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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kevin hates when folks tell him what he doesn’t want to hear...pattern does not look good but hopefully it snows anyway r guidance is wrong.

It doesn’t not look good. That’s the thing. If it looked terrible so be it. But it doesn’t. So why you guys are melting is odd. It’s certainly more than serviceable. Great pattern... no. Decent... absolutely 

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GFS actually has some snow next weekend now. The central Canada ridging is forcing some confluence and heights down to the east in Quebec which gives a decent high.

None of this is really meaningful right now...but it shows what the ensembles were showing....if you get a decent high up there, then we can still score something with the storm approaching from the south.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS actually has some snow next weekend now. The central Canada ridging is forcing some confluence and heights down to the east in Quebec which gives a decent high.

None of this is really meaningful right now...but it shows what the ensembles were showing....if you get a decent high up there, then we can still score something with the storm approaching from the south.

2015 snow retention is not happening with temps staying below freezing for weeks...It is January, not March so that look might just find a way to keep bumping us up to normal snowfall this year. I am sitting at almost 11, after today maybe 15ish. I have no clue what my actual climo average is here, but maybe around 45 inches? So I have a good ways to go, but will probably end up close, last year 35" was all I could get....

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Take with a grain of salt, but CFS weekly still looks good! Probably cause only model going to phase 8

The CFS and Euro/GFS are both likely wrong to an extent on the MJO.  If you take the tendencies of all of them my guess is it goes through 7 harder.  Spends more time in the middle.  And exits out into 6.  I don’t think a trajectory through 8 occurs nor does  a reemergence into 4 or 5 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The CFS and Euro/GFS are both likely wrong to an extent on the MJO.  If you take the tendencies of all of them my guess is it goes through 7 harder.  Spends more time in the middle.  And exits out into 6.  I don’t think a trajectory through 8 occurs nor does  a reemergence into 4 or 5 

Are any of these models affected by things such as volcanic eruptions, massive Aussie fires? Just seems like the longer range has been quite erratic recently.

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The CFS and Euro/GFS are both likely wrong to an extent on the MJO.  If you take the tendencies of all of them my guess is it goes through 7 harder.  Spends more time in the middle.  And exits out into 6.  I don’t think a trajectory through 8 occurs nor does  a reemergence into 4 or 5 

Emerging in 6 is great considering the alternative of 4 5. Hopefully the next wave makes it to 8 and we have another great March.

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We need Tip to give us a detailed description of the d7-8 euro where he hears birds chirping the day before the storm and the inside of the his car is warmed from the sun...then dark clouds move in and noodles start falling from the sky and the chimney smoke is now drifting southwest...and everything flips to heavy wet snow. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We need Tip to give us a detailed description of the d7-8 euro where he hears birds chirping the day before the storm and the inside of the his car is warmed from the sun...then dark clouds move in and noodles start falling from the sky and the chimney smoke is now drifting southwest...and everything flips to heavy wet snow. 

That's a nice look

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We need Tip to give us a detailed description of the d7-8 euro where he hears birds chirping the day before the storm and the inside of the his car is warmed from the sun...then dark clouds move in and noodles start falling from the sky and the chimney smoke is now drifting southwest...and everything flips to heavy wet snow. 

The day after Christine rejected him and said no to the prom.

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