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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What's with all the doom?

Mjo looks pretty good  at the end of this month 

20200104_1047501.jpg

20200104_1045261.jpg

 

 

 

Keep in mind, the phase 7-MJO response is still a warm one for the E US, although cold-air transport into the Plains increases. One would need continued propagation into phase 8 at amplitude for potential/putative pattern amelioration [and as discussed yesterday by Bluewave and I, propagation into 8 is not necessarily a guarantee of a significant pattern change, either -- many factors involved].

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1 minute ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

Keep in mind, the phase 7-MJO response is still a warm one for the E US, although cold-air transport into the Plains increases. One would need continued propagation into phase 8 at amplitude for potential/putative pattern amelioration [and as discussed yesterday by Bluewave and I, propagation into 8 is not necessarily a guarantee of a significant pattern change, either -- many factors involved].

Yes but it looks way better than what the pattern shows now.

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If at all.   

No guarantee on 7/8-that's out in lala land at this point

2012 was a dry inferno after the 10 day winter in January-March was dry and 60's and 70's and we even had an 80 or 2.   

wow sounds a lot like how I remember 1989-90

Funny how I remember 1989-90 better than I do 2011-12 lol.

 

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Anyone mentioning about the storm during the week? It's getting more progressive and further east. We should watch that especially inland areas.

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Anyway mentioning about the storm during the week? It's getting more progressive and further east. We should watch that especially inland areas.

The problem is it's going to be 40 degrees on tuesday. Even if it comes in as wet snow rather than rain near the coast, it would likely be non accumulating snow or a light accumulation on colder surfaces at best. It looks like an event for well to the north and west rather than near the coast. Very borderline airmass, as the colder air doesn't come in until behind the storm. Wednesday will be colder and windy.

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17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The problem is it's going to be 40 degrees on tuesday. Even if it comes in as wet snow rather than rain near the coast, it would likely be non accumulating snow or a light accumulation on colder surfaces at best. It looks like an event for well to the north and west rather than near the coast. Very borderline airmass, as the colder air doesn't come in until behind the storm. Wednesday will be colder and windy.

The models are trending more favorable.  This isnt a inland low anymore.

Latest Ukie

 

GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

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59 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

Keep in mind, the phase 7-MJO response is still a warm one for the E US, although cold-air transport into the Plains increases. One would need continued propagation into phase 8 at amplitude for potential/putative pattern amelioration [and as discussed yesterday by Bluewave and I, propagation into 8 is not necessarily a guarantee of a significant pattern change, either -- many factors involved].

Looks like we are going into phase 8 according to the charts. I dont get what all the doom and gloom is. 

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like we are going into phase 8 according to the charts. I dont get what all the doom and gloom is. 

agreed - plenty of cold enough temps in the 12Z GFS along with warmer temps that do not stick around for a long time and mid-week event has the LP trending south and colder...……..

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Remember the cool down the models were showing between the 5th and 10th a week ago. It looks like we only  get 1or 2 colder than normal days now.

 

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/04/2020  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SUN 05| MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11|SUN CLIMO
 N/X  36  41| 34  50| 34  44| 29  40| 20  35| 31  48| 47  54| 47 25 38
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I don't doubt we get into a better period. Just concerned about the duration. Want a flip rather than a 2 week current pattern reload which seems probable given the Pacific SSTs

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Geez, I need anti depressants after reading page after page about 60 degree warmth. Is anybody even mildly interested in what happens late Tuesday/Tuesday night besides snow88? There is a legit chance of a at least a light snow event especially north and west. For the northern folks on this board NWS Albany is saying 2-4 possible. 

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19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Geez, I need anti depressants after reading page after page about 60 degree warmth. Is anybody even mildly interested in what happens late Tuesday/Tuesday night besides snow88? There is a legit chance of a at least a light snow event especially north and west. For the northern folks on this board NWS Albany is saying 2-4 possible. 

Will take it in a Heartbeat 

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1 hour ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Looks like a decent light snow event for most in region this week

Per 85% of the posters. January is toast.

mt holly nws afd actually Discusses snow in the interior sections this week.

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40 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Geez, I need anti depressants after reading page after page about 60 degree warmth. Is anybody even mildly interested in what happens late Tuesday/Tuesday night besides snow88? There is a legit chance of a at least a light snow event especially north and west. For the northern folks on this board NWS Albany is saying 2-4 possible. 

I'd take it but not much is working out lately....remember how tonight was snow a few days ago?

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd take it but not much is working out lately....remember how tonight was snow a few days ago?

