at game time. except when it has a chance to give us snow Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: this ULL for this weekend storm was once in Virginia for 12z Sat And that is a typical model bias, more so with gfs and particularly with any thing related to the northern stream. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2020 Great low track in normal circumstances for the board. Would love to take my chances on that if it came to fruition. Eastern NY wiped off the map lmao. The banding would be crazy verbatim 12z GFS. This season we obv all know to tread very lightly. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WEATHER53 Posted January 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: this ULL for this weekend storm was once in Virginia for 12z Sat 750 mile variance is futility of prediction in action Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2020 Are we getting into the territory where waves are screwing up other waves? I'm not up for that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Are we getting into the territory where waves are screwing up other waves? I'm not up for that. i think its just one of this winter that dosent want to snow...either on the computer or on the ground. are you going to raise rent in the valley lol? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2020 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, Euro is different vs 0z. Not sure bad or good yet. I don’t see anything good. Couldn’t be more different from GFS for the Super Bowl storm. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chris78 Posted January 23, 2020 Theres alot going on and we dont do complicated well. But i don't buy everything suppressed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: i think its just one of this winter that dosent want to snow...either on the computer or on the ground. are you going to raise rent in the valley lol? The Euro says yes...raise the rent because we are going to be there for a long while. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted January 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Are we getting into the territory where waves are screwing up other waves? I'm not up for that. Idk...but me personally...I'd rather have 6 waves that may or may not interfere with one another in a 10 day time frame vs 1 wave and 1 shot 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted January 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Theres alot going on and we dont do complicated well. But i don't buy everything suppressed. I dont buy the suppression either. I'm not so sure it's the complicated factor so much as it's the "Busy " factor ...with numerous ns vorts flying around the next 10 days models will be challenged to see or hone in on a single one in the mid range imo. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 We cant ever have nice things. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Euro does manage to keep 850 temps below zero all week long though Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro does manage to keep 850 temps below zero all week long though yay? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Interstate Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: yay? Might be time to bring out the teardrop Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: We cant ever have nice things. Why are you living model run to model run this far out? Thus is madness, brother....I'd suggest stepping away for a day. Emotional (I'm contemplating the same thing...temptation will be hard to resist, lol) Emotional model watching in the LR=bad! 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Why are you living model run to model run this far out? Thus is madness, brother....I'd suggest stepping away for a day. Emotional (I'm contemplating the same thing...temptation will be hard to resist, lol) Emotional model watching in the LR=bad! uh...it's Ji...are you new to the board? haha! Not sure if it was mentioned, but the 12z CMC was kind of a strung out/suppressed system. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I dont buy the suppression either. I'm not so sure it's the complicated factor so much as it's the "Busy " factor ...with numerous ns vorts flying around the next 10 days models will be challenged to see or hone in on a single one in the mid range imo. Yeah we ain't had suppression all winter...if it were to suddenly be an issue that would just be a case of MAI (mid-atlantic-itis) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: uh...it's Ji...are you new to the board? haha! Not sure if it was mentioned, but the 12z CMC was kind of a strung out/suppressed system. I'm not, but...I just don't understand that dude, lol Anyway...it seems like we haven't had to deal with "strung out" since the awful la Nina's a couple years ago. And this year everything has been kinda juiced...but cutters. If we now finally have a chance at a southern system...and cold in place before it...ya never know! Just glad to see us back in the game again! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 yay?Well of course it does cause it shows zero precip lol Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: Might be time to bring out the teardrop I thought about it. I'm going to give it at least until February. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
87storms Posted January 23, 2020 We need something to track in the short/midrange so we’re not locking in on these phantom LR events. We’re sitting here talking about systems for the following weekend lol. Not many options and it’s all good for analysis, but it’s just too far out. These weather models struggle at times with same day cloudy vs sunny forecasts. 2015 was brought up as a back loaded winter and it was, but there was more cold around and early January produced a few inches from a clipper that year. Hopefully that tide turns soon. Next week does look active, so that’s a start. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: I thought about it. I'm going to give it at least until February. I'd wait to see what happens the next 10-12 days. If we still manage to whiff even after all that activity...then bring out the teardrop, lol (so let's hope ya keep it on the shelf!) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted January 23, 2020 PSU mentioned that the potential pattern being shown had the potential for SE snowstorms. Suppression isn't a surprise here Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted January 23, 2020 12z EPS builds some weak ridging into GL towards the end of the run. At least a neutral looking NAO. Maybe transient, but something to watch in future runs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z EPS builds some weak ridging into GL towards the end of the run. At least a neutral looking NAO. Maybe transient, but something to watch in future runs. Which dates? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LP08 Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Which dates? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted January 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Which dates? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said: @psuhoffman, not to overanalyze a 10 day deterministic GFS run, but concerning the rain we get from that bombing storm the first couple days of February...could part of that be due to the shortwave/low just north of the Lakes, messing up the thermals for us? I do see that the high and 50/50 move out more rapidly than we'd like too, which I think was mentioned as well. Regardless, that is quite a nice setup which I'm sure will change. The bigger issue is the upper low digs too far south and closes off along the gulf coast. That creates a south and even southeast flow ahead of it and slows the system down giving it time to wreck the thermal profile ahead of it. If that upper low was more in sync with the NS and further north it would be ok. Good news is I highly doubt we get a cut off low south of Atlanta. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: All guidance is consistently showing a pna ridge allowing some of the cold in AK to discharge into the eastern US. This time of year AK cold will do well enough. It’s an ok workable look. But if the euro is onto something...that look there can evolve into a legit very good pattern easily. If that east based NAO ridge continues to build...I am becoming a little less pessimistic about February. But people should keep expectations in check. The goal should be to get a snowy February...not a snowy “winter” at this point. It’s unlikely we’re going to make up for losing 60% of winter. If we do great and revel in it but expecting that is setting up for disappointment. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
