• Member Statistics

    15,752
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SnowIsMyName
    Newest Member
    SnowIsMyName
    Joined
MountainGeek

Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event

Recommended Posts

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Topper just mentioned potential for thunder on Twitter. 

That'd be nice... but I don't think there will be any MUCAPE

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Topper just mentioned potential for thunder on Twitter. 

There were some lightning strikes in E TN this morning 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The warm layer is so thin those of us E of 95 might be able to look up and watch our snowflakes melt.  Might be snowing at the top of the Legg Mason building in the innner harbor and raining on the street lol.

Side note, I wonder if thats ever happened somewhere with really tall buildings like NYC where the warm layer was so thin it was raining on the street but snowing on the tops of the ~1000ft+ buildings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Coming down good now.

You in Stephens City? If so, there is little if any lag between returns and ground truth. Interesting...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i get that everyone is at their ends with no snow these days, but can we try and make better posts? 

COD-GOES-East-local-Virginia.02.20200107.154617-over=map-bars=.gif

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HREF mean snowfall for the region is between 2-4" for a majority of NoVa west of I-95 all the way to the north in Central MD. Probability threshold for >4" accumulation is fairly low for a majority of the area, but there is a focal centered north of I-70 from Northern Frederick to the east across Carroll and Baltimore counties. The 1hr snow mean is actually pretty impressive for a 4 hr span beginning at 20z through 0z for the central MD crew showing a general 0.5/hr accumulation. but pockets of up to 0.75"/hr. Remember that what is shown is a mean, and not necessarily a slam dunk. 1-1.5"hr for an hour or two is very much in the cards, so localized amounts exceeding 4" north of I-70 is possibility. We know the usual suspects :lol:

A sharp gradient in snowfall totals is depicted as well toward the bay. Areas east of I-95 may struggle to reach 1 inch. A few in here have been pessimistic about their chances of receiving over an inch. It has merit, but that is just climo. Nothing much you can do. 

Final forecast is 1-3 " for inside the beltway(s), Alexandria, Arlington, and southwest of DC. 2-4" for areas north of the Potomac in MD, WV Panhandle, and northern neck of VA. 2-5" for areas north of I-70 stretching from Hagerstown to northern Harford County near Jarretsville. Best chance for the higher end is Parrs Ridge, MD line crew on a triangle of Emmitsburg/Mt Airy/Jarretsville.

  • Like 10
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Coming down good now.

IYBY?! Are any pigs flying yet? 

In all seriousness congrats.

 

Currently 40/23 at IAD at 10:57am est on Tuesday, January 7th, 2020.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Radar looks like it will start to light up once east of the mountains.  Waiting for the 11am update but quite the uptick between 9am and 10am.

ks81FOA.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

HREF mean snowfall for the region is between 2-4" for a majority of NoVa west of I-95 all the way to the north in Central MD. Probability threshold for >4" accumulation is fairly low for a majority of the area, but there is a focal centered north of I-70 from Northern Frederick to the east across Carroll and Baltimore counties. The 1hr snow mean is actually pretty impressive for a 4 hr span beginning at 20z through 0z for the central MD crew showing a general 0.5/hr accumulation. but pockets of up to 0.75"/hr. Remember that what is shown is a mean, and not necessarily a slam dunk. 1-1.5"hr for an hour or two is very much in the cards, so localized amounts exceeding 4" north of I-70 is possibility. We know the usual suspects :lol:

A sharp gradient in snowfall totals is depicted as well toward the bay. Areas east of I-95 may struggle to reach 1 inch. A few in here have been pessimistic about their chances of receiving over an inch. It has merit, but that is just climo. Nothing much you can do. 

Final forecast is 1-3 " for inside the beltway(s), Alexandria, Arlington, and southwest of DC. 2-4" for areas north of the Potomac in MD, WV Panhandle, and northern neck of VA. 2-5" for areas north of I-70 stretching from Hagerstown to northern Harford County near Jarretsville. Best chance for the higher end is Parrs Ridge, MD line crew on a triangle of Emmitsburg/Mt Airy/Jarretsville.

Thanks for taking the time to do this

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Deck Pic said:

47/23 imby

45/22 DCA

That area of PC skies this morning did some damage. Chips fall time. Hope you get some heavies today. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know its not the same... but wasn't the St. Patty's Day storm (March 2017 I think?) the same temp wise?  Got into the 40s, snow started instead of rain due to the DP/T depression?

Yes, March does not equal January... but that popped up into my mind

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

The warm layer is so thin those of us E of 95 might be able to look up and watch our snowflakes melt.  Might be snowing at the top of the Legg Mason building in the innner harbor and raining on the street lol.

Side note, I wonder if thats ever happened somewhere with really tall buildings like NYC where the warm layer was so thin it was raining on the street but snowing on the tops of the ~1000ft+ buildings.

It happens somewhat frequently in marginal events. Especially NYC where being right on the coast can torch their boundary layer with an easterly wind. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, yoda said:

I know its not the same... but wasn't the St. Patty's Day storm (March 2017 I think?) the same temp wise?  Got into the 40s, snow started instead of rain due to the DP/T depression?

Yes, March does not equal January... but that popped up into my mind

At this point there's plenty of data to think about and understand how that applies to each person's yard. My climo nearly always puts me in the middle on these types of deals. 1-2" is where my head is at. A clean 2" would be quite a victory. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I know its not the same... but wasn't the St. Patty's Day storm (March 2017 I think?) the same temp wise?  Got into the 40s, snow started instead of rain due to the DP/T depression?

Yes, March does not equal January... but that popped up into my mind

I’ve been thinking of that storm today. Was mid/upper 40s ahead of precip and precip started as snow IMBY.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

47/23 imby

45/22 DCA

Prime snow temps.  Once we get down to 40 at 5:30 pm, the getting will be good.   I'm at Navy Yard with a stout 5 feet elevation.  

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

At this point there's plenty of data to think about and understand how that applies to each person's yard. My climo nearly always puts me in the middle on these types of deals. 1-2" is where my head is at. A clean 2" would be quite a victory. 

I'm always conservative and really don't like putting a boom or top end scenario I've thought from jump 1/2" - 2" for here. Sounds like it will be pretty for awhile even if not accumulating 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.