jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Based on the GFS and Euro runs early this morning, the March 4th system would be more cutter like leaving us warm and facing more a severe weather threat than any kind of wintry precip. After that the pattern goes to crap once again. Prior to this, there are a few weak waves that die as they cross the NC mountains during the brief cold shot. The mountains may pick up a couple of light snow events with those disturbances. 

Winter was over 3 months ago! I’m pretty happy with how winter turned out

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RAH this afternoon ~ 2/24

 pair of strong shortwaves rotating through the base of the long 
wave trough; one Friday, followed by a stronger, secondary wave on 
Saturday, will need to be monitored for the potential for some very 
light precip amounts across the area. Given the modified cP airmass 
that will be in place, favorable nocturnal timing could allow for 
some very light/trace amounts of frozen precip.
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12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That Saturday wave is a little more robust on 0z GFS for NC/SC! All in!

Saturday is Feb 29, which is basically March. And anything frozen in March outside of the mtns is gravy.

So yea. Getting 1 snowflake on Sat would be a win. :snowing:

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34 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Wow, according to that map I would have been in either the 2-4 or 4-8 in stripe for MBY in the upstate. Caesar's Head would have been in the 8-12. I would have been fairly young but I have no memory of that system. I do seem to have a vague memory of a third big snow in the 87/88 years so maybe that was it? 

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40 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Wow, according to that map I would have been in either the 2-4 or 4-8 in stripe for MBY in the upstate. Caesar's Head would have been in the 8-12. I would have been fairly young but I have no memory of that system. I do seem to have a vague memory of a third big snow in the 87/88 years so maybe that was it? 

There was snow in the Upstate with this system but it was mostly cold rain literally 33 and rain.

I think most of NW SC from Northern GVL, Pickens, & Oconee counties saw a dusting to as much as a foot in the highest peaks along the border.

Just into NC it was a completely different story.

It was a legitimate blizzard.

WLOS has its tower on Mt Pisgah had over 2 feet.

It was an amazing storm in the extreme western sections of WNC.

Of course JAN of 87 & 88 we had 1 foot plus totals at GSP.

The 88 storm was amazingly cold.

As a senior that year we missed around 2 to 3 weeks of school.

When we finally went back there was still snow on the road.

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1 hour ago, lilj4425 said:

Sure is quiet in here. You could hear a pin drop. 

When the crickets start chirping, the forum goes mute

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50s and 60s starting Sunday will keep the grass growing all the way to the VA border.  I already mowed once last weekend!  So for most of the forum spring is springing, crickets may already be chirping and this winter is in the books.  I saw snow twice and they were both low impact events.  I would rate that a C+ on the type of winter I wanted to see and a solid F on what was forecasted for the triad.

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Well I leave near Columbia SC, cut my grass a month ago and only saw sleet once.  For Columbia this winter ranks a solid B.

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1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

50s and 60s starting Sunday will keep the grass growing all the way to the VA border.  I already mowed once last weekend!  So for most of the forum spring is springing, crickets may already be chirping and this winter is in the books.  I saw snow twice and they were both low impact events.  I would rate that a C+ on the type of winter I wanted to see and a solid F on what was forecasted for the triad.

I can't believe I had to cut my grass a week ago, the earliest I ever cut my grass was the end of March, this is crazy.

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On 2/25/2020 at 11:21 PM, Billypg70 said:

There was snow in the Upstate with this system but it was mostly cold rain literally 33 and rain.

I think most of NW SC from Northern GVL, Pickens, & Oconee counties saw a dusting to as much as a foot in the highest peaks along the border.

Just into NC it was a completely different story.

It was a legitimate blizzard.

WLOS has its tower on Mt Pisgah had over 2 feet.

It was an amazing storm in the extreme western sections of WNC.

Of course JAN of 87 & 88 we had 1 foot plus totals at GSP.

The 88 storm was amazingly cold.

As a senior that year we missed around 2 to 3 weeks of school.

When we finally went back there was still snow on the road.

I'll always remember that storm, I delivered mail in north Asheville and that was a Saturday April 4; will never forget it the day before we were wearing our postal shorts like 75.  That next day I tried to deliver my mail and even with chains on I had to come back to the station there were so many cars out joy riding in the snow they had the roads blocked and I couldn't get thru on my route, every where I tried to go the road was blocked.  We had around 12-14 inches the best I can remember, Heavy and Wet snow I mean. I'll never forget it.

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24 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

I can't believe I had to cut my grass a week ago, the earliest I ever cut my grass was the end of March, this is crazy.

I cut grass mid to late march last year.

I have yet to cut it this season.

Only wild onions are growing in my yard.

Had 3 snows,

Not one was more than a dusting.

A couple could've been several inches had it been colder at the surface.

I give this winter an F

2012 was the only one worse...

No snow at all.

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Prolonged warmth, only 1 system to track, absolutely no front end thumps or even minimal sleet or freezing rain events, 1 advisory, constant rain and humidity... 2.75" of snow from one system that stayed on the ground for 2 days salvaged a D imo. Technically, I guess we've had worse?

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3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

50s and 60s starting Sunday will keep the grass growing all the way to the VA border.  I already mowed once last weekend!  So for most of the forum spring is springing, crickets may already be chirping and this winter is in the books.  I saw snow twice and they were both low impact events.  I would rate that a C+ on the type of winter I wanted to see and a solid F on what was forecasted for the triad.

Depends on the source though.  Isotherm did very well with his winter forecast (mine was terrible).

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Without a doubt, this was one of the worst mean winter patterns of all time.  In terms of temperatures...for sites with a long climo record around the southeast, Raleigh seems to be the one with the warmest ranking where so far it has been the 3rd warmest since 1887.

3D2tcCy.png

lJOEVnT.png

ZYmwIqd.png

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Very strong +AO in the stratosphere here (1hPa to 100hPa) of late.  Also shown is the coupled +AO in the stratosphere and troposphere since January, and forecast to continue, which suggests a mild March is in the offing.  Good by me, as spring is the only season of the 4 that I want temperatures to be above normal.

Mk7MaJV.png

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10 minutes ago, griteater said:

Without a doubt, this was one of the worst mean winter patterns of all time.  In terms of temperatures...for sites with a long climo record around the southeast, Raleigh seems to be the one with the warmest ranking where so far it has been the 3rd warmest since 1887.

3D2tcCy.png

lJOEVnT.png

ZYmwIqd.png

Our friends in NE GA really taint the generic terrible winter across the sub forum... Thanks for nothing guys!

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19 minutes ago, griteater said:

Without a doubt, this was one of the worst mean winter patterns of all time.  In terms of temperatures...for sites with a long climo record around the southeast, Raleigh seems to be the one with the warmest ranking where so far it has been the 3rd warmest since 1887.

3D2tcCy.png

lJOEVnT.png

ZYmwIqd.png

You know it was bad when you can see the warm nose on a winter snowfall percent of mean graphic :lmao:

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