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New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01


dryslot
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13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My initial thoughts vs guidance is go long ice and sell rain/snow from BDL up to SNH. 
 

sleet favored from ORH to DAW. Freezing rain favored from ORH to BDL. 
 

SNH to ORH gets thumped on the front end with a few inches of snow...

This was an ice storm look since D8 ;)  lol... but yeah.  I'm looking at ALB's NAM grid and the model's capping a +5C 800 mb layer over an isothermal 0C temperature curve ... over eastern NY ?!  zomb... Meanwhile, the Euro ...being inside D4 mind us, is showing rising fresh, new, polar high pressure atmospheric cold mass into D.E.M. ...

Btw, given the synoptic indicators ... NWS will need to expand that watch all the way to I-95 over eastern zones...probably down into N RI at some point.  It is unclear why they have not included those areas anyway, other than - I guess - trying to out-think the models, but I suspect more likely there is a dearth of local studies/climatology unique to this region, scaffolding their forecast philosophy. When there are big, fresh, new polar highs arriving/wedging from eastern Ontario, such as that that's being indicated by the most trustworthy guidance at this particular time range... mmm, I read their discussion to be fair, and frankly it does not translate like they are self-reliant in the 'existential' concepts, and more so like they sought consensus with surrounding offices - which I'm sure is protocol and is fine. But it's interesting that with a bigger of pool of brains in that discussion, one would think one of those mind-pans would have instructed a hand-waving, and honed the concepts of ageostrophy/"barrier jets" and that there is less likely an E turning of the wind at the surface Sunday night.  good luck!

I could be wrong, ...and it's probably a tedious critique ...considering no one outside this social media will ever be made aware this missive was composed...and, we don't matter, and, no one gives a shit anyway...  But for the virtue of wasting my time, I felt it worth to mention  :axe:

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Most of the meaningful precip is snow here with a brief period of IP at the end of part 1 and beginning of part 2 as the midlevels try to cool back down. 1.25-1.50" QPF will result in quite a mess. One little bump NE with warmer H8 air and we're talking half sleet and half snow. I think that's the route I'm leaning with a period of snow, solid pelting for awhile, and then we'll end as snow as the secondary begins to pick up.

Watches should fly mid day

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This was an ice storm look since D8 ;)  lol... but yeah.  I'm looking at ALB's NAM grid and the model's capping a +5C 800 mb layer over an isothermal 0C temperature curve ... over eastern NY ?!  zomb... Meanwhile, the Euro ...being inside D4 mind us, is showing rising fresh, new, polar high pressure atmospheric cold mass into D.E.M. ...

Btw, given the synoptic indicators ... NWS will need to expand that watch all the way to I-95 over eastern zones...probably down into N RI at some point.  It is unclear why they have not included those areas anyway, other than - I guess - trying to out-think the models, but I suspect more likely there is a dearth of local studies/climatology unique to this region, scaffolding their forecast philosophy. When there are big, fresh, new polar highs arriving/wedging from eastern Ontario, such as that that's being indicated by the most trustworthy guidance at this particular time range... mmm, I read their discussion to be fair, and frankly it does not translate like they are self-reliant in the 'existential' concepts, and more so like they sought consensus with surrounding offices - which I'm sure is protocol and is fine. But it's interesting that with a bigger of pool of brains in that discussion, one of those mind-pans didn't instruct a hand-waving and hone the concept of ageostrophy/"barrier jets" and that there is less likely an E turning of the wind at the surface Sunday night. 

I could be wrong, ...and it's probably a tedious critique ...considering no one outside this social media will ever be made aware this missive was composed...and, we don't matter, and, no one gives a shit anyway...  But for the virtue of wasting my time, I felt it worth to mention  :axe:

You’ll likely see them convert to ice storm warnings south and west ORH

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ll likely see them convert to ice storm warnings south and west ORH

They should go with a watch " a little " farther south and east of present, with the perfunctory AFD statement/turn of phrase included that southern and eastern zones will likely be converted to Advisories, but we'll hold off Advisories for now, as a good bit of this event will be taking place in the 4th period...  or words to that affect. 

So, no - not what you're glorifying

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

They should go with a watch " a little " farther south and east of present, with the perfunctory AFD statement/turn of phrase included that southern and eastern zones will likely be converted to Advisories, but we'll hold off Advisories for now, as a good bit of this event will be taking place in the 4th period...  or words to that affect. 

So, no - not what you're glorifying

With over 1/2 “ of ice. Yes , they’ll convert to ice storm warnings 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GYX has more frozen in the expected snowfall totals versus the high end map. Not sure what happened there. Toilet backed up again?

image.pngimage.png

The last few events there maps have been messed up, When you would toggle the point and range tab it would have the previous map on one of the tabs and the latest map on the other

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With over 1/2 “ of ice. Yes , they’ll convert to ice storm warnings 

Well... yeah, if the situation should ever arise where that is more clearly likely, they probably would ... plus, when it is time to do so.

