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Dr. Dews

January 2020 Discussion

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There were def not any caveats mentioned. None. All mets were on board and sitting fat and happy. The point is the models were wrong and changed. They’ll be wrong this time and we’ll see them change again. So you stay the course, don’t melt and understand it will snow and not be +5-10 the next three weeks 

This is why I don’t really believe it until I see it. 2001-02 and other awful winters also had a lot of long range false hopes. 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There were def not any caveats mentioned. None. All mets were on board and sitting fat and happy. The point is the models were wrong and changed. They’ll be wrong this time and we’ll see them change again. So you stay the course, don’t melt and understand it will snow and not be +5-10 the next three weeks 

Lol being 11-15 days out is always a caveat. Everyone should know that.

The newer guidance looks pretty unstable in that time frame so I wouldn't jump off the bridge over it. 

But I suspect many will if the D8-10 period doesn't produce a wintry storm. 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dudes gone. 

It would do you well to listen. A lot of people actually look at everything and try to give their best judgement on what may happen. It’s pretty ugly, but could be active. When it’s peak climo, things can get snowy, but overall....I’m not a fan of the look. 

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33 minutes ago, Hazey said:


For them? Yes. I just use the term figuratively.

Yes, the literal Old Testament BECS passage reads thus: "And the Lord was very roth with the doubters who cried "torch", yea, and in his righteous vengeance he sent unto His people the Mauler, as told in the Scriptures. And Manitoba did birth the beast, and the Gulf Stream did forge its hoary heart, and lo, the clouds did burst over New England, and the wind did scream, and the knickers were buried, and the waters did crash upon the shore, and when the dawn awakened all unrepentant doubters were smited, in God's mercy, yea. And from the chosen faithful of Harwich and Moosup and Wilmington and Tolland Massif there arose a glorious cry, and there was much rejoicing." Here endeth the lesson. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It would do you well to listen. A lot of people actually look at everything and try to give their best judgement on what may happen. It’s pretty ugly, but could be active. When it’s peak climo, things can get snowy, but overall....I’m not a fan of the look. 

In all seriousness, I think you are spending too much time looking at weather and obsessing over it.  Instead of ebb and flow as eps looks good one run and not so good the next... just don’t look for a few days. Get your head clear 

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yes, the literal Old Testament BECS passage reads thus: "And the Lord was very roth with the doubters who cried "torch", yea, and in his righteous vengeance he sent unto His people the Mauler, as told in the Scriptures. And Manitoba did birth the beast, and the Gulf Stream did forge its hoary heart, and lo, the clouds did burst over New England, and the wind did scream, and the knickers were buried, and the waters did crash upon the shore, and all unrepentant doubters were smited, in God's mercy, yea. And from the chosen faithful of Harwich and Moosup and Wilmington and Tolland Massif there arose a glorious cry, and there was much rejoicing." Here endeth the lesson. 

And the Pope looked around him and smiled and said "it is good".

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Here's the GEFS and EPS below. They are both pretty bullish on a system somewhere near us next weekend but you can see the marginal temps too. It could easily be rain on a more west track or even a whiff SE. 

I suspect the fate of this system will drastically change perceptions of the pattern regardless. 

 

IMG_4331.PNG

IMG_4332.PNG

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In all seriousness, I think you are spending too much time looking at weather and obsessing over it.  Instead of ebb and flow as eps looks good one run and not so good the next... just don’t look for a few days. Get your head clear 

Well, it is his job...

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In all seriousness, I think you are spending too much time looking at weather and obsessing over it.  Instead of ebb and flow as eps looks good one run and not so good the next... just don’t look for a few days. Get your head clear 

In all seriousness, stick to sales.

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Canadian should have the W NE and Mass weenies excited for next weekend as it has the storm do a crawl across the south coast

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_34.png

 

Clown mapgem_asnow_neus_38.png

 

24 hour clown map but it goes more than 24 hours:

gem_asnow24_neus_34.png

 

Its the GEM but whatever

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Could any mets comment on why the Euro ensembles puked all over themselves in the last week regarding temps? I know Scott and perhaps Tip were mentioning this pretty early on.  It was disconcerting watching them push deep cold a week ago then do a remarkable turnaround. 

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Next weekend is an example of Hudson Bay Ridging. Sometimes that bootleg ridging can allow for something to pop amid a Pacific driven look. Peak climo does help.

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Could any mets comment on why the Euro ensembles puked all over themselves in the last week regarding temps? I know Scott and perhaps Tip were mentioning this pretty early on.  It was disconcerting watching them push deep cold a week ago then do a remarkable turnaround. 

