• Member Statistics

    15,845
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ianspace
    Newest Member
    ianspace
    Joined
wdrag

Minor to moderate winter event M-Tue Dec 16-17, 2019

Recommended Posts

Saw people talking about the Ice Storm warnings, here is the criteria. It's 0.5...0.25 farther SW.

The Freezing Rain Advisory was discontinued, it'll now be under a Winter Weather Advisory but the Ice Storm Warning is still in use.

 

fzrawrng.jpg

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Saw people talking about the Ice Storm warnings, here is the criteria. It's 0.5...0.25 farther SW.

The Freezing Rain Advisory was discontinued, it'll now be under a Winter Weather Advisory but the Ice Storm Warning is still in use.

 

fzrawrng.jpg

 

Always though that map was odd - why have NYC Metro with higher ZR criteria than Sussex/Warren/Morris, where ZR is far more common.  I'm sure some of that was due to the office boundaries, which is why I like the current ice storm warning criteria, which is at least more consistent from east to west (although I'd orient it more SW to NE than this with Union/Essex/Hudson and NYC/LI in the 0.25" criterion.  

 

ER_FZ_Rain_WRNG_Criteria(1).jpg

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

17 minutes ago, Wxnyc said:

Since the November 15th debacle of last year , NYC has been salting and sanding the roads to death every time there’s is chance for a flurry . Bad for the cars bad for the roads .

Refresh my memory. I remember getting a few inches last November, but what was the debacle part?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

Always though that map was odd - why have NYC Metro with higher ZR criteria than Sussex/Warren/Morris, where ZR is far more common.  I'm sure some of that was due to the office boundaries, which is why I like the current ice storm warning criteria, which is at least more consistent from east to west (although I'd orient it more SW to NE than this with Union/Essex/Hudson and NYC/LI in the 0.25" criterion.  

 

ER_FZ_Rain_WRNG_Criteria(1).jpg

ah i see, where did you find that, id like to see if there are updates to any other wwa or wsws

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, David-LI said:

 

Refresh my memory. I remember getting a few inches last November, but what was the debacle part?

If you were on the roads you would definitely remember. They were a disaster across the metro area. The snow came down hard and caused chaos and many roads were untreated. Many people were stranded for hours. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

 

Refresh my memory. I remember getting a few inches last November, but what was the debacle part?

The bad forecast is what led to it.  DOT thinks it was something else so now they overreact.  Anytime a daytime snow forecast is blown it leads to a catastrophic commute.  It happened on 2/11/83, 1/22/87, 12/5/03 and last November and always will.  Anytime snow is forecast beyond an inch or two many more people work from home or commute via public transport

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

If you were on the roads you would definitely remember. They were a disaster across the metro area. The snow came down hard and caused chaos and many roads were untreated. Many people were stranded for hours. 

I don't remember much about that storm. I was probably working until late from home. I am reading now that NYC was paralyzed pretty much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, David-LI said:

 

Refresh my memory. I remember getting a few inches last November, but what was the debacle part?

Utter chaos last November West of the Hudson River when we had 6-8" of snow in a short period of time right at rush hour. Took many folks over four hours to get home and some never made it.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Utter chaos last November West of the Hudson River when we had 6-8" of snow in a short period of time right at rush hour. Took many folks over four hours to get home and some never made it.

Also the prediction in the city was for an inch, so they never got the plows or sand and salt trucks prepared. That's why they're over reacting this year every time the word snow is even mentioned. They're now acting like this is Atlanta and not a city that averages 30 inches of snow a season.

Typical government over reaction to criticism they took, with the dumb as a rock mayor heading up the pack. This is no knock at either party, neither of which I'm found of, but Deblasio is exceptional in his stupidity IMO. Stupidity is the one thing he excels at.

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Utter chaos last November West of the Hudson River when we had 6-8" of snow in a short period of time right at rush hour. Took many folks over four hours to get home and some never made it.

friend was stuck on some highway in Jersey (trying to get home to Hoboken) for 8.5 hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Utter chaos last November West of the Hudson River when we had 6-8" of snow in a short period of time right at rush hour. Took many folks over four hours to get home and some never made it.

We had only 2-3. Still a disaster. Just came from the supermarket. Wasn't paying attention to the forecast cause frankly, for my area, there isn't much to worry about. Couldn't understand the crowds; then the cashier asked what it was doing outside...then I realized there was SNOW! in the forecast somewhere in the continental United States. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Also the prediction in the city was for an inch, so they never got the plows or sand and salt trucks prepared. That's why they're over reacting this year every time the word snow is even mentioned. They're now acting like this is Atlanta and not a city that averages 30 inches of snow a season.

