12/17 Messy Mix

[MJO812]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

??? um...that seems to be more than enough from my experience in CT, i imagine NYC would be even more liberal with the cancellations. It depends on road conditions obviously. But almost all schools were cancelled here for the last storm across the state, even the shore and most places only got 2-4, with 0.5-2 at the coast. 

It all depends on timing. If we get 6-12 the night before and it ends at 4AM, there probably will be a 2 hour delay. If the forecast is for 2-4 or even 1-3 and its snowing at 5-9am, schools will be closed.

Not here

They already have the salt spreaders and plows out here and it's not even doing anything. They are really quick here clearing out the streets.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Still , 4 inches ?

There has to be at least 10 inches here to cancel school.

That seems unrealistic. A winter storm warning is issued for an avg of 6". You can bet your bottom dollar if we are expecting 4-8 and its snowing during the AM rush all schools will be closed, and they should be imo.

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I agree. Probably going to be taking things up a bit for the final call. Want to check out the 12Z suite first. 

@weathafella

Deep Thruster & RPM with a 6-8 stripe along the MA boarder/I-90

Similar rpm from prior runs?  Thanks for posting!

[moneypitmike]

29 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

850s start to blow through CT around 12Z and make it all the way up to about just shy of the pass pike before retreating.

Textbook SWFE

20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So if you didn't get a warning it never happened?

That's not my point at all.  My comment was tied to a miss on forecasting on both Dec. 1 and Dec. 3.  Each on their own verified greater than 24-hour warning amounts. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

They cancel school for 4 inches ?

Outside of urban heat islands and up here in the hills...stuff doesn’t just melt on contact. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So another day off of school from 4"of snow? What a screw job for the kids in late June. 

I would love this as a kid. Everyone is checked out by mid June ..attendance is usually horrible for the late makeup days that don’t matter 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Outside of urban heat islands and up here in the hills...stuff doesn’t just melt on contact. 

Except in October when snow isn't able to accumulate.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Also it’s great that there is a Model that sounds like it resembles ( I’m not gonna say anything specific regarding name or size) a few things I saw at “amazing super store “ Saturday nite after dinner. Deep Thunder lol

[DomNH]

I'm not too impressed up this way. Lift looks meh and there is some dry air in the DGZ. Expecting a 1-3''/2-4'' of sand type deal. Front ender looks more exciting by the Pike.

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That early H4-H5 lift usually winds up in virga.

I was trying to time that strongest lift with the arrival of the heavier precip...it did seem to somewhat match. But I do think we'll be dealing with some virga initially but if the intensities pan out hopefully it's brief. 

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

@weatherwiz

Coolwx is a great site to get a quick glance at omega/growth and p-type accumulation, if bufkit isn't your thing. Even so, it's still faster than downloading and loading profiles into bufkit.

6Z GFS has a lot of ice for CT ranging from .1-.6 and NAM from .1-.4 with the exception of BDL. Again southern CT inland from the immediate coast looks to be in the most trouble.

.666 Ice for OXC on the GFS

Coolwx is certainly much more efficient then loading up bufkit profiles. A pretty underrated site as well for data. 

The ice aspect is definitely a tad concerning...though I still think we will fall sort of a significant icing event but it will be bad enough to impact travel. 

 

But in terms of the school cancellation stuff...tomorrow isn't really about snow...it's more the ice aspect. But I remember it being nearly impossible for West Hartford to cancel school growing up...every other surrounding school would be closed and we would be open or delayed. Snow totals had to be like 6-8"+ for us to have school cancelled...with the majority still falling during the early morning. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That seems unrealistic. A winter storm warning is issued for an avg of 6". You can bet your bottom dollar if we are expecting 4-8 and its snowing during the AM rush all schools will be closed, and they should be imo.

You have to remember 10” there is like 2” here. Meaning, most of what falls there melts or runs down into the sewers. The amount of heat and CO2 emissions from cars and trucks alone is enough to melt frozen on contact and the skyscrapers block the precip to begin with. Most kids walk to school anyway as they live on top of each other. They need a lot more to cancel. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

They cancel school for 4 inches ?

It’s pretty ridiculous, they cancelled last Wednesday in almost all of CT for a couple/few inches that literally melted off the roads by 9:00am. That was a shocker

[Ginx snewx]

NYC is flat and urban. 75% of SNE is hilly suburban rural. 

[dryslot]

One would think that would be where a 2 hr delay would work out.

[HoarfrostHubb]

32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

BOS and pike region in general got 10 inches of sand in about 6 hours.

Yeah... I thought it was on the more mundane size, but looking at old reports, you are correct (as is the Sultan)

[weatherwiz]

One thing I've never truly understood is how convection plays a role in how precipitation evolves. From what I've always gathered if there is a ton of convection in the south that can rob moisture and end up screwing us? (Maybe they have a MetEd module on this process...or some papers). Anyways, is that possible here? It seems pretty ripe in the south for convection today. This 12z sounding at LCH is pretty amazing for mid-December. Should be right on the cusp of where convective initiation occurs.

 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah... I thought it was on the more mundane size, but looking at old reports, you are correct (as is the Sultan)

Roughly 8-8.5 hrs on the road. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. 

