dryslot Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I think closer to 3:1 usually? But, if it’s the sleet combines with those crap crystals that occur when the airmass aloft is cold, it’s sometimes closer to 5:1 I think. I would have to defer to folks that get it often to know what they are in general, I don't see much of it here in most cases its a quick change to IP then rain usually being close to the coast, But i seem to get an IP/SN mix moreso then just IP but i think it has been in the 3:1 range when we do just IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. We eagerly await your first-call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: We eagerly await your first-call map. The final call map was issued last night , so what’s done is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m making a forecast on what I think will happen. I do not see sleet being an issue SW of ORH. There could be some , but for CT this is big zr to me. Even for you . Your angry responses on twitter are funny Regardless of what you post on here, I will say your FB posts are usually reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: We eagerly await your first-call map. I issued First Call last night...Final tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The final call map was issued last night , so what’s done is done That was actually his first-call (I thought it was his first-guess, though I'm not sure what that difference is)> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Lot of post holiday anger in here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure I agree there... It'll be interesting to case this one and see ... I bet you there is even a pseudo-tendency for a CF ...not super discrete, but amorphous? Such that you'll find that once the barrier sets ups, the atmosphere will use it to drain the pressure discontinuity from D.E.M ...which is being fed by a near stationary "fresh" cold source of +PP N of Maine ...and, it will not be impeded by any east flow ... The other aspect is that even if the wind did turn more E and punch enough warmth clear to western Middlesex County, which has never happened under these circumstances...the air mass arriving on that trajectory is not "stagnated" oceanic air - it's also curvilinearly coming from that same cold source up there... That matters thermodynamically in subtle ways. I mean, these are my experience as a Met growing up in eastern Massivetwoshits over the last 35 years of my life... Now, that does not attest as to the quality and fulfillment of that life, ..just the weather-related peregrinations it has offered along the humiliating, crushingly lonely journey Strongly agree with this. Where I disagree is the antecedent airmass is average at best, and late December climo near the coast is not nearly as favorable as late February for this, with warmer SST’s. It doesn’t take much of a low level easterly wind to send BL temps into the mid 30’s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 This area as usual tough to figure out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Lot of post holiday anger in here. Much sadness over lack of snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/protracted-nye-mixed-bag.html FYI for those who asked... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, jbenedet said: Strongly agree with this. Where I disagree is the antecedent airmass is average at best, and late December climo near the coast is not nearly as favorable as late February for this, with warmer SST’s. It doesn’t take much of a low level easterly wind to send BL temps into the mid 30’s. The SST's would be cooler than normal if it weren't for BOS* departures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: FYI for those who asked... Newburyport ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: That was actually his first-call (I thought it was his first-guess, though I'm not sure what that difference is)> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Newburyport ftw? I think so, but will re evaluate tomorrow night for Final Call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think so, but will re evaluate tomorrow night for Final Call. Tippy tip of MA there definitely best spot for snow, although you will be colder where you are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 SPC href pretty icy in CT. Caveat is that 48 hrs out probably pushes how useful it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Fill the bath tubs! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 46 minutes ago, eduggs said: It looks like elevation will be key for areas that get ice. Pretty steep low level lapse rates on the model soundings. Near freezing temps. in low elevation areas will probably limit accretion. But up 1000ft+ with surface temps. in the upper 20s will start to become a problem. Actually for big problems you'd probably want to be up above 1500 or 2000ft at least in SNE. Ya I agree to a degree with this I believe elevations will see the biggest icing (in SNE) outside of NW MA (greenfield ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tippy tip of MA there definitely best spot for snow, although you will be colder where you are. Merrimack Mass to Amesbury could see significant snows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Merrimack Mass