Typical government over reaction to criticism they took, with the dumb as a rock mayor heading up the pack. This is no knock at either party, neither of which I'm found of, but Deblasio is exceptional in his stupidity IMO. Stupidity is the one thing he excels at.

Agreed. It seemed like after November last year, both NJ State Government and NYC municipal government couldn't admit their own shortcomings, but instead blamed everyone else. Just textbook poor leadership. And I say this after the previous administrations (equal opportunity!) also goofed up and blamed forecasters in the past. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

Always though that map was odd - why have NYC Metro with higher ZR criteria than Sussex/Warren/Morris, where ZR is far more common.  I'm sure some of that was due to the office boundaries, which is why I like the current ice storm warning criteria, which is at least more consistent from east to west (although I'd orient it more SW to NE than this with Union/Essex/Hudson and NYC/LI in the 0.25" criterion.  

 

ER_FZ_Rain_WRNG_Criteria(1).jpg

Agree doesn't make sense NYC/LI have the same criteria as NW NJ/NE PA. .25 Ice Accretion in NYC would be a big deal, it almost never happens.

 

I think a.50 ice accretion is looking more and more likely for Northern NJ and the LHV, this storm is no joke and seems to be being downplayed by many.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM no joke with that initial precip, if only upper levels were a wee bit colder this could very different.

Heavy precip over NYC  and surrounding areas with temps near freezing for NYC and below just to the north and west.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The NAM is 1-3 hours of snow on the front end followed by a quick switch to sleet and freezing rain. The surface freezing line never really makes it North of Rt 80.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Also the prediction in the city was for an inch, so they never got the plows or sand and salt trucks prepared. That's why they're over reacting this year every time the word snow is even mentioned. They're now acting like this is Atlanta and not a city that averages 30 inches of snow a season.

Typical government over reaction to criticism they took, with the dumb as a rock mayor heading up the pack. This is no knock at either party, neither of which I'm found of, but Deblasio is exceptional in his stupidity IMO. Stupidity is the one thing he excels at.

 

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wow this is alot of ice and sleet

namconus_asnow_neus_8.png

If that map were to occur it would be serious even in my neck of the woods. But these maps always seem off, also how are they measuring ZR? That would have the bulk of concerns around the Watchungs if I am reading this right

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wow this is alot of ice and sleet

namconus_asnow_neus_8.png

That's interesting because the precip type maps show mainly rain for the city and mainly freezing rain just north of the city. The snow/sleet is confined further north. Definitely a tricky forecast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

That's interesting because the precip type maps show mainly rain for the city and mainly freezing rain just north of the city. The snow/sleet is confined further north. Definitely a tricky forecast.

This isn't snow for the city but sleet. The snow is confined to the north.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I suspect the typical inland areas will be updated to Winter Storm Warnings later tonight for potential of 2-4" of sleet and up to 0.50" of freezing rain.
The last time we had an ice storm warning here it was hoisted after the event was almost over the damage was already done.
Agreed. I posted this early. Days since the last ice storm warning. 0.5" is needed for that and I don't think anywhere in the area will get that much. 10542b51cea7754af0da4868fae0968e.jpg

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This isn't snow for the city but sleet. The snow is confined to the north.

Some snow the initial batch is snow followed by sleet and some freezing rain switching to heavy rain around 1am

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Agreed. It seemed like after November last year, both NJ State Government and NYC municipal government couldn't admit their own shortcomings, but instead blamed everyone else. Just textbook poor leadership. And I say this after the previous administrations (equal opportunity!) also goofed up and blamed forecasters in the past. 
If you're going to blame some one the only thing that can be blamed is the under forecasting by the models. Nothing that morning really indicated it would over perform. Why would they send plows out when the forecast called for 1 inch of snow? If commuters woke up and saw the forecast called for 3 to 6 half of them that drove wouldn't have. By the time the city wanted to deploy the plows and additional salt trucks traffic was already building. So now people complain when they don't have snow removal equipment out and also complain when they do. Which is it? Some people on here just like to hear themself complain.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I never saw the NAM go so heavy on freezing rain before. Even if just 25% of that freezes without running off, it will be a problem.

A5A5B2E1-15B2-40D7-8F2F-5CC5E49648D0.png.f30e892d8dcde2db2a5a7541fb1b29c1.png

93ED68E6-4EC9-4A8D-A067-C68B54C1ABD0.png.447ab01133c844c38347f5f8dad06c66.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.