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Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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EPS DAY 13- 15 BYE SE RIDGE. 

 

Winter returns on Jan 19 on the EPS.

Even if it`s 5 days early, that ejected a lot faster than the guidance would imply. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-9456800 JAN 6 HOLY 850.png

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2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Joe Bastardi says winter will return: 

 

 

 

Eps and geps look really good by the 20th

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Think the EPS and Canadian Ensembles may be a tick early but thinks that where it goes by the 25th or so.

I like that date too,  however the EPS seems very fast with this flip as it`s just ejecting the NEG faster. 

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1 hour ago, PB-99 said:

EPS DAY 13- 15 BYE SE RIDGE. 

 

Winter returns on Jan 19 on the EPS.

Even if it`s 5 days early, that ejected a lot faster than the guidance would imply. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-9456800 JAN 6 HOLY 850.png

I ALWAYS HATE the winter over posts

 

because its common for the flip flops, back to cold...…..its like a movie re run we've seen a million times

 

winter is far from over

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t really trust any of the ensembles at day 15 ranges. But the EPS has a problem with MJO transitions from phase 5 to 6. It’s one of the few times that the CFS can beat the EPS. Whether this is the issue now  is hard to know. We can also see -EPO’s develop  in unfavorable MJO phases. So the issue between the models could be independent of the MJO and more EPO related. 
 

Predictability and Prediction Skill of the MJO in Two Operational Forecasting Systems
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00480.1

D0D1B123-4CF6-4298-8447-A76685E857FB.gif.17002e7a3793f3babfa42dd4f087760f.gif

 

It starts by day 11 not day 15.

 

The SE ridge ridge is becoming muted by day 11 ( You will see some height rises on day 12 but that`s due to the EPS seeing LP coming off OBX and working it`s way to CC.

 

The trough from this point forward drives out to the center of the CONUS. D 13- 15.

 

Once that happens that SE ridge is gone. There is to much Vortex in your Hemisphere and once the MJO starts to race towards 7 and away from 6 , the response will be to push the negative E of the Rockies.

 

The Canadian Ensembles are in the EPS camp. 

 

So I suspect the EPS could be a few days too fast and a return towards a better pattern by the 25th is here.

 

The EPS does give you a hint of an EC storm on the 19th, but that`s too far to look at. 

 

 

 

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_norm_anom-9219200 JAN 6 DAY 11 SIGMA.png

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Going off a day 11-15 ensemble is not something I'd depend on. 

The only thing that's been verifying is a stronger than progged SE ridge and I don't see that changing with the highly unfavorable Pacific & MJO. 

Any colder than normal weather won't happen until Feb assuming the MJO doesn't get stuck. Feb will likely be much colder than Jan (not difficult if January is +6 or better) though it could still be AN.

I like raindancewx's analysis about how the months are mimicking what we saw in late summer and fall. 

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Going off a day 11-15 ensemble is not something I'd depend on. 

The only thing that's been verifying is a stronger than progged SE ridge and I don't see that changing with the highly unfavorable Pacific & MJO. 

Any colder than normal weather won't happen until Feb assuming the MJO doesn't get stuck. Feb will likely be much colder than Jan (not difficult if January is +6 or better) though it could still be AN.

I like raindancewx's analysis about how the months are mimicking what we saw in late summer and fall. 

What?

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20 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

18z GFS, wow! Someone in NJ going to be pleasantly surprised Tom night/Wed

 

gfs_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

GFS keeps flirting with making this interesting up to NYC but I feel like it's a tease

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What are these models WRF-ARW? No idea how good they are but this ARW 2 has a nice snow event for everyone.

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A weak disturbance coated parts of the region with snow earlier today. Snowfall amounts included: Basking Ridge, NJ: 0.8"; Bridgeport: Trace; Islip: Trace; New York City: 0.2"; and, Newark: 0.9".

Following the light snowfall, temperatures rose into the middle 40s.

