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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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36 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

12z GFS looks good .... if you live in Maine.  

The overall pattern looks ok.  The day 10 upper level energy actually gets forced under us despite being in the upper midwest cut off... that shows the effect of the blocking regime in Canada...problem is it scours out all the cold first...the Ocean Storm doesn't phase this time and so it slides out too far south to impact the flow and thus the southerly flow ahead of the trough torches our temps.  The storm is forced under the blocking but it doesn't matter.  Details in the longwave pattern matter.

After that is when we have a real shot according to all guidance.  IF the long range guidance is close to right there is a legit good window day 12-15 and the GFS almost is a hit but the system is disjointed and fails to come together...too much NS interference and a sloppy phase.  That would be a supreme example of "bad luck" in an actual very good pattern.  

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14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs individuals look better for the day 10 threat . Definitely some nice hits especially for northern areas . 

Here's the mean Mslp panel at hr 234

 

PhotoPictureResizer_200116_122219313_crop_1425x1168.jpg

I would not totally give up on the day 10 threat until its into the medium range.  There is an obvious issue...the cold is very stale by then and with the amount of ridging in Quebec...if there isn't enough of a 50/50 to keep confluence and resist the southerly flow ahead of the trough we will torch.   But...there are vorts flying around and some do end up in a spot that could help...but the majority of the guidance says they either don't amplify enough or are not in the right spot at the right time.  One way to really increase the chances is if the ocean storm next week phases with the NS and gets pulled up into the 50/50 location.  That would change the equation and guidance would flip to a colder solution right quick.  But its not a high probability ATT.

After that all the guidance opens a legit window as whatever happens better or worse with day 10 they all agree that wave WILL amplify and knock down the ridging to our northeast and create a favorable window behind it with a pretty good looking trough axis and ridging across central Canada.  It's the best look we have had yet for a legit snowstorm.  Of course that isn't saying much...its a pretty low bar.  

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Bingo. Getting crushed this week. I've passed the torch until further notice. As much as I like snow... I like making money better...

And also the fact that we are punting until 12-15 days down the road should allow you to focus on work.  And if history is our guide 12-15 days down the road will yield nothing more than another 12-15 days down the road. You should be flush with cash after this winter. 

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38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs individuals look better for the day 10 threat . Definitely some nice hits especially for northern areas . 

Here's the mean Mslp panel at hr 234

 

PhotoPictureResizer_200116_122219313_crop_1425x1168.jpg

The overall look day 10-15 is about as good as we can ask for on the GEFS

There is definitely high pressure heading into the day 10 threat...we just need slightly lower heights near 50/50 to hold it in...

HighThere.thumb.png.04481e00f4c38d02da024e7bd6c7c79d.png

 

After that...this is an excellent looking pressure profile...temps...and precip for an east coast snowstorm...

pressurepattern.thumb.png.bd59b02be8ce7810326be98c859b7bbe.png

Tempprofile.thumb.png.be864ed3c67dc8a5958f7f1384d23438.png

precippattern.thumb.png.de86a95aa60f5477d7f6c6344beae9c6.png

 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How much snow did you get last week?

3 but but 4 hours of snow is not a real storm. We havent been able to get within 5 days of a real threat and its almost February. I am at an all time low with winter blues

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

3 but but 4 hours of snow is not a real storm. We havent been able to get within 5 days of a real threat and its almost February. I am at an all time low with winter blues

That's odd...I checked the calendar and it says "January 16" today, barely half-way through the month.

(And the Grammar Nazi in me should correct your "its almost February" to "it's almost February".)

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the op euro is a total dumpster fire disaster, but its just one op run at long range so....

But it does EVERYTHING the opposite of how we want... doesn't phase the ocean storm next week and slides out out, then washes out the day 9 threat completely so it doesn't amplify...crashes energy into the west and sets up a full latitude western trough eastern ridge...and leaves us in a total dumpster fire day 10.  LOL  

FIRE.thumb.png.55c0d51bc935ab575bde0ac0ec6f455e.png

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

the op euro is a total dumpster fire disaster, but its just one op run at long range so....

But it does EVERYTHING the opposite of how we want... doesn't phase the ocean storm next week and slides out out, then washes out the day 9 threat completely so it doesn't amplify...crashes energy into the west and sets up a full latitude western trough eastern ridge...and leaves us in a total dumpster fire day 10.  LOL  

Starting to wonder if day 9 sneaks up in the medium range...

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43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

the op euro is a total dumpster fire disaster, but its just one op run at long range so....

But it does EVERYTHING the opposite of how we want... doesn't phase the ocean storm next week and slides out out, then washes out the day 9 threat completely so it doesn't amplify...crashes energy into the west and sets up a full latitude western trough eastern ridge...and leaves us in a total dumpster fire day 10.  LOL  

FIRE.thumb.png.55c0d51bc935ab575bde0ac0ec6f455e.png

It's only +2 - +6 that's like half as warm as January has been so far.

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What Bob actually wrote:

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Bingo. Getting crushed this week. I've passed the torch until further notice. 

What the weenies see:

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Bingo. Getting crushed this week. This winter is a torch until further notice. 

 

Edit:  Ninja'd by Zugzwang!

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ive seen this movie before......its jan 16 and we are still 10 days out---from tracking a threat......a threat that we are not sure even exists yet....we are chasing  day 10 storms...except there is no storrm showing up 10 days away to chase. Its as hopeless as Ive ever seen a winter

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Day 9 torch? Probably, I could see that happening. :devilsmiley:

Mercy this forum is somethin' else, lol What we need is swings right now...this weekend is one swing--maybe we get a single at best. Next weekend is perhaps another swing yet to be determined. See, I think my relative calm about this winter may be a bit illogical...because I believe in the every 3-4 trend saying BWI is due for a footer this year (and all it would take is for one of the opportunities to come together a la Jan. 2000. Would love for it to be next weekend because we're nice and cold for most of next week. But I'm trying not to put all the eggs in that basket!)

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro has zero snow for us in the EPS mean for 16 days

That's not true...but it was a pretty bad run.  It really goes crazy with the ridge in the northeast day 7-11 and its lights out on any chance there.... then there are a scattering of hits in the day 12-15 range but nothing to the level of the GEFS and GEPS.  The pattern looks close enough to workable that it's not out of the question something changes and we sneak a threat in but the last couple EPS runs have not been friendly.  

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