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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

6 days

Just starts 6 days. Same thing. I don’t see confidence quite yet given this setup. It has potential, but I’m not sure I would say what region is favored. Given this winter’s behavior and all the pieces not even close to being resolved, lots of questions.

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3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Good Morning Will, do you think everything is still ont he table, as in cutter to miss or have we tighten the goalpoast to someone in SNE/NNE is gonna get smoked?

Yep. All still possible. Could miss our whole forum still...but I'll say that last night and early this morning definitely increased the chances of a meaningful snowfall somewhere in New England. 

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I always bounce back and forth on this... but I'd almost take cirrus over rain at this point. Been 1-4" and mix the entire winter, it's driving me nuts.

Was just thinking the same. We are starting to rebuild a useful pack and I don’t want to lose what we have. If we have to get light snows to keep what we have, I’ll take it. 

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Some minoring concern there for data sparseness/assimilation techniques. The Jan 26 governing mechanics in the E, are still almost full-body contained over eastern Pacific region.

Teleconnectors can be used to offer "correction vectoring," but as I opined yesterday ..those are iffy at best for present employment.  The climate prediction center's ( and probably EPS dervatives as well ..) PNA as of last check, they are/have been indicating mode change. Rising -3 or so SD to nearly or slightly above 0? Not a huge deal, no .. but significant enough to throw some questions wrt to amplitude down stream. The PNA is a massive domain region, and if the western side of it is pulling the index downward, we may be at a loss as to the scale/degree/anticipation over eastern N/A.  Adding to that, the 'relaxation' and receded HC stuff, shortening wave lengths installing more curved field, as well, reduction in ambient geostrophic velocities ..it all sends determinism into uncharted waters.  Probably this sounds more daunting than really is... just be leery as Will was also mentioning.

From orbit this thing is really not a slug of identifiable S/W accessing a physical kick-back from R-wave redistribution blah blah constructive interference – although I am noticing a 70 to 80 kt wind max more identifiable very recently in the runs. Otherwise, S/W fragmentation amid an amorphous sort of meso-synpotic L/W that seems to coalesce one, given time.  Due more so to 'emergence' of where/when said constructive interference will begin to take place.. sort of mid MV to upper MA...seemingly ideal. Lot to take in there... sorry.

I still feel pretty strongly that this system's merely missing the N/stream insert at a critical/climo timing to really gin up .. If only! But even so, I'm noticing that about 2/3rds of the guidance, regardless of species/type, are shedding ~ 4 to 6 dm of heights off the 500 mb core as this lifts from the lower OV across the upper MA and possibly ( finger's cross ) along that critical 1 to 3 deg of latitude S of LI – typical snow route. And if the mid level heights are indeed falling while that happens... that's a potential red flag.

Thinking aloud here.

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you see similarities to Dec 92?

Yeah some. But keep in mind that was a system that looks like this on steroids. Some of the basics are similar. 

But if everything goes "right", this has a pretty high ceiling...esp interior. 

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