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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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Timing doesn't look bad to me for the western upstate. Looks like flakes will start to fly around 10:00am. And we all know these events typically show up a few hours ahead of time. Ideal timing for the lake lanier area though, 8:00am-10:00am. Really starting to think they get a couple inches.

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25 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Light snow atm

Per radar, looks like it might be snowing some at Ceaser's Head right now. 

17 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

 

Screen Shot 2020-02-07 at 10.41.21 AM.png

Verbatim this shows snow all the way down to Abbeville and Greenwood; they don't get much these days. Just need this piece of energy to slow down once it gets here and form a trailing gulf low, then snow all night and into Sunday! And of course need BL temps to plummet to the upper 20s. :weenie:

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Based off that model, most of soundings show temps near 33-34 under snow.

Might not stick too well. But the convective nature its showing probably be big fat flakes 

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3 hours ago, Lookout said:

Yep..its weird honestly how that is usually the case.

Models insist most of it is just north of here but I think its mostly snow as far south as here per soundings...assuming it doesnt arrive too late where surface temps are a problem. Hrrr as usual is too warm at the surface if there is as much precip as advertised. . Regardless it's close enough to drive too regardless. High resolution models showing some pretty decent returns on composite imagery some decent rates arent out of the question. Other than the mountains atlanta to Gainesville could be the winner as it arrives early enough for temps to be near freezing.

Could just the nam naming us but the 12z 12 and 3km run showing up to 0.30 liquid now. 

Well this is getting me excited then. What do you think about my area in NW Forsyth? I suppose it's mainly a timing thing (and enough precip), but if we get enough precip early enough, inch or so maybe?

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4 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

RAP doesn’t like this one for Upstate SC. So for that reason, I’m out 85225D08-5194-4402-8696-F48324F377A9.png.cea8e608927815589a399458dded8b15.png

RAP is always too warm at the surface at this range. furthermore, even it shows the freezing level only few hundred feet above the ground. All that precip would certainly be falling as snow. even if it doesn't have a chance to stick.

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4 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

RAP doesn’t like this one for Upstate SC. So for that reason, I’m out 85225D08-5194-4402-8696-F48324F377A9.png.cea8e608927815589a399458dded8b15.png

I know that's not exactly what will happen but that shows NE Forsyth County GA getting heavy snow with rain for me on the NW side. I'd cry....

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7 minutes ago, ATLMet84 said:

Well this is getting me excited then. What do you think about my area in NW Forsyth? I suppose it's mainly a timing thing (and enough precip), but if we get enough precip early enough, inch or so maybe?

I think it's possible. It's going to be quick so the earlier it starts the better.

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15 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

RAP is always too warm at the surface at this range. furthermore, even it shows the freezing level only few hundred feet above the ground. All that precip would certainly be falling as snow. even if it doesn't have a chance to stick.

Hope you’re right. Nailed the last event for my area

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27 minutes ago, ATLMet84 said:

Well this is getting me excited then. What do you think about my area in NW Forsyth? I suppose it's mainly a timing thing (and enough precip), but if we get enough precip early enough, inch or so maybe?

You are in a good spot...probably one of  the best outside the mountains as it seems the only question with your location is how much precip falls...as temps at the surface and aloft are plenty cold. Given the early start time where you are you  should be at or below freezing for a good portion if it. I  would think 1 to 2 inches is a good bet.  If anyone outside the mountains do well it will be cumming, Gainesville, dawsonville, etc. 

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Someone should start a thread for this event and go ahead and curse it... JK pulling for you NE GA guys and the Upstate to squeak out something. I'd focus on the hi-res modeling with these type of systems and the most consistent model has been the NAM to the point that other models seem to be playing catch up. I lived the Cumming area for a year working with Sawnee EMC and I think that spot to Dahlonega, Franklin NC, and up towards Cesar's Head all look like a good spot to be. Boundary layer warmth is going to be hard to model in this but the upper levels are extremely favorable. I would expect at least some white rain in the upstate areas. If its in the 33-34 degree range then some slushy accumulations could occur there. Outside of the surprise snow a week ago, this is the best chance this season for several members of this sub forum. I think some 2-3 in amounts could happen in higher elevations in the areas I outlined. 

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Hope ya'll Upsate Folks cash-in, Tonight, into tomorrow..

I'll Keep your Mid-50's & Lows 60's down here in the coast for ya'll  ;)

Enjoy your snow..

WHY? I'm NOT ready for it, broken/Inop..,, water-heater & too dern Poor,, to turn the Emergency heat on with the HVAC, (Heat pump is on the fritz),, LandLord,,, (Cough-SlumLord), doesn't have $$ to fix the broken things.. So we freeze...

The 12ZGFS (and 12Z NAM) and NamNest looks intriguing  out too 18Z Saturday tomorrow.. Looks GREAT for some of you Upstate Folks (Al/SC/NC),, if it comes to pass.. 

The 12Z HRRR Only went out too 11Z tomorrow, though @ the end of the Run starts too look Promisingly in Line with the Panels I posted above.. 

 

Panelone.JPG

PanelTwo.JPG

12ZNAM.JPG

namnest.JPG

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13 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Advanced a few frames and it actually keeps the precip shield solid through central NC and south-central VA

Any thoughts on timing for RDU?

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