Excited Pacific jet, possibly MJO driven. That can happen. It only takes one s/w to break down the ridge and the dam sort of breaks if you will. I will say not every member was on board. The mean though skewed the look to more -EPO ridging. Ironically, the GFS op was never really on board. It kept showing a PAC driven look.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the GEFS and EPS below. They are both pretty bullish on a system somewhere near us next weekend but you can see the marginal temps too. It could easily be rain on a more west track or even a whiff SE. 

I suspect the fate of this system will drastically change perceptions of the pattern regardless. 

 

IMG_4331.PNG

IMG_4332.PNG

I dunno. I think it’s emotions that are getting the best of people right now. I take this look on this guidance at day 7 any day of winter, unless of course you’re not wanting  a snowstorm. Don’t the best snowstorms almost always come with the rain/snow line not far from the coast? Anyway I think it’s one of those cases, if it comes to fruition. Moisture rich and no ptype concerns are two sides of the same coin. Can’t have it both ways...

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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I dunno. I think it’s emotions that are getting the best of people right now. I take this look on this guidance at day 7 any day of winter, unless of course you’re not wanting  a snowstorm. Don’t the best snowstorms almost always come with the rain/snow line not far from the coast? Anyway I think it’s one of those cases, if it comes to fruition. Moisture rich and no ptype concerns are two sides of the same coin. Can’t have it both ways...

That doesn’t look too bad to mine weenie eyes.

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What would happen if you just didn’t look at models for 2-3 days? Where’s the harm? Why not give it a try?

He’d get fired by his employer?

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2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

He’d get fired by his employer?

He could just look at upper air charts over flight zones. Doesn’t need to obsess over the weather that will affect his BY in S Weymouth 

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20 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I dunno. I think it’s emotions that are getting the best of people right now. I take this look on this guidance at day 7 any day of winter, unless of course you’re not wanting  a snowstorm. Don’t the best snowstorms almost always come with the rain/snow line not far from the coast? Anyway I think it’s one of those cases, if it comes to fruition. Moisture rich and no ptype concerns are two sides of the same coin. Can’t have it both ways...

Well with a better airmass we'd have more wiggle room on track. Say for example, we get the system tracking a bit west into PA and it's trying to develop off the Delmarva or jersey coast...a marginal airmass might cause problems in that scenario for SNE. But a colder airmass and that's all snow all the way. 

If the storm is already fully developed at the benchmark, then I agree it doesn't matter so much, but that is just the mean and it isn't showing all those miller B/redeveloping scenarios on storms that initially try to go a little further west. 

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Kevin is doing what I call passive melting. It’s a cute psychological experiment. It’s basically internal melting, but put the blame on the person who’s information is not conforming to your opinions. 

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The whole point was Scooter spends far too much time looking at and obsessing about each model run. And a deeper dive would reveal it’s because he’s worried when it’s 42 tomorrow in S Wey and the west winds melted what falls today that his kids will be trapped inside. For him, when there’s no snow and nothing to track and it’s too cold and wet and children are stuck inside... emotionally he simply cannot handle that. It stresses him out to the Nth degree.

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well with a better airmass we'd have more wiggle room on track. Say for example, we get the system tracking a bit west into PA and it's trying to develop off the Delmarva or jersey coast...a marginal airmass might cause problems in that scenario for SNE. But a colder airmass and that's all snow all the way. 

If the storm is already fully developed at the benchmark, then I agree it doesn't matter so much, but that is just the mean and it isn't showing all those miller B/redeveloping scenarios on storms that initially try to go a little further west. 

Yea but at/near peak climo means antecedent airmass matters much less if we get a deep coastal low. Late January means deep cold to tap is close by...I think too much focus on temp at onset, and missing bigger picture. 

This also has characteristics of a Miller A  with subsequent phase. The sub tropical jet appears to be involved early on in this setup...May seem like a minor detail but reason I’m brining this up, is bc I think this evolution has a much better chance of being dynamic enough to quickly overcome any antecedent airmass issues...

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin is doing what I call passive melting. It’s a cute psychological experiment. It’s basically internal melting, but put the blame on the person who’s information is not conforming to your opinions. 

 

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The whole point was Scooter spends far too much time looking at and obsessing about each model run. And a deeper dive would reveal it’s because he’s worried when it’s 42 tomorrow in S Wey and the west winds melted what falls today that his kids will be trapped inside. For him, when there’s no snow and nothing to track and it’s too cold and wet and children are stuck inside... emotionally he simply cannot handle that. It stresses him out to the Nth degree.

This is like some high quality, 8-mile battle rapping here.

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