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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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OMG! The 18z GFS just nailed the next 12 days and we're screwed! No reason to look at models anymore cuz it's over. Unless you dig into the ensembles for a better picture of possibilities

UOj5QKy.png

 

This is one busiest ens runs inside of 10 days we've had all year. Perfectly illustrates that multiple waves and progressive flow is causing havoc on NWP. The 30th through Feb 4th is a very large window with MASSIVE spread in sensible wx outcomes. I predict wild swings on ops every 6 hours for the rest of the week. Ji might need rx meds to get him through the week. Either way he'll require daily group counseling in this thread. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

OMG! The 18z GFS just nailed the next 12 days and we're screwed! No reason to look at models anymore cuz it's over. Unless you dig into the ensembles for a better picture of possibilities

UOj5QKy.png

 

This is one busiest ens runs inside of 10 days we've had all year. Perfectly illustrates that multiple waves and progressive flow is causing havoc on NWP. The 30th through Feb 4th is a very large window with MASSIVE spread in sensible wx outcomes. I predict wild swings on ops every 6 hours for the rest of the week. Ji might need rx meds to get him through the week. Either way he'll require daily group counseling in this thread. 

I don’t think Ji is the only one. Tensions are getting high around here. 

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GFS keeps finding ways to screw us over.   Now, strong northern sw smashes the wave to the south.  That wave wasn't there/that strong last run.   Players on the field, game hasn't even started yet...keep hope alive
Which player is that 219f9fb414158733c410b7910fd692e4.jpg
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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

GFS keeps finding ways to screw us over.   Now, strong northern sw smashes the wave to the south.  That wave wasn't there/that strong last run.   Players on the field, game hasn't even started yet...keep hope alive

Next month is the Superbowl, in Miami, and in Washington DC. A snowstorm will develop next month and once all those players get on the DC field of play, The Entire Mid Atlantic is gonna get totally annihilated by snow. It will be THE SUPERBOWL of snowstorms, and the Washington Metropolitan Region is gonna win BIG.

 

Edit - Mods please feel free to delete this - I forgot it is the analysis topic, not the banter topic lol.

 

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Pretty wild stuff euro smokin4a8289308f576b7153e8bc9bbef8b4f5.jpg

Does that give us anything frozen? It looks pretty there but I assume it’s rain. Edit: I saw the precip panels.  975 south of us.  Whatever it’s smoking it must be the good stuff. Not worth parsing the particulars at the surface but at first glance looks like an Apps pasting. 

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Next month is the Superbowl, in Miami, and in Washington DC. A snowstorm will develop next month and once all those players get on the DC field of play, The Entire Mid Atlantic is gonna get totally annihilated by snow. It will be THE SUPERBOWL of snowstorms, and the Washington Metropolitan Region is gonna win BIG.
 
Edit - Mods please feel free to delete this - I forgot it is the analysis topic, not the banter topic lol.
 
Except you forgot about one factor that screws everything up and we get rained on. Dan Snyder is still at the helm and it's a nonWinterbowl.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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12 hours ago, frd said:

 

I don't care what anyone else says, I am viewing HM's post in the context that we are getting a March blizzard this year.  :sled:

I mean why else would he post this, right .  Who cares about the NAM  state right now.  

 

 

You forgot this part lol

Screenshot_20200124-072901_Twitter.jpg

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GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.

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12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.

Agreed....that is why I keep saying that we need a little luck.  But also remember close only counts when playing horseshoes.

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GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.
The gfs had a great track and it was still rain....in western maryland
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26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.

It’s not no hope. But people should realize the most likely outcome is a suppressed wave next week while we have the 50/50 because the ridge in Canada is a bit too far southeast. Then once the 50/50 vacates the most likely result is rain. This setup is better but still flawed.  But there is enough space something could amplify enough next week just not likely.  After that to make the early Feb storm work, because there is ridging ahead of it and nothing to hold cold in, we need the upper low to dive in through say TN/KY and cut off over VA not down south. The cut off south of us slows the system and blasts warm air up the east coast ahead of it. We’re back to needing the perfect upper low track with that. However this time some guidance is way further south with that and they almost always correct north so it’s not as hopeless as the last setup.  

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.

The gfs had a great track and it was still rain....in western maryland

Too weak. The cold is gone by then. If it’s not the first wave next week after that it probably has to be a perfect track bomb with a perfect track upper low to work. Unlikely but that’s just how it is. 

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