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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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The top image reminds me a lot of the Feb 14 map the Euro spit out the day before for me and Mack. That was supposed to be a generational storm (actually had amounts about 50% higher); had the mets going big dog, and the stinking WAA went off the charts and sleeted us to death. That was a crusher. Again, great to see potential, but hour 360? Might as well be hour 23,304. Going to be fun to have some things to watch going forward for sure though! 


Agree. I just wanted to point out how both the GFS and Euro ENS match closely for 28th/29th storm threat. Yes, over 300 hours so it’s just eye candy.


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2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

The top image reminds me a lot of the Feb 14 map the Euro spit out the day before for me and Mack. That was supposed to be a generational storm (actually had amounts about 50% higher); had the mets going big dog, and the stinking WAA went off the charts and sleeted us to death. That was a crusher. Again, great to see potential, but hour 360? Might as well be hour 23,304. Going to be fun to have some things to watch going forward for sure though! 

I had like 3-5”of sleet with a little snow in that storm.   It was a Tony special.  

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Just now, UpstateSCGamecock said:

 


Agree. I just wanted to point out how both the GFS and Euro ENS match closely for 28th/29th storm threat. Yes, over 300 hours so it’s just eye candy.


.

 

I understand, that's incredible agreement for that lead time. The Euro and GFS are normally like Republicans and Democrats, they can't agree on anything! This whole 24th-30th week should be a good period to watch going forward. 

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7 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

The top image reminds me a lot of the Feb 14 map the Euro spit out the day before for me and Mack. That was supposed to be a generational storm (actually had amounts about 50% higher); had the mets going big dog, and the stinking WAA went off the charts and sleeted us to death. That was a crusher. Again, great to see potential, but hour 360? Might as well be hour 23,304. Going to be fun to have some things to watch going forward for sure though! 

It is hard to take any model seriously when each and every week they print out single storm totals that no person alive has ever seen.

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The weekend one is gonna jump around a lot for a while I'd say. Very minor H5 changes are resulting in big surface changes. Still had the 50/50 and developing block, but the trough took off north towards the great lakes instead of digging a bit more eastward like at 18z. Even if that one misses, the 50/50 and the block could be important for the following week. 

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28th storm left the Baja cutoff low behind this time so it's not a beast like at 18z. Hopefully as we get inside day 10 we'll start to see some ensemble support consolidate around that time frame. 

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I posted this on the MA forum, but I went and looked at the latest GFS 14 day interconnections

 

EPO: strongly positive (of course..)

PNA: Goes positive (bonus)

NAO: dips negative around the 26th (surprising I know... Now it needs to stick)

AO: dips slightly negative around the 29th

 

Get the EPO to tank and we will be in good standing with an almost ideal set up

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

 

So@mackerel_sky there is a glimmer of hope

 

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15 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I posted this on the MA forum, but I went and looked at the latest GFS 14 day interconnections

 

EPO: strongly positive (of course..)

PNA: Goes positive (bonus)

NAO: dips negative around the 26th (surprising I know... Now it needs to stick)

AO: dips slightly negative around the 29th

 

Get the EPO to tank and we will be in good standing with an almost ideal set up

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

 

So@mackerel_sky there is a glimmer of hope

 

Nice thing is we don't have to be perfect this time of year. But I've always said (and I think everybody agrees) the PNA is crucial for us SE folks. When it goes negative we usually have no chance (even if the EPO is negative). **again usually... 

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1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS is very close to a good storm next weekend and the one after that....

Rain storm or snow storm, :arrowhead::lol::lol:  we hope the snow storm.  :ee:

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30 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Nice thing is we don't have to be perfect this time of year. But I've always said (and I think everybody agrees) the PNA is crucial for us SE folks. When it goes negative we usually have no chance (even if the EPO is negative). **again usually... 

Personally,  I'm a bigger fan of a -nao. 

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

I know that Snowfall has a ratio to liquid (6:1, 10:1, etc.) is ZR a 1:1 ratio with liquid?

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

I'm no met, but since ice expands a bit when it freezes, it might be 1.1:1 ratio with ZR. Probably not worth thinking about.

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I think it's 3-2/1
I'm no met, but since ice expands a bit when it freezes, it might be 1.1:1 ratio with ZR. Probably not worth thinking about.
Thanks guys, reason I asked was based off that 29th storm, I would start with 6" of snow (10:1 ratio), then get decked by 1.25" of ZR (1:1 ratio)

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Thanks guys, reason I asked was based off that 29th storm, I would start with 6" of snow (10:1 ratio), then get decked by 1.25" of ZR (1:1 ratio)

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Try that link. Good stuff in there.

 

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10 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

I had like 3-5”of sleet with a little snow in that storm.   It was a Tony special.  

Sleet sounds good and yeah, he would love it.  And, it has been a while, and I think I posted iI in the banter thread a year or so ago, and I might have missed some update, but what's the story with Tony? No word from him in years.

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Try that link. Good stuff in there.
 
Yeah it was, and go figure on the sounding I got screwed by a *100mb* thick warm nose (850mb-950mb with 5C temps), if it was not there (700mb was cold enough) it would have been pure snow. Talk about sickening, but still lots of time and wiggle room to bring it back down so not worried

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11 minutes ago, Shack said:

Sleet sounds good and yeah, he would love it.  And, it has been a while, and I think I posted iI in the banter thread a year or so ago, and I might have missed some update, but what's the story with Tony? No word from him in years.

Jan 2018 last post, funny guy for sure.

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