SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Let do this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 This is a difficult forecast for my area as well. Models are trending nw a bit with the snow/sleet line this evening and overnight. Frankly, it's looking like Cedar Rapids may end up with a bunch of sleet, which sucks. Regarding wave #2, while the globals have trended southeast, the CAMs continue to insist on a farther nw track of the deformation zone, right through Iowa. My guess is I will get very little snow tonight and maybe 2-3" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Now the ICON has gone back nw a bit and stronger with wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Now the ICON has gone back nw a bit and stronger with wave 2. The ICON has been farther West for a while now though, it's just stronger by far this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 GFS following the general consensus with overnight stuff GFS and RGEM both also a miss southeast with the defo death band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I guess with all the recent variability, I prefer my spot of low expectations with the arrow pointing up, as opposed to expecting a heavy snow scenario, albeit with high bust potential. Those are the worst when it busts. I'll just watch the trends, and hope that the cold air finds its way into far NWI while moisture is aplenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 GFS drier/East Big time disappointment for our WI guys lined up for a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: GFS drier/East Big time disappointment for our WI guys lined up for a big dog. Yeah this is pretty dissapointing, I mean 6-8" isnt a minor storm, but it's not the foot that was looking to happen at one point. Ahh well I'll try to enjoy this one and he who knows maybe that GFS run will come to fruititon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I'm curious why the CAMs (nam/hrrr) are so much farther nw with the wave 2 defo zone than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: GFS drier/East Big time disappointment for our WI guys lined up for a big dog. Yeah not sure what to think of it. May be leaning more toward the CAMs because they can resolve all the convection occurring to the south but there is still more uncertainty at this point than I'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Is the 12z NAM just a throw out run now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, WI_SNOWSTORM said: Is the 12z NAM just a throw out run now? I wouldn't throw it out, but I would discount it a bit as overly amped pending the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I'm hoping for some good photos of 2 story high waves on Lake Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said: I'm hoping for some good photos of 2 story high waves on Lake Michigan I'll grab some Saturday morning if it's not pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I'm hoping for some good photos of 2 story high waves on Lake MichiganI can get you a pic of the flooded Kankakee. If that doesn’t get your winter storm juices flowing I don’t know what will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 59 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: GFS following the general consensus with overnight stuff GFS and RGEM both also a miss southeast with the defo death band Here's your next hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 rainer^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: rainer^ Nah, keep walking its right there, just a little further, around the corner.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Band of freezing rain steadily making it's way NE in central Iowa. Going to clip Cedar Rapids in about an hour or hour and a half. Temp is at 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 HRRR remains consistent bringing the heavy snow band through Iowa City to Madison tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 56 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Here's your next hope Looks great. Little full, lotta sap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Thinking Chicago NWS should replace Winter storm warning with an advisory and drop the areas under a watch and probably will when/if the euro follows thru like the rest of the 12Z guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Thinking Chicago NWS should replace Winter storm warning with an advisory and drop the areas under a watch and probably will when/if the euro follows thru like the rest of the 12Z guidance And there you have it... LOT just made some changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Thinking Chicago NWS should replace Winter storm warning with an advisory and drop the areas under a watch. Some watch areas just dropped to Advisory. edit: sniped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Think it's safe to toss the NAM/3KM NAM in regards to just about everything. They are both too overzealous with snow tonight/tomorrow AM in IA/WI. Additionally, they are way further west with the main system snow Sat eve/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Thinking Chicago NWS should replace Winter storm warning with an advisory and drop the areas under a watch and probably will when/if the euro follows thru like the rest of the 12Z guidance looks to me like they simply converted watches to advisories. Which was alluded to in this morning's discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Ukie came in with a good hit NE. IL and surrounding areas...warning criteria snows with the main system. It has been steadfast in it's more east solution for days. Could be a solid victory for it, if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12z Euro looking even weaker and more bleh area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Feeling pretty good about getting some snow. Fairly low confidence on amounts though. I think about 1" is worst case but if things go better, maybe more like 2-4" Ground will be very wet of course but many hours will be spent around 33-35 degrees before that, with temps dropping pretty quickly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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