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12/17 Messy Mix

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Just now, CTValleySnowMan said:

Latest trends on some mesos suck here for snow, hopefully just noise and we throw down 2-4 or 3-5 type amounts followed by a good dose of pack preserving sleet and ZR.  

You're good for 2-4" and then some paint peeling pingers to strengthen the pack.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Trend isn’t your friend.... hopefully this doesn’t turn into a coating to pellets to rain. 

You’ll get a few inches still I think

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 like some weather people that had told me they dont look at models hours before a storm . because storm wont change that much. to many look at weather models during or hours before the storm. storm wont change to what models say hours before the storm.

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Time for now cast..it’s on the doorstep now. Sometimes it’s time to just see what plays out and put the models away.  The calls have been made, let’s see what transpires.    Enjoy whatever comes. 
 

 

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Gotta say. This system hasn’t been the easiest for models to grasp. Still some late shifts going on. Not a stellar performance by far. Going to be a long winter if this how things play out.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Time for now cast..it’s on the doorstep now. Sometimes it’s time to just see what plays out and put the models away.  The calls have been made, let’s see what transpires.    Enjoy whatever comes. 

Still a good 12hrs before we see a flake here, I'll know by you guys obs how this is going to play out but i have a good idea already.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I have a hard time buying hrrr’s sfc temps. I’ll go down with the ship if we hit 34/35. 

Maybe at the end when it is a light foggy mist to put a surreal enhancement on your snow/ice encased surroundings.

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1 minute ago, blizzard24 said:

that why i like brad field he sticks with his forecast doesnt change every model run.

I’m always pro ‘stick to your forecast’ but there are times where one should and needs to adjust. Not sure this is one of them though. 

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Just now, dryslot said:

Still a good 12hrs before we see a flake here, I'll know by you guys obs how this is going to play out but i have a good idea already.

Oh ya for you, I was meaning for us SNE folks, it’s a few hours at most from here.  I Should have specified that.  

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m always pro ‘stick to your forecast’ but there are times where one should and needs to adjust. Not sure this is one of them though. 

That’s true, but I don’t think this is an adjustment time.  Stick to it now.  It’s a few hours at most away. Mesos are all over the place. Stick!

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Maybe at the end when it is a light foggy mist to put a surreal enhancement on your snow/ice encased surroundings.

Oh yea it’ll be at the tail end but I still don’t think it happens when the sfc tucks in below LI and that early. Usually in swfe the primary goes into Buf and the sfc low tucks late over Jimmy’s head. I usually warm into the mid 30s then...but this looks different. 

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Surface temps for most of CT stay below freezing for much of CT on most models I've looked at tonight.  SOmnebody is getting a good slug of ice tomorrow.

Kevin is going to be secretly crestfallen when he gets a nice SN/PL event but other CT peeps are posting pictures of ice encased landscapes and skaters on side streets and town sidewalks across Central CT.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah all models north. Classic SWFE. The press, would like to press Kevin's head into a wall.

This storm reminds me a lot to what we had in the winter of 07/08

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