to Amesbury could see significant snows Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya I agree to a degree with this I believe elevations will see the biggest icing (in SNE) outside of NW MA (greenfield ) I would really like to avoid an ice storm so hoping for some shifts in modeling as we get closer to go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like you’ll get sleet too. You’ll probably get some 34F sleet for awhile Monday. lots of convection modeled too with this down south. I don’t expect the repeat we had two weeks ago, but we’ll need to watch how it unfolds. Interesting thanks. Hopefully any sleet is minor and we just do a cold rain here. Would rather not be called in for plowing and salting 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fpassa71 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Hello everyone. Hoping to watch east coast under snow Igreet all of you from Milan - Italy. Now clear and 34°F fabio 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: FYI for those who asked... Like this in general. Fits my thinking. Only major difference is would have much more East/West gradient with the “big ice threat” area, down to HFD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Reasonable thoughts there Watcher. GL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Strongly agree with this. Where I disagree is the antecedent airmass is average at best, and late December climo near the coast is not nearly as favorable as late February for this, with warmer SST’s. It doesn’t take much of a low level easterly wind to send BL temps into the mid 30’s. Ironically... if perhaps for my own lapse of communication, I am not disagreeing with antecedent air mass point. Altho..we are getting DP recession now, and it's deep-ish'er in the atmosphere than folks may think, based purely upon the absolutely stunning sensible appeal out there right now - hope you guys actually appreciate. Beautiful out there...my goodness. Anyway, we shouldn't be fooled by the appeal - this is a new CAA and typical in overnight fropas, the CAA lags during the morning, so we probably won't know or get a sense to the skin what this is like until the sun kisses the horizon and it gets tit-nipply fairly quickly. It may sound 'bush' to rely on that but ...heh, sometimes it helps to be kissed by the girl to believe she digs you. As far as this system: the details show ... there are pressure rises happening, particularly in the Euro you can see this ( perhaps the 24 hour freebie intervals in a twist, actually helps elucidate this phenomenon), over Maine about 1/3rd (~) of the way into the event. When that happens I promise people...there will be a pulse of ageostrophic acceleration taking place E of the mean elevation curve of the Berks-White Mountain cordillera. That is going to impart the lower DP air and that's it - game over Now, this is based upon the total synoptic players in the models ... which by that bold italic is thus predicated on the assumption that they are oh ...80% correct in the totality of this thing's evolution. If these structural components verify to distractingly ...then we gotta field a bunch of miss-guided criticisms I know - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, no easy day it seems. I was just telling @SR Airglow I'm thinking of three zones for CT. 1. A stripe of 25.-.50 for the NW hills, up just north of BDL, and into the eastern CT hills. Not really expecting widespread .50 ZR but using that at the upper bound currently. With the way I sketched it I'm a bit worried the zone is too large. 2. A stripe of .10 - .25 for southern Litchfield up through the area between HFD and BDL and east through UConn country and Ginxy. 3. A stripe for glaze through .10 from northern Danbury through Berg and central/eastern CT. Hills seem pretty good for some decent icing IMO but I think the CT valley may struggle on the lack of a northerly surface component. Here's an averaged 3k NAM sounding between approximately Hartford and Meriden at 06z on Monday. Very close... That's an interestingly discrete attempt by the finer meshed meso model type, to assess elevation/ridges and hills being high enough to poke over the blanket of BD'ing cold drain like that. But, I bet that's error ...not so much for that handling - valleys most certainly will be the last to scour out...but, because the uber finite grid is local scaled and is probably not seeing the total weight/potential of the +PP over eastern Ontario - modulate this product for more mass input would be my suggestion and that probably submerges those 1800' hill tops in the cold slab. But also, give the model a chance ... I can't imagine a scenario where a 48+ hour forecast is really in any NAM-derivative's wheelhouse. It may get that low level cold slab thicker in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Euro seems warmer to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just east of the northern Apps the low level easterly component will not occur in a situation of cold air damming, the mesoscale pressure field will trump the synoptic flow. Some may need to open up the textbooks, for reference, but what’s being modeled as easterly wind in parts of SNE will, in reality, be a NNE wind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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