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Dr. Dews

January 2020 Discussion

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35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What's the old rule of thumb? The heaviest snow falls about 2 degrees to the left of the ULL track? These long-lived bowling ball ULLs often remind me of that old rule.

Left and north. Right now that favors congrats Dendrite 

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There is definitely potential. Obvious OP runs like the 06z GFS show it but you can see it in the EPS probability maps. 

Marginal airmass means interior and elevated areas are favored. Still, we've got some issues to overcome...mainly making sure the timing is good, but also the ULL track itself...a few of these runs are looping the ULL up a bit too far west initially before it spins east...we eventually flip to snow on those but the initial surge is rain because of the westward track...it doesn't tap into the "cold" to our north and instead draws in a bunch of Atlantic air from the ESE. 

 

So in short, keep a skeptical view of this system but definitely worth tracking because the ceiling on this one is pretty high. 

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Although lower nne might be a prime spot.  On the edge

I disagree with the Pope and Jeffafafa right now this is a helluva signal for a slow moving high 850 east inflow concentrated on CNE and NNE. Watch this one

850WIND-26.gif

250WIND-27.gif

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Although lower nne might be a prime spot.  On the edge

I’m not a big fan of these types of systems up here, It could whiff, Or it could be an occluded piece of crap when and if it got here.

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Fwiw, 06z EPS cooled a nice tick. Only goes out to 144 so can't see beyond that...

 

IMG_4357.PNG

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, 06z EPS cooled a nice tick. Only goes out to 144 so can't see beyond that...

 

IMG_4357.PNG

Look at that east inflow. Slow mover, transient block in Canada. I would imagine that look would be prolific in east upslope areas like Orh hills, Monads, Greens, Berks. Where have we seen this before....

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look at that east inflow. Slow mover, transient block in Canada. I would imagine that look would be prolific in east upslope areas like Orh hills, Monads, Greens, Berks. Where have we seen this before....

CNE/ SNE is favored in this. Especially hilly terrain. It keeps digging . Don’t discount us 

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Love the look of closing off 500 as the ULL tracks through the region...obviously still too early to determine where the track will be but it's a great signal. Also, it's a marginal airmass ahead of it but thankfully it isn't too crazy warm. maybe a few degrees C? PWATS approaching 1'' too in within the inflow of warm air...plenty of moisture to work with should that signal hold. 

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look at that east inflow. Slow mover, transient block in Canada. I would imagine that look would be prolific in east upslope areas like Orh hills, Monads, Greens, Berks. Where have we seen this before....

A hubby and Pete kind of winter.

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2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

keeps digging everyone will be favored, hopefully we don't overcorrect and get PC skies

I was thinking the same thing.  Congrats NJ while we have cloudy skies and flurries. 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look at that east inflow. Slow mover, transient block in Canada. I would imagine that look would be prolific in east upslope areas like Orh hills, Monads, Greens, Berks. Where have we seen this before....

Yes. 06z EPS would destroy the interior...esp east slopes. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

CNE/ SNE is favored in this. Especially hilly terrain. It keeps digging . Don’t discount us 

It’s a week out. Nobody is favored. There are so many things to figure out. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a week out. Nobody is favored. There are so many things to figure out. 

6 days

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. 06z EPS would destroy the interior...esp east slopes. 

Good Morning Will, do you think everything is still ont he table, as in cutter to miss or have we tighten the goalpoast to someone in SNE/NNE is gonna get smoked?

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

6 days

Just starts 6 days. Same thing. I don’t see confidence quite yet given this setup. It has potential, but I’m not sure I would say what region is favored. Given this winter’s behavior and all the pieces not even close to being resolved, lots of questions.

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3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Good Morning Will, do you think everything is still ont he table, as in cutter to miss or have we tighten the goalpoast to someone in SNE/NNE is gonna get smoked?

Yep. All still possible. Could miss our whole forum still...but I'll say that last night and early this morning definitely increased the chances of a meaningful snowfall somewhere in New England. 

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22 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

keeps digging everyone will be favored, hopefully we don't overcorrect and get PC skies

I always bounce back and forth on this... but I'd almost take cirrus over rain at this point. Been 1-4" and mix the entire winter, it's driving me nuts.

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I always bounce back and forth on this... but I'd almost take cirrus over rain at this point. Been 1-4" and mix the entire winter, it's driving me nuts.

Welcome to my childhood. 

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I always bounce back and forth on this... but I'd almost take cirrus over rain at this point. Been 1-4" and mix the entire winter, it's driving me nuts.

Was just thinking the same. We are starting to rebuild a useful pack and I don’t want to lose what we have. If we have to get light snows to keep what we have, I’ll take it. 

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