Nah, this weekend was never going to be snow. Only model that showed any real snow was Euro for a few runs and then it corrected. At least it's something to watch before the warm up. 

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4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

18z NAM is actually showing a few inches of snow for the coast tuesday afternoon/evening. Other models aren't as cold, but something to keep an eye on.

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

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NURSE:     No change in the patient's condition since last week DOCTOR!

DOCTOR:     This patient is Dead!     Report to my office at once Nurse!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

814analog.off.gif

So the patient was not dead after all?      Just a drug induced coma!?

rrwt-2125-nh-tmp.png

 

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1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Nah, this weekend was never going to be snow. Only model that showed any real snow was Euro for a few runs and then it corrected. At least it's something to watch before the warm up. 

My p&c added some snow in before the precip pulls out tonight.

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11 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

NURSE:     No change in the patient's condition since last week DOCTOR!

DOCTOR:     This patient is Dead!     Report to my office at once Nurse!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

814analog.off.gif

Man every winter on that, expect 2008 locally, was bad lol. Terrible pattern for all of us. 

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7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles are quite wet, the active Pacific jet will keep feeding us moisture.

It's like a tropical pattern in January.

Places like Newark could make a run on a 60 degree dewpoint. But that 68 dewpoint record during the January 1998 super El Niño is probably safe.

Highest January dewpoints at Newark

68...1998

62....2018....1972

61...2007...1993...1975

60...2005...1972

 

 

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Places like Newark could make a run on a 60 degree dewpoint. But that 68 dewpoint record during the January 1998 super El Niño is probably safe.

Highest January dewpoints at Newark

68...1998

62....2018....1972

61...2007...1993...1975

60...2005...1972

 

 

68 dp in January this far north is insane!! Indicative of how warm the 97-98 super El Nino winter was. 

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Temperatures rose into the lower 50s across the New York Metro Area and nearby suburbs today.

New York City will very likely have a mean temperature of 40° or above during the first week of the month. Since 1869, there were 23 cases when the first week of January had a mean temperature of 40° or above in New York City. In 17 (74%), January wound up warmer than normal and in 12 (52%), January had a mean temperature of 35° or above. The average monthly temperature for January for all 23 cases was 36.0° (median temperature: 35.6°).

A short-duration cold shot is possible after the first week of January. A small window of opportunity for at least some snowfall in the region and especially across central/upstate New York and New England could exist until around January 10.

Based on the forecast strongly positive AO, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first 10 days of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables). Such a scenario does not preclude the possibility of a light snow event across parts of the region during this timeframe, particularly prior to January 10.

Afterward, a tendency for ridging with warmer than normal temperatures prevailing will very likely develop during the latter part of the second week of the month and persist through at least mid-month. Afterward, the progression of the MJO and state of the teleconnections will determine the pattern evolution for the second half of the month.

Right now, there is strong consensus between the EPS and GEFS that the PNA will remain negative to strongly negative past mid-month. That typically translates in warm anomalies in the Middle Atlantic region. For the January 16-31, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature for New York City and Philadelphia was 32.2° and 32.1° respectively. When the PNA was negative, those values were 34.2° and 34.1° respectively. The coldest mean temperatures for PNA- periods occurred when the EPO and AO were both negative. The warmest occurred when the EPO and AO were both positive.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +11.50 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.040.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 12, several periods of warming appear likely to develop in the upper stratosphere and approach or reach 5 mb over the next 10 days. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively muted following the first week of the month except in the upper stratosphere where it will trigger the warming principally above 5 mb. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS.

On January 3, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.331 (RMM). The January 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.512.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 79% probability of a warmer than normal January.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Places like Newark could make a run on a 60 degree dewpoint. But that 68 dewpoint record during the January 1998 super El Niño is probably safe.

Highest January dewpoints at Newark

68...1998

62....2018....1972

61...2007...1993...1975

60...2005...1972

 

 

the trend during the past few years has been for dewpoints to increase right up to verification time so i wonder if there's a shot

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42 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

68 dp in January this far north is insane!! Indicative of how warm the 97-98 super El Nino winter was. 

Of course that was the second year for the ski shop I had just moved into a new building. It didn't snow and things were worse than touch and go until a friend helped me out and we turned it into a mt bike shop in March. I think the local ski area, Thunder Ridge, had a season total of about 15" and that included 2 sleet storms. 

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5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Looks like some snow in parts of Northeast Pa.

Parts of the region, especially north and west of NYC, could see some snow showers and flurries overnight.

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