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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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Morning Folks..

Another beautiful Day on Tap for the Coast! 

77/54 Currently 54F..

(Loving this Pattern Change)!

Clear Skies, No wind(s) to speak of..

Well outta the North @ 2mph..

Your current Beach Conditions..

Water Temp is still at a toasty 84F

Winds light WNW @ 4 mph..

Waves/swell, 1ft and the Ocean looks like a lake..  ;) 

 

Honestly, This September, with the Pattern change, feels like, the "Fall" Weather when, I was Young & growing up in the 70's..

Starting school and there was a chill in the air in the mornings..

Unlike the past several, Sept. & Octobers, (like last year) We were still being "BAKED" under 90F+ temps and Dew/Humidity's near 90% ..

This is certainly a VERY Welcome respite..

Lordy, I'm almost tempted to turn on the HEAT this Morning! 

 

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3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Are these water temps accurate? 

9B665194-6252-4068-9AA6-4503FB3B1484.png

Just saw a twitter thread regarding this. It looks like those anomaly’s are correct. I think the number of TC’s + a few fronts have helped to size the water temps down a bit. Hopefully a good sign in regards to RI prospects for future storms.

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2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Just saw a twitter thread regarding this. It looks like those anomaly’s are correct. I think the number of TC’s + a few fronts have helped to size the water temps down a bit. Hopefully a good sign in regards to RI prospects for future storms.

If we could get this to continue and enlarge during snow season, we might be able to mute that southeast ridge and WAA.

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On 9/23/2020 at 7:28 AM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Get your furnaces tuned up

 

 

 

 

CD76FE3E-5418-464B-9515-BFEDA6DFAE13.png

Dear Old Man Winter.........Please deliver this look with a southern stream tap in Jan........Thank you, your friends the se crew  :wub:  

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Well y’all wedding went off without a hitch! Rained Friday before, a lot, but elected to forego a tented ceremony for Saturday instead opting for a (cheaper) tent for the cocktail hour area. Probably a good call as even though the rain had stopped well before the wedding I’m sure it would’ve been wet where everyone was walking around. Have been honeymooning in Antigua and just got home to a beautiful fall day, though it looks like I missed the really cool weather. 46 here this morning, felt amazing especially after having been in the tropics for 8 days! Got to witness the precursor to Delta roll through and actually had some wind damage (broken trees, palm fronds everywhere, and furniture blown into pools) as some heavy squalls pushed through for a couple days. Probably had some 50-60 mph gusts just with the tropical wave moving through! Don’t worry, 80% of the trip was beautiful weather and my wife understands my weather obsession and that I enjoyed watching the heavy weather push through a few times! Hard to be down due to any weather when you’re in a place like that! Back home, looks like we will actually have a fall this year! Leaves have begun turning at my house (maples, dogwoods) and the air has remained off for 2 weeks now. Delta’s remnants factor into the forecast this week though they should be rocketing through. Looks like a return to fall next week after this brief warmup. Can’t wait!

Thank you for you all who reached out with the wedding planning on tent decision. It all worked out and was a beautiful day and perfect weekend! 

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5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Well y’all wedding went off without a hitch! Rained Friday before, a lot, but elected to forego a tented ceremony for Saturday instead opting for a (cheaper) tent for the cocktail hour area. Probably a good call as even though the rain had stopped well before the wedding I’m sure it would’ve been wet where everyone was walking around. Have been honeymooning in Antigua and just got home to a beautiful fall day, though it looks like I missed the really cool weather. 46 here this morning, felt amazing especially after having been in the tropics for 8 days! Got to witness the precursor to Delta roll through and actually had some wind damage (broken trees, palm fronds everywhere, and furniture blown into pools) as some heavy squalls pushed through for a couple days. Probably had some 50-60 mph gusts just with the tropical wave moving through! Don’t worry, 80% of the trip was beautiful weather and my wife understands my weather obsession and that I enjoyed watching the heavy weather push through a few times! Hard to be down due to any weather when you’re in a place like that! Back home, looks like we will actually have a fall this year! Leaves have begun turning at my house (maples, dogwoods) and the air has remained off for 2 weeks now. Delta’s remnants factor into the forecast this week though they should be rocketing through. Looks like a return to fall next week after this brief warmup. Can’t wait!

Thank you for you all who reached out with the wedding planning on tent decision. It all worked out and was a beautiful day and perfect weekend! 

Congratulations and best wishes.

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This would be a massive issue for the beaches, this wind field is the size of Texas and I imagine the waves and beach erosion would be insane on NC coast.......the GFS has been pretty consistent with this storm the last day or so but it is admittedly way out in fantasy land.....though the GFS did pretty good with the notion of there being a Delta way out in fantasy land too.

gfs_mslp_wind_seus_58.thumb.png.cea5d82c502f770e6d9a07f6ad88ffd1.png

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UUUggghhh!  Bermuda high re-establishes next week.  Hope this is not a permanent fixture this winter.  Unfortunately, they can be for La Nina.  Good news is ridge looks to hold over the west for the next two weeks.  Lack of west coast ridge has killed us last couple of years....

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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Day 10 is very close to a Hazel scenario with caribbean tropic trouble and a potential negative tilt through/ cutoff over the Ohio Valley. Something to watch at least.

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9 hours ago, HKY_WX said:

Day 10 is very close to a Hazel scenario with caribbean tropic trouble and a potential negative tilt through/ cutoff over the Ohio Valley. Something to watch at least.

Hey Brandon, Are you going to do a winter forecast? (hope so) :)  Hope you are doing well!!! 

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First truly arctic air making an appearance across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains later this week.  Highs in the low teens.....:D.  Didn't Mack move to Iowa?  Looks like he could see some cold days as well.  

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Mack did move to Iowa and I hope he stops by the SE forum a few times to share details of his winter with us.  I have a feeling he will miss the SC warmups and rue the plains winter.

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5 hours ago, Buckethead said:

So I'm curious...what does the NHC name tropical cyclones after we've gone through the Greek list?

There is 24 letters in the Greek Alphabet. I highly doubt that will happen.

 

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