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Dr. Dews

January 2020 Discussion

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Mid level warmth? No?

Midlevels looked ok on the mean. Not super cold but I'd guess at minimum interior SNE NW of 95 and prob N of. PVD-HFD like is in pretty good shape on that look...but it's probably gonna change a bunch of times  

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Midlevels looked ok on the mean. Not super cold but I'd guess at minimum interior SNE NW of 95 and prob N of. PVD-HFD like is in pretty good shape on that look...but it's probably gonna change a bunch of times  

 

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Surface temps were borderline too but this far out all moot points, Plenty of other problems to work out that will address some of these either better or worse.

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Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Gonna need a bit more help for my location, not out of the cards IMO.

We're very much in the game. Until we have a clear-cut defined signal no reason to discount any potential for us 

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Just now, dryslot said:

Going ukie

See what occurs in next few frames but it looks like it's heading up the Hudson before we see any secondary pop.

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Actually some marginal wet snow over interior that run despite that way west initial ULL. Won't take much correction to get that better....

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Man nothing can go right this winter

 

Frustrating

Dude, your odds in NYC are pretty brutal in this setup. You want to be inland. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually some marginal wet snow over interior that run despite that way west initial ULL. Won't take much correction to get that better....

Hence my prior post regarding future frames.  If it can push eastward and re-develop, that may save a lot more from the marine puke.

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11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Euro showing its dig happy bias at this lead time? 

69388693-4837-45C4-9F79-3C689FFEF711.jpeg

Not in this instance.  This was a phase job that tugged the primary ULL back west.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Hence my prior post regarding future frames.  If it can push eastward and re-develop, that may save a lot more from the marine puke.

That weird fujiwara interaction with the second shortwave early on really caused it to slingshot west...ULL ended up over PIT around 132h...we want that more like philly or the Delmarva. If we get that, then we'll see a significantly colder solution. That's what the 06z EPS did. 

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