Neither of which is now - you do realize that NWS typically does not issue warnings for 3rd and 4th period events save for rare scenarios?  ... just checkin'    

But for now 1/2" of accretion does not look like a slam dunk for you ...sorry.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Those watch maps sort of take away from what could be a real impact in NE MA. I understand the watch is for ice, but like a few mets I know said, it sort of undermines the impact there. 

I think so out in the farther SW burbs of Boston too... but that's just me - agreed in general ... 

 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This was an ice storm look since D8 ;)  lol... but yeah.  I'm looking at ALB's NAM grid and the model's capping a +5C 800 mb layer over an isothermal 0C temperature curve ... over eastern NY ?!  zomb... Meanwhile, the Euro ...being inside D4 mind us, is showing rising fresh, new, polar high pressure atmospheric cold mass into D.E.M. ...

Btw, given the synoptic indicators ... NWS will need to expand that watch all the way to I-95 over eastern zones...probably down into N RI at some point.  It is unclear why they have not included those areas anyway, other than - I guess - trying to out-think the models, but I suspect more likely there is a dearth of local studies/climatology unique to this region, scaffolding their forecast philosophy. When there are big, fresh, new polar highs arriving/wedging from eastern Ontario, such as that that's being indicated by the most trustworthy guidance at this particular time range... mmm, I read their discussion to be fair, and frankly it does not translate like they are self-reliant in the 'existential' concepts, and more so like they sought consensus with surrounding offices - which I'm sure is protocol and is fine. But it's interesting that with a bigger of pool of brains in that discussion, one would think one of those mind-pans would have instructed a hand-waving, and honed the concepts of ageostrophy/"barrier jets" and that there is less likely an E turning of the wind at the surface Sunday night.  good luck!

I could be wrong, ...and it's probably a tedious critique ...considering no one outside this social media will ever be made aware this missive was composed...and, we don't matter, and, no one gives a shit anyway...  But for the virtue of wasting my time, I felt it worth to mention  :axe:

Without really digging into this, the ageostrophic flow has a significant easterly component which should act to warm the boundary layer well above freezing, in those areas IMO. The coastal low gets going too late to prevent that, as I see it. Zooming out, I think the surface front has that classic “kink” look following the northern Apps, where we get significant cold air damming down to BDL but mid to upper 30’s points East, up to BOS. That’s my thoughts for now anyway.

Regardless I agree, sig ice is the big threat,  with highest confidence from BDL to ORH. 

 

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Without really digging into this, the ageostrophic flow has a significant easterly component which should act to warm the boundary layer well above freezing, in those areas IMO. The coastal low gets going too late to prevent that, as I see it. Zooming out, I think the surface front has that classic “kink” look following the northern Apps, where we get significant cold air damming down to BDL but mid to upper 30’s points East, up to BOS. That’s my thoughts for now anyway.

Regardless I agree, sig ice is the big threat,  with highest confidence from BDL to ORH. 

 

Not sure I agree there...  It'll be interesting to case this one and see :)    ...  I bet you there is even a pseudo-tendency for a CF ...not super discrete, but amorphous?  Such that you'll find that once the barrier sets ups, the atmosphere will use it to drain the pressure discontinuity from D.E.M ...which is being fed by a near stationary "fresh" cold source of +PP N of Maine ...and, it will not be impeded by any east flow ... The other aspect is that even if the wind did turn more E and punch enough warmth clear to western Middlesex County, which has never happened under these circumstances...the air mass arriving on that trajectory is not "stagnated" oceanic air - it's also curvilinearly coming from that same cold source up there... That matters thermodynamically in subtle ways.

I mean, these are my experience as a Met growing up in eastern Massivetwoshits over the last 35 years of my life...  Now, that does not attest as to the quality and fulfillment of that life, ..just the weather-related peregrinations it has offered along the humiliating, crushingly lonely journey

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a Pelletfest in BOS. Like -6C at 900mb. 

Know what'd be cool.. ?

I'd like to see an accurate ( no doubt, someone now is going to either miss the adjective 'accurate,' or think accurate applies to them, and level cran-up drawing of it at us now...) reanalysis of the 1920's ice storm that occurred to historic proportions in SNE.  I'm pretty sure substantive icing took place right to the coast in that one.  I've read weather-science 'attempted' accounts and they did speak of having a polar high over eastern Ontario - at least in some semblance, that specific part rings a bell. 

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I just don't see this being a huge area of ice-impact.  Speaking for SNE, I'm thinking sleet-fest anywhere north of the Pike.  That will progress toward ice somewhere south of the pike.  Is it between the Pike and northern CT or perhaps even that will be ip and the ice will be more sort of south of 84/north of the Merit deal.  I'm thinking Ray's map, but shift it 30 miles south.

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