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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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3 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Even the Canadian and Icon shows 3-4" for much of the SE.

Good weather to be a duck.

I guess our goal in the southern mtns can be to exceed 100" of rain in a year again. Great times!!

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7 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

I guess our goal in the southern mtns can be to exceed 100" of rain in a year again. Great times!!

Sure appears that way.

This is 12z icon. Notice East TN. 

icon_apcpn_us_44.png

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12 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Sure appears that way.

This is 12z icon. Notice East TN. 

icon_apcpn_us_44.png

Unfortunately this has been the norm here for the last 3 years. I'm sure it will over perform too.

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Just something to watch after the front and storms later this week.

This is the 18z icon. Shows a piece of energy held back over Texas and potential new system along the "old" front.

The goofus has something similar  roughly 30 hours later without  significant consequence running through TN.

Much more ridging out west vs goofus. 

icon_z500_vort_us_41.pngicon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

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At this point I am starting to look to severe weather threats to chase. I have embraced the suck and it will be a long wait to see snow until next year.

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52 minutes ago, eyewall said:

At this point I am starting to look to severe weather threats to chase. I have embraced the suck and it will be a long wait to see snow until next year.

What do you think about a cold spring? Which could add to the severe chances. 

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

What do you think about a cold spring? Which could add to the severe chances. 

Oh I am confident the pattern will flip to a cold spring once it is too late for snow.

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12z GFS has the same storm,  but is a little to warm.. CMC brings up a coastal and supplies several inches of snow in the northern piedmont... right now though the CMC is by itself

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13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

2nd run in a row with a decent snow for southern VA On the CMC

Decent hit for the  I-40 / I-85 Corridor.  

gem_asnow_seus_26.png

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Just now, jjwxman said:

Decent hit for the  I-40 / I-85 Corridor.  

gem_asnow_seus_26.png

Yeah , would love to see it but right now the GFS and EURO keep the snow in the Mountains 

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Setup for Saturday night looks pretty good to me. Especially for the mountains. Just need the trough to dig a little more. Temps above the surface look good. Boundary layer may be problematic but there is still room for that to trend better. 

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6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Someone's getting blasted, as of now, we're in the cross hairs.

qpf_acc.us_ma.png

qpf_acc.us_ma.png

And not mention the severe threat, although probably limited due to the lack of instability, still that’s an absolutely insane boundary for Thursday evening. There will be elevated STP’s along and just south of that boundary. Possible triple point scenario over the I-85 corridor. 

5DA93749-A111-42B8-B461-2E8A4FEBFE93.jpeg

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I have been saying it for a while but flooding is going to become a major concern if this keeps up. After a widespread 2-5 inch rain this week it looks to be wet again next week and beyond...

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Some wild parts to the Forecast Discussion out of Greenville:

"Changes happen in earnest late Wednesday afternoon as the
forcing moves up from the SW and after sunset as the main surge
of moisture arrives. Precipitable water values are expected to
rise above 1.5 inches east of the mtns, with some guidance showing
all-time high values late Wednesday night/Thursday compared to the
climatology at FFC and GSO. Even more impressive are the moisture
and water vapor transport anomalies during that time period,
which are greater than 3 standard deviations and represent max
values in the climatology. Periods of heavy rain are likely from
late Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the atmospheric
river translates across the region accompanied by strong mid/upper
level forcing. There is the potential for 3-5 inches of rain by
the time this system exits our region early Friday morning, with
even more in the S/SW upslope areas of the mtns. A Flood Watch
seems like a foregone conclusion with the scenario presented in
the model guidance. However, the main threat will not ramp up until
Wednesday night and there remains some uncertainty about the extent
of the flood potential, so we will hold off with issuance for the
time being.

The other problem with be the severe thunderstorm potential,
the details of which continue to remain elusive as guidance shows
run-to-run inconsistency with the amount of instability. Everyone
agrees that shear will be outstanding, on the order of 50-60 kt in a
deep layer on Thursday and Thursday evening as a 60-70kt low level
jet surges NE out of the Gulf. The GFS and ECMWF have backed off
with their depiction of sfc-based CAPE, with both barely registering
100-250 J/kg. Meanwhile, the latest NAM develops better than 500
J/kg to the south of a boundary running along I-85 late Thursday
afternoon, but the 03Z SREF shows very low probability of getting
the CAPE above that level. Thus, the amount of instability continues
to be a limiting factor. Suffice to say, the best chance for severe
storms will be along and south/east of I-85, but will the mode
be a QLCS with wind damage and isolated tornadoes, or will it be
a large band of heavy rain with embedded tornadic supercells? The
cold front should cross the region late Thursday and early Friday,
bringing an end to the flood/severe threats.
Moisture wrapping around a frontal wave will keep precip chances
along the TN border into at least Friday morning, while colder
air moves in from the NW. Precip will change to snow showers in
the upslope areas along the TN border, with some potential for a
minor snow accumulation at high elevations. This activity should
wind down by sunset on Friday."

 

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1 hour ago, SnowDeac said:

Looks like nothing but Apps/lakes cutters as far as the eye can see. Punt til early March?

Just punt the whole damn winter like I did back in early January and people called me crazy. It'll save you a lot of headache. It's over!

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14 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Just punt the whole damn winter like I did back in early January and people called me crazy. It'll save you a lot of headache. It's over!

I remember when some were posting snow maps for the 7th, now we're posting rain maps with rain totals looking like they should be snowfall totals instead

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I remember when some were posting snow maps for the 7th, now we're posting rain maps with rain totals looking like they should be snowfall totals instead

Hey, a satisfying heavy rain event is better than a disappointing snow bust in my book. 

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I remember when some were posting snow maps for the 7th, now we're posting rain maps with rain totals looking like they should be snowfall totals instead

And just like a snow map, the 12z GFS has cut the rain totals by two thirds (at least for the RAH area). 3.5" is now 1.25" :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Solak said:

And just like a snow map, the 12z GFS has cut the rain totals by two thirds (at least for the RAH area). 3.5" is now 1.25" :lol:

Definitely looking like the heaviest rain will be west of here. Western Piedmont/Mountains will be a solid flood event

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Yeah, it's looking like it'll be quite an event. Soggy ground and any severe wind events won't be a good mix, either.

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4 hours ago, SnowDeac said:

Looks like nothing but Apps/lakes cutters as far as the eye can see. Punt til early March?

We’re not even getting into punt formation this winter. We’re throwing pick 6’s and getting strip sacked. Maybe we can pull a late fluke after a lot of warmth like Feb ‘89

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