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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Now, I know some of you are not a fan of HM... For what's worth, he is a professional meteorologist and he sees the Nao going negative in about a week, and said to not pay attention to the GFS Showing the cutter for next week. Several opportunities for Coastal storms coming up. I'm going to take that as a positive and something to look forward to instead of all the negativity and craziness of these models. May the best man win LOL

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Looking over the last 24 hours ..it occurs to me. 

Firstly, this cyclone's trajectory is a climate no-no for snow.  The fact that it is destined to snow anyway has causality that is way > 50 % driven by anomalies, relative to climate norms. 

This system's 'snowier profile' is almost entirely secondarily emergent off the speed of it's translation through the flow.  It's large, and it's over, in 9 hours.   

The column from BUFF-BOS/ White Plains, NY - PWM is so cold initially, the atmosphere simply does not have time to warm up to flip to rain, by the time the deeper QPF dynamics are gone.. In some respects, "SWFE" all have that similar genetic trait,... in that there is enough cold in the bank - so to speak - that it overruns for awhile.  It's hard to separate the two. But this making that effect much more coherently clear the way in which it's synoptics are portrayed/looped .. exaggerated.   Very interesting...  but I suspect with the high in eastern Ontario, having corrected weaker as we've approached this event, this thing would have otherwise found its way back to 34 and light/moderate rain, if it were moving slower more akin to climate speeds. It's being faster than normal, outpaces that. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah who wants to hear reality. 

Everyone keeps Freaking out because things keep going back and forth. But a lot of the bigger meteorologists keep saying it's going to change. They can't be completely wrong. We're just a forum of Weather Geeks that Thrive and love weather and snow LOL I'm still very optimistic. You should be to

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1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Everyone keeps Freaking out because things keep going back and forth. But a lot of the bigger meteorologists keep saying it's going to change. They can't be completely wrong. We're just a forum of Weather Geeks that Thrive and love weather and snow LOL I'm still very optimistic. You should be to

It's ok. Like we said earlier, there are ways it could work..or waysit could go to crap. 

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13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Everyone keeps Freaking out because things keep going back and forth. But a lot of the bigger meteorologists keep saying it's going to change. They can't be completely wrong. We're just a forum of Weather Geeks that Thrive and love weather and snow LOL I'm still very optimistic. You should be to

Size matters?

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17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I think the day 8 system comes back as at least SECS. And first one of the season to watch that has a appreciable shot at becoming a MECS...SNE also in the game on this ...My first *low* confidence guess...

Yeah, GFS still not showing it this run but the pattern is there for a system around the 25th.

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