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The rich keeps getting richer

I'm so jealous 

It's December and you live in NYC

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing I've never truly understood is how convection plays a role in how precipitation evolves. From what I've always gathered if there is a ton of convection in the south that can rob moisture and end up screwing us? (Maybe they have a MetEd module on this process...or some papers). Anyways, is that possible here? It seems pretty ripe in the south for convection today. This 12z sounding at LCH is pretty amazing for mid-December. Should be right on the cusp of where convective initiation occurs.

 

But models do simulate convection. So while the process is real to a point, this isn't 1995 and guidance not handling convection properly. It would have to completely miss the mark on this. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing I've never truly understood is how convection plays a role in how precipitation evolves. From what I've always gathered if there is a ton of convection in the south that can rob moisture and end up screwing us? (Maybe they have a MetEd module on this process...or some papers). Anyways, is that possible here? It seems pretty ripe in the south for convection today. This 12z sounding at LCH is pretty amazing for mid-December. Should be right on the cusp of where convective initiation occurs.

 

Wiz bc you understand soundings much more than I do 

have you ever gone back and looked at soundings from say 10 warning level Events for HFD and say 10 advisory level events and looked at soundings. I imagine if you understand sounding this would be a valuable idea . I just say this bc you post them with all the forecasts (which I wished  I cared More to understand them fully) but it seems like if I was studying met it might actually be something in the curriculum they already had you do to make someone understand not just system flags but also soundings limitations (positive “surprises”)..thou I don’t know if I’m right  (as to how valuable that would be or not )

Especially looking at soundings for analogs 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

But models do simulate convection. So while the process is real to a point, this isn't 1995 and guidance not handling convection properly. It would have to completely miss the mark on this. 

so that's where the issues stemmed in the past? It had to do with poor handling/simulation of convection? Ok...that makes plenty of sense then. I just wasn't sure if there were other aspects involved. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Roughly 8-8.5 hrs on the road. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. 

This shocks me. The big part of being a weenie is knowing when conditions are not conducive for travel. The Nov 2018 storm that brought this area to a standstill for evening rush hour...I left at 3pm before it started snowing. My co workers thought I was panicking...until I saw them the next morning and they said it took them 5hrs to get home. #amxweeniesknow

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This shocks me. The big part of being a weenie is knowing when conditions are not conducive for travel. The Nov 2018 storm that brought this area to a standstill for evening rush hour...I left at 3pm before it started snowing. My co workers thought I was panicking...until I saw them the next morning and they said it took them 5hrs to get home. #amxweeniesknow

I fully planned on a 3hr commute at worst. I had no choice, but to leave at 2 when shift ends. Who on Earth would think it takes 8+hrs for like 26 miles.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

so that's where the issues stemmed in the past? It had to do with poor handling/simulation of convection? Ok...that makes plenty of sense then. I just wasn't sure if there were other aspects involved. 

Models aren't perfect with it, so they'll always be some issues. However, I'm not sure I would plan on a forecast bust in 2019 just prior to an event, because of convection. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

39 minutes ago, dryslot said:

One would think that would be where a 2 hr delay would work out.

Yup, Greenfield is usually good for a half dozen of those a year.

[TalcottWx]

3-6" BOS is my current 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I just remember so many of these type events where this so called variable density just piles up. Billions of flakes versus multi millions I guess would be the description.  As we often reference this type of snow its 12 13 07. I would not be surprised if warning level snows occur right at the line.

Without looking at the data, that may not be a bad comp, Steve...maybe displaced a hair north..

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wiz bc you understand soundings much more than I do 

have you ever gone back and looked at soundings from say 10 warning level Events for HFD and say 10 advisory level events and looked at soundings. I imagine if you understand sounding this would be a valuable idea . I just say this bc you post them with all the forecasts (which I wished  I cared More to understand them fully) but it seems like if I was studying met it might actually be something in the curriculum they already had you do to make someone understand not just system flags but also soundings limitations (positive “surprises”)..thou I don’t know if I’m right  (as to how valuable that would be or not )

I've never done so for winter...but it's something I want to do. I really thought when I went back to school I could do a ton more with studying/research and the exact opposite happened...like I don't really think I have gained any additional (or very little) knowledge in winter wx or severe wx forecasting in the past 6-7 years. 

I'm sure some of the better schools go into some depth/detail on what you mentioned in the bold but not where I went...overall the program is pretty bad. Outside of the equations and atmospheric physics/chemistry (which is tremendous to know and understand and can be a great value when applied to understanding forecast models) I learned absolutely ZERO about forecasting while in school...absolutely nothing. If I never found this board back in 2007 and just went to school I would have little to no knowledge of how to forecast...outside of rip and reading MOS and just looking at the basics on models. 

In terms of forecast soundings we didn't do much with them...except look at a few examples from some random weather events in the 90's and just go over how to differentiate between Precip-types. 

I honestly get really pissed when I think about things b/c of how little I learned over the past 6-7 years. Between school and working 2-3 jobs I had zero time to do much in my own time. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I fully planned on a 3hr commute at worst. I had no choice, but to leave at 2 when shift ends. Who on Earth would think it takes 8+hrs for like 26 miles.

A perfect storm of muthafukkas.

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Roughly 8-8.5 hrs on the road. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. 

Peeing in water jugs