EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I don't doubt we get into a better period. Just concerned about the duration. Want a flip rather than a 2 week current pattern reload which seems probable given the Pacific SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Geez, I need anti depressants after reading page after page about 60 degree warmth. Is anybody even mildly interested in what happens late Tuesday/Tuesday night besides snow88? There is a legit chance of a at least a light snow event especially north and west. For the northern folks on this board NWS Albany is saying 2-4 possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Geez, I need anti depressants after reading page after page about 60 degree warmth. Is anybody even mildly interested in what happens late Tuesday/Tuesday night besides snow88? There is a legit chance of a at least a light snow event especially north and west. For the northern folks on this board NWS Albany is saying 2-4 possible. Will take it in a Heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Zelocita Weather said: Looks like a decent light snow event for most in region this week Per 85% of the posters. January is toast. mt holly nws afd actually Discusses snow in the interior sections this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 40 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Geez, I need anti depressants after reading page after page about 60 degree warmth. Is anybody even mildly interested in what happens late Tuesday/Tuesday night besides snow88? There is a legit chance of a at least a light snow event especially north and west. For the northern folks on this board NWS Albany is saying 2-4 possible. I'd take it but not much is working out lately....remember how tonight was snow a few days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I'd take it but not much is working out lately....remember how tonight was snow a few days ago? Nah, this weekend was never going to be snow. Only model that showed any real snow was Euro for a few runs and then it corrected. At least it's something to watch before the warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 18z NAM is actually showing a few inches of snow for the coast tuesday afternoon/evening. Other models aren't as cold, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 18z NAM is actually showing a few inches of snow for the coast tuesday afternoon/evening. Other models aren't as cold, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 NURSE: No change in the patient's condition since last week DOCTOR! DOCTOR: This patient is Dead! Report to my office at once Nurse!!!!!!!!!!!! So the patient was not dead after all? Just a drug induced coma!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Nah, this weekend was never going to be snow. Only model that showed any real snow was Euro for a few runs and then it corrected. At least it's something to watch before the warm up. My p&c added some snow in before the precip pulls out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, CIK62 said: NURSE: No change in the patient's condition since last week DOCTOR! DOCTOR: This patient is Dead! Report to my office at once Nurse!!!!!!!!!!!! Man every winter on that, expect 2008 locally, was bad lol. Terrible pattern for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 The trend on this system Tuesday has been south but 18z GFS takes it way south and east. We all get bubkus on this run, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Light rain and drizzle gave way to fog as temperatures rose into the lower 50s this afternoon. Two photos: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Ensembles are quite wet, the active Pacific jet will keep feeding us moisture. It's like a tropical pattern in January. Places like Newark could make a run on a 60 degree dewpoint. But that 68 dewpoint record during the January 1998 super El Niño is probably safe. Highest January dewpoints at Newark 68...1998 62....2018....1972 61...2007...1993...1975 60...2005...1972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: Places like Newark could make a run on a 60 degree dewpoint. But that 68 dewpoint record during the January 1998 super El Niño is probably safe. Highest January dewpoints at Newark 68...1998 62....2018....1972 61...2007...1993...1975 60...2005...1972 68 dp in January this far north is insane!! Indicative of how warm the 97-98 super El Nino winter was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Temperatures rose into the lower 50s across the New York Metro Area and nearby suburbs today. New York City will very likely have a mean temperature of 40° or above during the first week of the month. Since 1869, there were 23 cases when the first week of January had a mean temperature of 40° or above in New York City. In 17 (74%), January wound up warmer than normal and in 12 (52%), January had a mean temperature of 35° or above. The average monthly temperature for January for all 23 cases was 36.0° (median temperature: 35.6°). A short-duration cold shot is possible after the first week of January. A small window of opportunity for at least some snowfall in the region and especially across central/upstate New York and New England could exist until around January 10. Based on the forecast strongly positive AO, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first 10 days of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables). Such a scenario does not preclude the possibility of a light snow event across parts of the region during this timeframe, particularly prior to January 10. Afterward, a tendency for ridging with warmer than normal temperatures prevailing will very likely develop during the latter part of the second week of the month and persist through at least mid-month. Afterward, the progression of the MJO and state of the teleconnections will determine the pattern evolution for the second half of the month. Right now, there is strong consensus between the EPS and GEFS that the PNA will remain negative to strongly negative past mid-month. That typically translates in warm anomalies in the Middle Atlantic region. For the January 16-31, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature for New York City and Philadelphia was 32.2° and 32.1° respectively. When the PNA was negative, those values were 34.2° and 34.1° respectively. The coldest mean temperatures for PNA- periods occurred when the EPO and AO were both negative. The warmest occurred when the EPO and AO were both positive. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +11.50 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.040. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 12, several periods of warming appear likely to develop in the upper stratosphere and approach or reach 5 mb over the next 10 days. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively muted following the first week of the month except in the upper stratosphere where it will trigger the warming principally above 5 mb. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 3, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.331 (RMM). The January 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.512. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 79% probability of a warmer than normal January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Places like Newark could make a run on a 60 degree dewpoint. But that 68 dewpoint record during the January 1998 super El Niño is probably safe. Highest January dewpoints at Newark 68...1998 62....2018....1972 61...2007...1993...1975 60...2005...1972 the trend during the past few years has been for dewpoints to increase right up to verification time so i wonder if there's a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 42 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: 68 dp in January this far north is insane!! Indicative of how warm the 97-98 super El Nino winter was. Of course that was the second year for the ski shop I had just moved into a new building. It didn't snow and things were worse than touch and go until a friend helped me out and we turned it into a mt bike shop in March. I think the local ski area, Thunder Ridge, had a season total of about 15" and that included 2 sleet storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Looks like some snow in parts of Northeast Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, lee59 said: Looks like some snow in parts of Northeast Pa. Parts of the region, especially north and west of NYC, could see some snow showers and flurries overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I wonder if that big cutter will verify. GFS has very strong sw winds and 60s next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Euro has accumulating snow next week for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 29 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro has accumulating snow next week for the coast 88 I am at the point where I am not sure if I am happy to read this because I will be sad when it does not happen---I am just hating ALL the long range models lately they have been so unreliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Euro has accumulating snow next week for the coast I am skeptical considering the Euro's performance lately but it does seem to have some support from the GEFS/GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 WOW at the 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: WOW at the 06z NAM. That’s a huge quick 6 hour hit of heavy snow on the 6z nam. GFS looked a little better at 0z run and so did the euro, cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 8 hours ago, lee59 said: Looks like some snow in parts of Northeast Pa. around an inch in my other home in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: I am skeptical considering the Euro's performance lately but it does seem to have some support from the GEFS/GEM. whats up with the Euro anyway? is this all because of that "upgrade"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Euro has heavy precip but some is mixed here in the city. Good thing looks like this will happen during the early hours so the sun will minimize the warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 18 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: WOW at the 06z NAM. SWFE? Looks like a quick hit of snow before either changing to rain or if we're lucky ending as a period of drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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