It is now all but certain that New York City will have a mean temperature of 40° or above during the first week of the month. Since 1869, there were 23 cases when the first week of January had a mean temperature of 40° or above in New York City. In 17 (74%), January wound up warmer than normal and in 12 (52%), January had a mean temperature of 35° or above. The average monthly temperature for January for all 23 cases was 36.0° (median temperature: 35.6°).

A short-duration fairly sharp cold shot is possible Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of the cold shot, a system will likely bring precipitation to the region from tomorrow into Wednesday. Parts of the area could pick up a light snowfall, though most of the region will likely see little or no accumulation. A greater chance for 2" or more snow exists for parts of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey.

The light snowfall scenario is consistent with historic experience during very strong AO+ patterns during the first half of January. Based on the forecast strongly positive AO, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first 10 days of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables).

Following the brief cold shot, ridging with warmer than normal temperatures will develop and persist through at least mid-month. Beyond that, there is the potential that the closing part of the month could see a colder pattern develop. The progression of the MJO and state of the teleconnections will determine the pattern evolution for the second half of the month.

Despite continuing 500 mb differences in the extended range, there remains strong consensus between the EPS and GEFS that the PNA will remain negative to strongly negative past mid-month. Such a scenario would lead to a continuation of a generally mild pattern beyond mid-month. Transient cold shots would be possible.

A PNA- typically translates in warm anomalies in the Middle Atlantic region. For the January 16-31, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature for New York City and Philadelphia was 32.2° and 32.1° respectively. When the PNA was negative, those values were 34.2° and 34.1° respectively. The coldest mean temperatures for PNA- periods occurred when the EPO and AO were both negative (New York City: 29.1° and Philadelphia: 28.9°). The warmest occurred when the EPO and AO were both positive (New York City: 37.9° and Philadelphia: 37.5°).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +18.61 today. That is the highest SOI figure since August 10, 2019 when the SOI was +20.15.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.126.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 14, several short periods of warming appear likely to develop in the upper stratosphere and then to approach or reach 5 mb over the next 10 days before fading. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively muted following the first week of the month except in the upper stratosphere where it will trigger the warming principally above 5 mb. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS.

On January 5, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.904 (RMM). The January 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.405.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 81% probability of a warmer than normal January.

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Anyone care to verify if the CFS mean  for the 30-Day Period Jan.18-Feb.17 is a actually predicting the coldest ever such period at 17degs.BN!?    That would roughly be tantamount to 30 days starting at  10* and going up to 23*.

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Seems my phone has a different account/profile as indicated above.

At any rate courtesy of WxBell:

1581811200-XBL3G1qU7z0.png

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The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or about 11degs. AN.

Month to date is +8.3[41.3].       Should be about +9.9[42.3] by the 15th.

39* here at 6am.      45* by Noon.

EURO/GFS are a Trace of Snow, CMC is Zippo.       Most importantly, GFS is all BN T's starting near the 17th.      But we need a total snow cover for 10's of thousand of square miles around us to do that -17 for a 30-Day Period.

 

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12 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

There's definitely cold air around, this weekends storm is showing that, we are just a bit too far south to access it in this pattern. 

Near record jet streak to our north with such an extreme temperature gradient.

662CAA87-3F9F-44E1-9223-8FBA37EE9155.gif.1de9bf9af90c29f39f44acc7efe19b15.gif

D2521E3B-BC02-467C-92DF-36AB45B927C5.thumb.png.c2daa308ff69bbb0320a7aba8b7af3af.png

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Near record jet streak to our north with such an extreme temperature gradient.

662CAA87-3F9F-44E1-9223-8FBA37EE9155.gif.1de9bf9af90c29f39f44acc7efe19b15.gif

D2521E3B-BC02-467C-92DF-36AB45B927C5.thumb.png.c2daa308ff69bbb0320a7aba8b7af3af.png

 

It would appear the people who said the the models were too quick with the change to colder yesterday, were correct, they have backed down from what they were showing yesterday. Looks like a slower, post 1/21 change now..

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It would appear the people who said the the models were too quick with the change to colder yesterday, were correct, they have backed down from what they were showing yesterday. Looks like a slower, post 1/21 change now..

Post 1/20 has always been the change and no one backed down.

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